Game Thread GAME# 17: BLAZERS @ CAVALIERS - NOVEMBER 23, 2019 - SATURDAY, 5:00 PM, NBCSNW

[Scalma]

Portland shot better than Cleveland and still lost the game. Look no further than the rebounding discrepancy. We are getting mauled on the boards and where the FUCK is Joakim Noah?? And if you’re going to be irresponsible and not bring in a god damn center at least give Moses a chance. I don’t care that he’s not ready he can still grab boards.

 

[TBpup]

Portland shot better than Cleveland and still lost the game. Look no further than the rebounding discrepancy. We are getting mauled on the boards and where the FUCK is Joakim Noah?? And if you’re going to be irresponsible and not bring in a god damn center at least give Moses a chance. I don’t care that he’s not ready he can still grab boards.

Noah or Moses...seems like a solution of biblical proportions.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Portland shot better than Cleveland and still lost the game. Look no further than the rebounding discrepancy. We are getting mauled on the boards and where the FUCK is Joakim Noah?? And if you’re going to be irresponsible and not bring in a god damn center at least give Moses a chance. I don’t care that he’s not ready he can still grab boards.

Almost have to think Olshey is in on the tank. If he comes up with a big trade in the next couple days that required an open roster spot; then I'll apologize.

 

[Wade Garrett]

I respect you for saying you might be wrong; but it's unfortunate that it took a TV analyst to persuade you instead of guys on here. I don't believe TV guys and even most GM's and coaches are smarter than some fans. (No matter what HCP might think!)

"Instead of the guys on here...."
Would you like cream and sugar with your morning cup of ego?..
I'll make up my own mind, thank you just the same.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

"Instead of the guys on here...."
Would you like cream and sugar with your morning cup of ego?..
I'll make up my own mind, thank you just the same.

I would!

 

[Strenuus]

"Instead of the guys on here...."
Would you like cream and sugar with your morning cup of ego?..
I'll make up my own mind, thank you just the same.

My ego already poured me a cup!

 

[SIeepwalker]

Portland shot better than Cleveland and still lost the game. Look no further than the rebounding discrepancy. We are getting mauled on the boards and where the FUCK is Joakim Noah?? And if you’re going to be irresponsible and not bring in a god damn center at least give Moses a chance. I don’t care that he’s not ready he can still grab boards.

Yeah, I have no idea why we're getting outrebounded so bad.... wait, who did Stotts start at center again ?

 

[wizenheimer]

But yes, Zach struggles on the boards when he's the only big / rim protector and alongside no other above average defensive rebounder.

If we had an adequate replacement, it wouldn't be nearly the issue it is.

now, here's where we agree. Olshey made some major miscalculations when he tore apart the previous roster and built this one. Tolliver and Hezonja? Those were just bad choices, and it left nothing behind Zack. It was the thinnest of ice and it shattered 100 minutes into the season. Then Olshey doubled-down on the stupidity by signing a 39 year old C coming of major foot surgery.

last season, the PF rotation was Aminu/Zach/Harkless. Staring the season with Zach/Tolliver/Hezonja was a major downgrade...then Zach got hurt, and now we have Melo/Tolliver/Hezonja....only not quite because Tolliver is playing C. That's pretty nauseating.

 

[kjironman1]

Yeah, I have no idea why we're getting outrebounded so bad.... wait, who did Stotts start at center again ?

Course it really didn't make difference who was playing. They were getting crushed.

 

[HailBlazers]

sure...but it's crazy for you to track down one statistic and use that to justify saying Zach is essential to defensive rebounding rate when CJ out-rebounds him. We're both dealing with a ridiculously small sample size, but you were the one that tried to make something out of a 3 game sample

we can look at last season for guidance:

* when Zach was on the floor, Portland had a 27.1% offensive reb rate; off the floor, Portland had a 31.1% rate; -4.0

* when Zach was on the floor, Portland had a 73.9% defensive reb rate; off the floor, Blazers had a 75.6% rate; -1.7

* Zach on the floor, a total reb rate of 50.5%; off the floor, 53.4% rate; -2.9

* last season, Zach's offensive reb rate was 8.8% vs this season at 4.7%

* last season, Zach's defensive reb rate was 16.5% vs this season 9.3%

putting all those numbers together logically makes your assertion shaky beyond belief. The potential of 'blocking out' isn't worth that much

http://www.82games.com/1819/18POR15.HTM

You know what's essential to defensive rebounding? Getting stops. Without Zach Teams are scoring at will inside against us.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

"Instead of the guys on here...."
Would you like cream and sugar with your morning cup of ego?..
I'll make up my own mind, thank you just the same.

I think a strong ego is a good thing to have.

 

[kjironman1]

I think a strong ego is a good thing to have.

Like a strong cup of coffee.

