Game Thread GAME# 1: JAZZ @ BLAZERS - OCTOBER 25, 2016 - TUESDAY, 7:00 (PDT), KGW

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Which place in the West will the Blazers rank at the end of the season?

  • Total voters
    82
  • Poll closed .
Saint Cy of JFC said:
That makes sense though. You can't blame experts for underrating the Blazers. Your team's quick come-up (or rebound I guess) was quite remarkable. I had high hopes for McCollum when he was drafted as a NBA fan, but he was buried for 2 years. I thought he would have a good 3rd year with minutes, but no one really expected him to blowup like he did. That along with the ridiculous uptick in Aminu's 3pt ability just made for a perfect storm. Not to mention the near perfect bill of health among your top players (knock on wood, don't want anyone getting hurt).

Blazers took the NBA by surprise last year but it won't happen this year. I know it upsets fans to hear their team will be worse than the previous, but I don't see much internal improvement from your team, sorry. More than anything I see opportunity for regression unless Lillard really has a ridiculous season. The team I like to compare teh Blazers to are the Suns of a few years back when they surpassed expectations to have a great year only to come back the next year much worse. The Blazers, unlike the Suns, have a much stronger foundation and won't blow up internally though, so they won't fall off that much (if at all). I just don't see the improvement many here think and in a conference where others are rapidly improving that will leave the Blazers fighting for their playoff lives with the Wolves/Rockets/Thunder.
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While I don't agree with much of what you posted that was a solid take.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
That makes sense though. You can't blame experts for underrating the Blazers. Your team's quick come-up (or rebound I guess) was quite remarkable. I had high hopes for McCollum when he was drafted as a NBA fan, but he was buried for 2 years. I thought he would have a good 3rd year with minutes, but no one really expected him to blowup like he did. That along with the ridiculous uptick in Aminu's 3pt ability just made for a perfect storm. Not to mention the near perfect bill of health among your top players (knock on wood, don't want anyone getting hurt).

Blazers took the NBA by surprise last year but it won't happen this year. I know it upsets fans to hear their team will be worse than the previous, but I don't see much internal improvement from your team, sorry. More than anything I see opportunity for regression unless Lillard really has a ridiculous season. The team I like to compare teh Blazers to are the Suns of a few years back when they surpassed expectations to have a great year only to come back the next year much worse. The Blazers, unlike the Suns, have a much stronger foundation and won't blow up internally though, so they won't fall off that much (if at all). I just don't see the improvement many here think and in a conference where others are rapidly improving that will leave the Blazers fighting for their playoff lives with the Wolves/Rockets/Thunder.
Click to expand...

I think the NBA is a league where there's a tendency to get overly infatuated with names. The Jazz brought in a couple of "name" guys in Diaw and Johnson and there's this assumption that they, along with hopefully better health, will lift the Jazz into the upper ranks of the West. Never mind that they're both long in the tooth, the name recognition is there. The Blazers retained their young core and brought in Evan Turner who, while known around the league as a mid-level talent, is hardly the "name" that Diaw or Johnson is. The Blazers, however, signed him with a purpose because of his playmaking abilities. Last year, whenever Lillard or CJ went the the bench, the Blazers became one-dimensional because there was only one playmaker on the court at that time. Turner gives them the flexibility to run multiple lineups and always maintain two good playmakers on the court at all times. It remains to be seen which roster adjustments will have the bigger impact, but I'll take youth and additional playmaking over aging stars.
 
I think we're overdue for a big scoring game....like to see 6-7 guys score in double figures tonight
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
That makes sense though. You can't blame experts for underrating the Blazers. Your team's quick come-up (or rebound I guess) was quite remarkable. I had high hopes for McCollum when he was drafted as a NBA fan, but he was buried for 2 years. I thought he would have a good 3rd year with minutes, but no one really expected him to blowup like he did. That along with the ridiculous uptick in Aminu's 3pt ability just made for a perfect storm. Not to mention the near perfect bill of health among your top players (knock on wood, don't want anyone getting hurt).

