Dwight Jaynes vs Mo Williams, the war is on!

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OneLifeToLive said:
Dwight is Dwight. The team hasn't given him much to bitch about this year. Good for them. Unfortunately, he has found someone to pick on.

If there wasn't something for him to bitch and moan about he would crust up and die.
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You say that like it's a bad thing...

BNM
 
I think most of the posters here are frustrated with Mo and Wright, now Wright has been benched and, and Jaynes pointed out stats which are not surprising.

Mo really is not part of this team's future. CJ will be backup SG, and we need a steadier backup PG, not a flashy turnover machine.
 
Oh my. Slow news week? Someone at CSNNW needs attention?

I actually mentioned this train wreck that occurred that evening when it happened, and searched in vain for a video clip to post here. I’m kind of glad this didn’t going away, because Jaynes looked like a bitter old man that should have been put out to pasture years ago. You know, gone out on top with his Oregon sports Hall of Fame induction. This is just sad watching his body and mind fail him.

I don’t have a glowing opinion of Haynes, but he is definitely a player’s beat writer, and I foresee him garnering some respect after this incident; even after the LA rumors sent Portland fans into the most obnoxious debate since last season.

I suppose I could settle this argument by just replying to Jaynes with, “Jaynes is washed up, Mo is not. #NothingToSeeHere”. But his perception of Mo is one I see repeated on this forum all too often. So let’s do this…

Jaynes’ premise that evening was that Portland is winning despite Mo, not because of Mo’s contributions. And to prove it, he compares Mo to other players.

Mo leads the NBA at the either guard position in assists from off the bench. Hard to make an argument that Mo is a shoot first PG when there is not a single back-up PG in the entire NBA with more assists per game, but people still try.

The point of using stats, advanced or otherwise, is to compare players. What better way to compare them than an actual head-to-head match-up, who's results actually means something – a win, or a loss?

Dwight Jaynes ‏@dwightjaynes
@mowilliams Manu Ginobili, Reggie Jackson, Ramon Sessions, Andre miller, Darren Collison, Jarret Jack, Shaun Livingston, Evans... No mo room

I wanted to start by pointing out that Mo asked Jaynes to name 3 point guards (PG). Ginobili is a shooting guard (SG), and has played all his minutes this season at the SG position.

Ginoblili 26 min 3 reb 3 ast 1 stl 2 to 11 pts -7 (back to back for SA)
Mo 23 min 2 ast 1 blk 2 to 13 pts +8 (back to back for Port)
W 115-105

This is Jackson’s 3rd year with OKC. Obviously this is Mo’s 1st 36 games as a Blazer. One day Jackson may be better than Mo, even much better. But, for all the hype surrounding Jackson, even his biggest proponents acknowledge Jackson lacks experience in pressure situations and it shows - something Mo has a lot of. Jackson brings nothing to the locker room in OKC. That alone makes Mo the better player.

Jackson 29 min 2 reb 1 ast 1 blk 12pts -2 (back to back for OKC)
Mo 25 min 3 reb 6 ast 1 stl 2 to 7 pts -7
W 111-104

Jackson (started this game) 29 min 7 reb 6 ast 1 st 1 to 12pts +2
Refused to give the ball up to Durant (1 point for KD, & 0 assists for Jackson in the 4th quarter), OKC only scored 16 pts that quarter, and he missed 2 FT in the final 2:40

Mo 19 min 1 reb 3 ast 0 to 5 pts -2 (back to back game for Port)
Missed 2 clutch free throws, up 1 point, and was fouled 8 seconds after having come off a 6 min sit on the bench
W 98-94

Sessions 29 min 3 ast 1stl 1 to 14 pts -14
Mo 21 min 10 ast 2 stl 3 to 15 pts +17 (double/double)
W 134-104

Miller 17 min 4 reb 10 pts -4
Mo 26 min 1 reb 3 ast 1 to 11 pts +1
W 113-98

Livingston (started this game) 29 min 2 reb 2 ast 1 stl 23 pts +3
Mo 31 min 5 reb 6 ast 3 stl 2 blk 1 to 12 pts +18 (back to back game for Port)
W 108-98

Evans has played zero minutes as a PG (81.6% of his minutes are played at SF, 18.4% at SG). The Pelicans have been looking to dump Eric Gordon’s (SG) contract more so now than ever because of adding Evans. Note to self, Jaynes did not list Austin Rivers or Eric Gordon, probably because there is a limit of 1 tweet per day. Someone with twitter might be able to verify that for me.