 

[wizenheimer]

You know what's essential to defensive rebounding? Getting stops. Without Zach Teams are scoring at will inside against us.

that does not affect rebounding rates, which is why they are the best measure of team and individual rebounding impact.

and your assumption may be exaggerated. Look at the numbers comparing last year to this year:

% of Opponent FGA 0-3': 2018-19 -> .299.....2019-20 -> .286
FG% by Distance 0-3': 2018-19 -> .633.....2019-20 -> .636

% of Opponent FGA 3-10': 2018-19 -> .150.....2019-20 -> .177
FG% by Distance 3-10': 2018-19 -> .411.....2019-20 -> .385

so then, those two shooting zones would be the ones most impacted by big man defense and rim protection. In shots at the rim, The Blazers are actually giving up fewer this season than last, and opponents have only increased their efficiency by .003...insignificant. Blazers are giving up more shots in the 3-10' zone this season, but are holding teams to a much lower FG%

Portland is losing a lot of games because of rebounding. Last season, the Blazers were 4th in the NBA in scoring 2nd chance points at 15.0/game. This season, they are 21st at 12.4/game. A differential of -2.6. Last season Portland was 17th in allowing opponent 2nd chance points at 13.7/game; This season, they are dead last at 16.8/game. A differential of -3.1. That means Portland is -5.7 points/game worse off the glass this year, and their MOV is only -3.7. Last season, Portland was +1.3 in 2nd chance points from both ends of the floor, This season, they are -4.4. Their -4.4 point deficit is more than their MOV

They are getting killed on the boards and Zach's big weakness as a big man is his rebounding. Now maybe, he'd discourage an opponent 2nd chance opportunity every once in a while, but that wouldn't have any significant impact on those numbers. Portland misses Zach, but they don't miss his anemic reboundiing

 

[Propagandist]

that does not affect rebounding rates, which is why they are the best measure of team and individual rebounding impact.

and your assumption may be exaggerated. Look at the numbers comparing last year to this year:

% of Opponent FGA 0-3': 2018-19 -> .299.....2019-20 -> .286
FG% by Distance 0-3': 2018-19 -> .633.....2019-20 -> .636

% of Opponent FGA 3-10': 2018-19 -> .150.....2019-20 -> .177
FG% by Distance 3-10': 2018-19 -> .411.....2019-20 -> .385

so then, those two shooting zones would be the ones most impacted by big man defense and rim protection. In shots at the rim, The Blazers are actually giving up fewer this season than last, and opponents have only increased their efficiency by .003...insignificant. Blazers are giving up more shots in the 3-10' zone this season, but are holding teams to a much lower FG%

Portland is losing a lot of games because of rebounding. Last season, the Blazers were 4th in the NBA in scoring 2nd chance points at 15.0/game. This season, they are 21st at 12.4/game. A differential of -2.6. Last season Portland was 17th in allowing opponent 2nd chance points at 13.7/game; This season, they are dead last at 16.8/game. A differential of -3.1. That means Portland is -5.7 points/game worse off the glass this year, and their MOV is only -3.7. Last season, Portland was +1.3 in 2nd chance points from both ends of the floor, This season, they are -4.4. Their -4.4 point deficit is more than their MOV

They are getting killed on the boards and Zach's big weakness as a big man is his rebounding. Now maybe, he'd discourage an opponent 2nd chance opportunity every once in a while, but that wouldn't have any significant impact on those numbers. Portland misses Zach, but they don't miss his anemic reboundiing

Fucking a.

 

[hoopsjock]

"Instead of the guys on here...."
I'll make up my own mind, thank you just the same.

For the record, I completely agree with you that everyone should make up their own mind and not let anyone whether it be posters or media determine your own opinion.

 

[blazerfan11]

Your right but how many shots at the rim he change though.

I think a strong ego is a good thing to have.

A strong defense is good to have too.

 

[bobf]

You know what aminu's BPM is this year? -2.0. You know what it is for his entire career? 0.0...
Harkless for his career is 0.3.
Kanter for his career is -1.3
ML for his career -1.4
Seth is -.1
I think it's really, really hard to put a case together that any of them are above average players. Average maybe. Decentish role players sure.

Tolliver for his career is -0.5
Melo is a 0.9
Mario is a -3.0 (yes he sucks)
Whiteside is a .4
Bazemore -1

In the end it's basically a lot of mediocrity no matter how it's spun. The thing is the bigs are all hurt. Dame's been hurt, Hoods been hurt, The only consistent starter all year has been CJ.

They did not give away a bunch of good role players, they gave away a bunch of average roleplayers and received about the same in return (sure maybe slightly worse). The thing is they haven't adjusted their system at all for what they brought in.

Aminu was not coming back it just wasn't really an option.

If you do the same analysis using about the last 3-5 years and you use both BPM & RPM will get different results. It's not realistic to use Melo's & Tolliver's career because they are both off the cliff.

Here is last 5 years weighted more towards recent years. Simple average of players, last year is +0.44 this year is -1.39. That will cost about 8 games over an 82 game season based on minutes played and 2.7 wins per +/- 1 point. And it's worse than that because even what I did does not fully account for how bad Tolliver and Melo are at the moment because it uses data from 3 to 5 years ago which is not realistic.

Average players matter. It's not easy to get depth where 8th, 9th, 10th players are average or even close to average.