Blazers took the NBA by surprise last year but it won't happen this year. I know it upsets fans to hear their team will be worse than the previous, but I don't see much internal improvement from your team, sorry. More than anything I see opportunity for regression unless Lillard really has a ridiculous season. The team I like to compare teh Blazers to are the Suns of a few years back when they surpassed expectations to have a great year only to come back the next year much worse. The Blazers, unlike the Suns, have a much stronger foundation and won't blow up internally though, so they won't fall off that much (if at all). I just don't see the improvement many here think and in a conference where others are rapidly improving that will leave the Blazers fighting for their playoff lives with the Wolves/Rockets/Thunder.
Click to expand...

It's a solid take but one from someone who is not intimately familiar with this team or its players.

POR "surprised" the experts for one reason last year - we have a leader in Damian Lillrd who is driven to be the best he can be and to inspire and lift up those around him to be their best as well. Who is UTA's leader?

UTA had to bring in veterans like George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw because, as talented as their young guys are, they had stagnated and not shown any significant improvement - missing the playoffs four years in a row and being stuck at around 40 wins. Unfortunately, for all their experience, none of those guys are leaders. They are all followers.

Not sure why you think our young guys will regress, but yours won't. That seems to be a common theme around the league, that everybody else's young guys will improve and take them to the next level, but our young guys, who played at a 53-win pace over the last 2/3 of the season and advanced to the second round of the playoffs, while being the youngest team to make the post season, have somehow maxed out and will all begin to decline.

Other than a few games to get back into the flow, do you think Gordon Hayward has reached his peak and it's all down hill for him from here on out? He's 18 days younger than our oldest starter. Here's the ages of our starters vs. your starters:

Damian Lillard = 26-102d
George Hill = 30-174d

C.J. McCollum = 25-036d
Rodney Hood = 24-005d

Maurice Harkless = 23-167d
Gordon Hayward = 26-216d

Al-Farouq Aminu = 26-034d
Derrick Favors = 25-102d

Mason Pumlee = 26-234d
Rudy Gobert = 24-121d

So, other than Hill, all starters for both teams are between 23 and 26. Most NBA players peak between 27 and 29. There is no precedence or logical reason to assume our young players are going to regress. Quite the opposite, they should all continue to improve for the next 3 or 4 years. So should yours, with the exception of George Hill.

I know you also have a couple promising young guys on your bench in Trey Lyles and Dante Exum. But today, your two best bench players are Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw (35-118d) and Boris Diaw (34-192d). You're basically depending on a couple of 35-year olds to anchor your bench. Our two oldest rotation players are Evan Turner (27-364d) and Ed Davis (27-142d). The rest of our rotation players are all between 21 and 24, and still improving.

And that improvement is also something that may go unnoticed by an outsider who doesn't follow the team closely. Mason Plumlee, our oldest starter, is most effective running the floor and playing the high post in the half court, due to his unique passing ability for a big man. The problem is, until last year, any shot that wasn't a dunk was an adventure, and that included FTs. He worked on improving his FT shooting during the season and upped it from .495 to an almost respectable .642. Now, he has a midrange jump shot. That was the biggest hole in his game, and what he worked on improving during the offseason. He's been showing it off in the preseason. No one will mistake his form for Ray Allen, but it's going in and that's going to draw the opposing center away from the basket, which opens up the passing lanes for Plumlee to hit cutters like Aminu and Harkless diving the basket, like he did when he averaged 5.7 apg in the LAC series. This is a contract year for Plumlee, his first chance at big bucks coming off his rookie contract. I don't expect any regression here. I expect continued improvement.

The player that has shown the most improvement is Noah Vonleh. Vonleh is just 21 (right between Exum and Lyles in age) and came into the league at 19. Other than some very solid defense, he hadn't shown much improvement in his first two seasons, one in CHO and one in POR. Well, look for Vonleh to break out, if not this year, than next. Yeah, it's just preseason, but Vonleh has looked like an absolute stud both on the glass and in the post. He's an incredibly hard worker and a physically unique specimen with huge hands, long arms and a low center of gravity. No regression here., He can only continue to improve.