Evans 27 min 6 reb 6 ast 2 stl 2 to 21 pts (on 22 shots) +4
Mo 24 min 2 reb 5 ast 2 to 7 pts -3
W 110-107

Evans 29 min 5 reb 4 ast 2 stl 2 blk 1 to 20pts +5 (hit the game winner)
Mo 30 min 4 reb 5 ast 8pts -5
L 110-108

Jack 28 min 5 reb 4 ast 1 stl 12 pts +9
Mo 23 min 2 reb 6 ast 1 blk 2 to 9 pts +2
W 119-116

Collison 24 min 1 reb 2 ast 6pts -2 (back to back for LAC)
Mo 24 min 1 reb 8 ast 2 to 12 pts +13
W 116-112 OT

Record: 9-1

What we’ve learned:

● To suggest that Mo did not play a positive role in that 9-1 record, or that the other players listed would have been better is simply bush league, Kevin Pelton, Ben Golliver, "journalism".

● If you go out of your way to disparage a player or team, people will pay attention to you for better or for worse. Mission accomplished? I guess if looking like a jackass isn’t important.

It’s too bad this wouldn’t fit into a tweet. I think I’d have to settle on “GFY Jaynes” #WashedUp #MoYourRole
 
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Sinobas said:
I think most of the posters here are frustrated with Mo and Wright, now Wright has been benched and, and Jaynes pointed out stats which are not surprising.

Mo really is not part of this team's future. CJ will be backup SG, and we need a steadier backup PG, not a flashy turnover machine.
Click to expand...

Well, if they try for and win Kendall Marhall. He will be a serviceable backup for Damian. Take Mo, Leonard and whatever and move them for Asik. Or maybe another wing to come off the bench if you are content with the frontcourt.
 
Suspended, whatev'z.

You know what I mean. And don't get all Chris Crocker in me, SPD.

:lol:
 
Nothing like Dwight criticism to get the board to rally around Mo. LOL. As frustrating as he can sometimes be I never said he's not an upgrade and the best we've got. There's still plenty of season left to fine tune the execution.
 
BBert said:
Nothing like Dwight criticism to get the board to rally around Mo. LOL. As frustrating as he can sometimes be I never said he's not an upgrade and the best we've got. There's still plenty of season left to fine tune the execution.
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I used to like, support and follow Dwight, then he got fickle and blocked me on Twitter.

No more.
 
Watching Dwight on Wednesdays edition of Talking Ball. He really needs to hang it up. The older he gets, the more contankerous he gets. "I'm not a homer, I'm sorry" SMH.

I agreed with Chris Haynes in the that segment. I still think and believe Mo Williams deserves some credit for the start this team got off to and think he and his energy, shooting and scoring was responsible for a couple of their victories early on. More specifically the first four game road trip the team made back east.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2178/mo-williams
 
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OneLifeToLive said:
Watching Dwight on Wednesdays edition of Talking Ball. He really needs to hang it up. The older he gets, the more contankerous he gets. "I'm not a homer, I'm sorry" SMH.
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That quote was hilarious. He was practically foaming at the mouth when he said it. How awkward for Barrett to be in the middle of them.

OneLifeToLive said:
I agreed with Chris Haynes in the that segment. I still think and believe Mo Williams deserves some credit for the start this team got off to and think he and his energy, shooting and scoring was responsible for a couple of their victories early on. More specifically the first four game road trip the team made back east.
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Mo is a road warrior. I though he was key in that road stretch as well, when the team was still getting their feet wet. And I thought Haynes was merely saying that Mo deserves some credit. Jaynes was flat out saying Mo deserves none. But Jaynes isn't the Homer? lol
 
Dwight Jaynes said:
The case was made for him on the show Wednesday that his best attribute is "getting his own shot" -- which is probably true. But that attribute is also what detracts from his talents as a point guard. Williams gets his own shot a lot better than he gets shots for anyone else.
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And which stat or advanced stat shows that?

As BNM pointed out: APG 4.9 (NBA leading off the bench) AST/TO ratio 2.33

It takes effort to be THAT incredulous.

Dwight Jaynes said:
On 82games.com, which hasn't been updated since Jan. 5, you will notice that Williams' net production on the court is minus-5.5 -- even though, much more than any other Portland reserve, he quite often is playing with a lot of the team's starters.
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This is what taking extreme liberty with advanced stats leads to. The bolded statement is pure conjecture we must accept to deem his argument valid. In fact, Portland has played 98 line-ups this season. To go through all that data is a lot of work, and Jaynes is counting on us to not bother to look, assuming he’s even aware it’s available.
Dwight Jaynes said:
The stats at NBA.com's media site are more detailed than what is available to the public so I'm not able to provide a link here.
Click to expand...
Let’s check out NBA.com and see the stripped down version from his “media site” at least.

Unfortunately for Jaynes, basketball is a team sport, and his argument lacks so many contexts that only a Homer would make the case he is with a straight face.


Let’s look at a sample of these line-ups to see if there’s any hint of truth to this, “he quite often is playing with a lot of the team's starters.”

● Stotts has played 10 line-ups more than 7 games that have also have played at least 20 total minutes together on the season.

● In Mo’s case, that accounts for 504 minutes of 863 minutes played, and 8 of those 10 line-ups.