And, don't sleep on Damian Lillard. Outside of Michael Jordan and Larry Bird, I have never seen a basketball player so determined to be the best he can be. I don't expect a huge leap in his raw numbers this year. The team is just too deep and Lillard too unselfish to pull a Harden or a Westbrook. But, I do expect much more efficient production from Lillard. The addition of Evan Turner will allow Lillard to play off the ball more, which will result in more, higher percentage catch and shoot opportunities.

Anyone who thinks this young team has peaked, or will somehow become complacent after a small taste of post season success, is mistaken. It will just drive them to want more. A leader like Lillard will always push himself to be the best, but his leadership also lifts up those around him to also strive to be their best. If you expect regression, you will be disappointed. If you're depending on it to pass us in the standings, you will be wrong, on both counts.

BNM
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Y'all are really mad every relevant basketball mind picked us over Portland? Must hurt over succeeding and knowing you will never reach that peak of mediocrity again. Y'all basically the Thrift Store version of Golden State, but the original owner's cat pissed all over y'all.
Click to expand...

1) OK, I'll bite. Who are these relevant basketball minds you're talking about?
2) I only checked box scores, but Gobert played pretty lackluster this summer.
 
riverman said:
I'm thrilled the season starts tonight! I don't hate the Jazz and wouldn't underestimate them...let's sweep the division!
Click to expand...

I don't hate them either, but they are a division rival (and highly overrated), so I want to beat them tonight and every time we play them. Bummer that Hayward and Favors are out. I'd much rather beat them at full strength. Hayward is their best offensive player and Favors is their best two-way player.

Trey Lyles is going to be good, but right now, he's not nearly the stud Favors is on defense, or on the offensive glass. Plus, by moving Lyles and Joe Jonson into the starting line up, it doesn't leave them with much in the way of scoring coming off the bench. I know some experts picked UTA as having the best bench in the league, but I actually think bench play should go in our favor tonight and could be the difference in the game.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
It's a solid take but one from someone who is not intimately familiar with this team or its players.

POR "surprised" the experts for one reason last year - we have a leader in Damian Lillrd who is driven to be the best he can be and to inspire and lift up those around him to be their best as well. Who is UTA's leader?

UTA had to bring in veterans like George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw because, as talented as their young guys are, they had stagnated and not shown any significant improvement - missing the playoffs four years in a row and being stuck at around 40 wins. Unfortunately, for all their experience, none of those guys are leaders. They are all followers.

Not sure why you think our young guys will regress, but yours won't. That seems to be a common theme around the league, that everybody else's young guys will improve and take them to the next level, but our young guys, who played at a 53-win pace over the last 2/3 of the season and advanced to the second round of the playoffs, while being the youngest team to make the post season, have somehow maxed out and will all begin to decline.

Other than a few games to get back into the flow, do you think Gordon Hayward has reached his peak and it's all down hill for him from here on out? He's 18 days younger than our oldest starter. Here's the ages of our starters vs. your starters:

Damian Lillard = 26-102d
George Hill = 30-174d

C.J. McCollum = 25-036d
Rodney Hood = 24-005d

Maurice Harkless = 23-167d
Gordon Hayward = 26-216d

Al-Farouq Aminu = 26-034d
Derrick Favors = 25-102d

Mason Pumlee = 26-234d
Rudy Gobert = 24-121d

So, other than Hill, all starters for both teams are between 23 and 26. Most NBA players peak between 27 and 29. There is no precedence or logical reason to assume our young players are going to regress. Quite the opposite, they should all continue to improve for the next 3 or 4 years. So should yours, with the exception of George Hill.

I know you also have a couple promising young guys on your bench in Trey Lyles and Dante Exum. But today, your two best bench players are Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw (35-118d) and Boris Diaw (34-192d). You're basically depending on a couple of 35-year olds to anchor your bench. Our two oldest rotation players are Evan Turner (27-364d) and Ed Davis (27-142d). The rest of our rotation players are all between 21 and 24, and still improving.

And that improvement is also something that may go unnoticed by an outsider who doesn't follow the team closely. Mason Plumlee, our oldest starter, is most effective running the floor and playing the high post in the half court, due to his unique passing ability for a big man. The problem is, until last year, any shot that wasn't a dunk was an adventure, and that included FTs. He worked on improving his FT shooting during the season and upped it from .495 to an almost respectable .642. Now, he has a midrange jump shot. That was the biggest hole in his game, and what he worked on improving during the offseason. He's been showing it off in the preseason. No one will mistake his form for Ray Allen, but it's going in and that's going to draw the opposing center away from the basket, which opens up the passing lanes for Plumlee to hit cutters like Aminu and Harkless diving the basket, like he did when he averaged 5.7 apg in the LAC series. This is a contract year for Plumlee, his first chance at big bucks coming off his rookie contract. I don't expect any regression here. I expect continued improvement.

The player that has shown the most improvement is Noah Vonleh. Vonleh is just 21 (right between Exum and Lyles in age) and came into the league at 19. Other than some very solid defense, he hadn't shown much improvement in his first two seasons, one in CHO and one in POR. Well, look for Vonleh to break out, if not this year, than next. Yeah, it's just preseason, but Vonleh has looked like an absolute stud both on the glass and in the post. He's an incredibly hard worker and a physically unique specimen with huge hands, long arms and a low center of gravity. No regression here., He can only continue to improve.

And, don't sleep on Damian Lillard. Outside of Michael Jordan and Larry Bird, I have never seen a basketball player so determined to be the best he can be. I don't expect a huge leap in his raw numbers this year. The team is just too deep and Lillard too unselfish to pull a Harden or a Westbrook. But, I do expect much more efficient production from Lillard. The addition of Evan Turner will allow Lillard to play off the ball more, which will result in more, higher percentage catch and shoot opportunities.

Anyone who thinks this young team has peaked, or will somehow become complacent after a small taste of post season success, is mistaken. It will just drive them to want more. A leader like Lillard will always push himself to be the best, but his leadership also lifts up those around him to also strive to be their best. If you expect regression, you will be disappointed. If you're depending on it to pass us in the standings, you will be wrong, on both counts.

BNM
Click to expand...

Basically I think Blazers got pretty lucky with their health situation and they got a statistical anomaly from Aminu (though to his credit his good shooting run extended into the playoffs and in this year's preseason).

And I question how this helps your offense:
As an opponent, I will smile whenever Lillard or CJ are on the court and this dude has the ball in his hands.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Basically I think Blazers got pretty lucky with their health situation and they got a statistical anomaly from Aminu (though to his credit his good shooting run extended into the playoffs and in this year's preseason).

And I question how this helps your offense:
As an opponent, I will smile whenever Lillard or CJ are on the court and this dude has the ball in his hands.
Click to expand...

Aminu, like all of our other starters, has not yet reached his peak. At some point, an 82 game season + 11 playoff games + 7 game preseason is no longer a fluke and becomes a trend. His improved 3 point shooting actually started the season before in the playoffs for DAL. That's 105 games of better than league average 3-point shooting. Chief will never be Steph Curry, but when your 5th best 3-point shooter is better than league average that's a good thing to have.

I don't expect to see a ton of Turner + Dame + C.J. We don't need all three of them together. Turner was brought in to be a secondary ball handler when one of Dame of C.J. is out of the game. That was a big problem for us last year.

We had first Tim Frazier and then Brian Roberts as our backup PGs last season. Both are capable ball handlers, but both are also generously listed as 6'1" in shoes. Frazier is closer to 5'11". You simply can't play a smaller PG with Lillard or C.J. for meaningful minutes - and Stotts didn't. Those two hardly played at all. Our backcourt is a bit undersized to begin with and bringing in an even smaller guard to let Dame or C.J. play off the ball is a disaster on the defensive end.