I know that seems like a ton of minutes unaccounted for, but we’re looking at line-ups and patterns. In a season with nearly half of the team being new, we are all aware that Stotts is trying to balance winning and developing, as well as trying to find the best line-ups in a given situation. I don’t need to account for every minute and every line-up to prove or disprove Jaynes assertion. And unfortunately, that’s where aggregate advanced stats fail to convey context.

Line-ups 1 and 2:
The starting line-up (LA, Wes, Dame, Batum, RoLo) has played every game (36) and a total of 721 minutes. Their net rating (the difference between their offensive and defensive rating) is 10.3.

Replace Lillard with Mo (29 games played together) and that line up has played 103 minutes together with a net rating of 16. You read that right. This line-ups net rating is 5.7 better than the starting line-up. In these two most used line-ups, the TS% and eFG% are almost the same, and the assist to turnover ratio drops from 1.94 to 1.74 when Mo is inserted for Lillard. Mo turns the ball over more than Lillard – shocking, I know. And yet, the net rating is better with Mo in this line-up.

If we accept Jaynes’ premise that Mo is bad, and despite playing with mostly starter, we have to also accept that 10.3 is greater than 16. Uh oh CSN NW, we have a problem.

Line-up 3:
The next most used line up played 80 minutes together with a net rating of NEGATIVE 12 (Freeland, Dame, Robinson, Wright, and Mo). [insert sarcasm] Look at all those starters. [end sarcasm]

TS% and eFG% drops 3% each, and ast/to ratio drops to 1.32. In other words, replace Batum, Wes, and LA ($33 mil in combined salary) who are averaging 53.6 PPG, and arguably the best 3 defenders on the Blazers, for Freeland, Robinson, and Wright ($9 mil combined) none of whom are averaging 12.8 PPG combined, and I’m supposed to accept that Mo Williams ($2.65 room exception signed in August) is bad and the reason for the -12 net rating?
Only 3 other line-ups that have negative net rating in that top 10 list, all with Mo. One of them is a negative 5.1 and has Batum playing the 4, with LA, Wes, Dame and Mo having played 46 minutes in that line up. I don’t like that line up for obvious reasons, and in 23 games, amounts to 2 minutes per game.

The other 2:
LA, Batum, Freeland, Wright, Mo (23 games, 67 min) -12.3 net rating.
Again, 2 starters isn’t a majority, and we’re seeing something in common with more than Mo: Joel and Dorell. Joel isn’t shooting from 3, and Dorell has struggled mightily to find his groove. What I’m noticing in the success or failure in each of these line-ups it’s all about match-ups: size, ability to score, defend, etc.

Jaynes and other advanced stat homers (Pelton and his rubes writing for Homer’s Edge) expect their spread sheet to tell them what to think. Do I need to remind y’all how grossly inaccurate Pelton’s SHOENES system to predict wins was last season was, or that the same system has Portland missing the play-offs this season?

Dame, Lopez, Robinson, Wright, Mo (14 games, 56 min) -31.7 net rating.

Only 93.2 OffRtg and 124.9 DefRtg. Again, we have all seen Mo off his game at times, Robinson more so, and Dorell very much so, with a lack of scoring and defending. Dorell has been benched, and so was Robinson for a long stretch in case anyone missed that. But, unlike the “off with their head” crowd, I still have a good feeling that Wright will come around, and that guys like Robinson and will get better the more they play together, and carve out their niche on this team with Stotts help.

The rest of the line-ups in the top 10 that Mo is in (208 min) all have a positive net rating.

The moral of the story is, this took a bit of time to compile and it’s just a significant sample. But a washed-up curmudgeon like Jaynes, who doesn’t seem to understand how to interpret advanced stats in context (sounds like work), opting to regurgitate what other stat geeks tell him who do not follow the Blazers, is hoping no one actually looks into what he’s blathering about.

No one, and I mean NO ONE, is saying that starters are not THE main reason for Portland’s success. But what I am saying, and Haynes was saying, is the Mo is a big part of Portland success. Jaynes is flat out WRONG about the Blazers being successful despite Mo, and would be best served to print out the advanced stats he’s looking at and use it for toilet paper.

Dwight Jayens said:
You may choose to not put much stock in such things, trusting your eyes to tell you the story of players' worth. That's fine. But to ignore meaningful advanced stats when evaluating players for potential trades and roster decisions would be risky, at best.
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I do put stock in advanced stats, I just put ZERO stock in Jaynes ability to interpret them. A tool is only as useful as the person using it, and Jaynes is absolutely worthless.

Dwight Jayens said:
Yes, the Trail Blazers have won 75 percent of their games to date. But the bench hasn't had a lot to do with that -- and Williams is a part of that group.
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Singling out Mo in a rant that is based on crap analysis is bush league, and Jaynes is a part of that group.

I’m include what I was looking at to make this post, and feel free to extrapolate whatever you’d like for yourself. The yellow highlighted 5 man units are with Mo in the line-up. Feel free to let me know if you come to a different conclusion or if you found any additions info you wanted to add about Mo.

nsxf.jpg
 
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