So, whenever one of our starting guards went out of the game, we ended up with a lone ball handler, who was also our best scorer. That made it really easy for opposing defenses to swarm the lone ball handler and completely shut down our offense at the point of attack. Unfortunately, none of Gerald Henderson, Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu are capable ball handlers. So, last year, whenever Dame or C.J. rested, we had trouble just getting the ball across half court, let alone running the offense once we got there.

In prior years, we had Nic Batum, as a point forward, to help handle the ball and initiate the offense, but he was sent to CHO in the Vonleh/Henderson trade. It was very obvious last season that we missed a ball handler of size to pair with our smaller guards.

Enter Evan Turner. At 6'7", he gives us an additional ball handler of size to pair with Dame or C.J. when the other leaves the game. It doesn't make sense to start all three. That's redundant. Our two best guards/ball handlers will start, but when one of them leaves the game, Turner will come in to help bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense. This is the same role Turner played, and played will, in BOS. His role isn't to take shots away from Dame and C.J., it's to create more higher percentage catch and shoot opportunities for them. A shot of Tuner missing a jumper in preseason doesn't change that.

BNM
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Basically I think Blazers got pretty lucky with their health situation and they got a statistical anomaly from Aminu (though to his credit his good shooting run extended into the playoffs and in this year's preseason).

And I question how this helps your offense:
As an opponent, I will smile whenever Lillard or CJ are on the court and this dude has the ball in his hands.
Click to expand...
I raise you
 
Another thing on Evan Turner. Prior to joining the Celtics I thought he was one of the worst perimeter defenders in the league. I wonder if he regresses joining an average defensive team.
 
Alright! It looks like we got some SLC Punks in the room. Keep up that banter boys.... you could make up for the loss of the Sonics fan boys.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Another thing on Evan Turner. Prior to joining the Celtics I thought he was one of the worst perimeter defenders in the league. I wonder if he regresses joining an average defensive team.
Click to expand...

You must have him confused with Joe Johnson.

In his entire 6 year NBA career, Evan Turner has only had a negative DBPM (Defensive Box Plus/Minus) one time, Even when he played on those shitty PHI teams, he was an above average defender for his position.

Joe Johnson has had a negative DBPM for 14 consecutive seasons. I wonder what the all time record is. You have to go all the way back too his rookie year, 15 years ago in BOS, ironically, to find the last time Joe Johnson wasn't a worse than average defender.

BNM
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Another thing on Evan Turner. Prior to joining the Celtics I thought he was one of the worst perimeter defenders in the league. I wonder if he regresses joining an average defensive team.
Click to expand...
well defense is a team skill....and I'm sure you'd love to see our new guy fail.....but honestly...what you thought about him years ago is probably not the most objective point to make but...there doesn't seem to be anyone cheering in the Jazz forum..? That is two doors down the hallway on the right...
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Y'all are really mad every relevant basketball mind picked us over Portland? Must hurt over succeeding and knowing you will never reach that peak of mediocrity again. Y'all basically the Thrift Store version of Golden State, but the original owner's cat pissed all over y'all.
Click to expand...

Oh HELL NO. I got this, guys. Is ESPN relevant? They picked us over the Jazz:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17862484/2016-17-nba-preview

Last we saw the Jazz, they let old man Kobe (one of the worst players in the league) shit all over them to the tune of 60 points.

Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw will get you nowhere.

I bet you $200 the Blazers have a better record than the Jazz at the end of this season. I warn you. I always win my bets and then the losers (HCP, Draco) cry in a corner and refuses to pay.
 
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Im sorry in advance for this, but......


I CANT FUCKING WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT!!! GOD DAMN!!!!


GO BLAZERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Like energy is seaping down my neck from out of my ear im so excited!!!!!
 
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