Game Thread GAME# 47: PELICANS @ BLAZERS - JANUARY 18, 2019 - FRIDAY, 7:30 PM, NBCSNW

[wizenheimer]

Layman is a better fit with the starters than Moe imo. I know Moe is the better defender, but Layman isn’t a liability on that end either. Offensively he brings so much more. His off ball game in itself is a weapon. Harkless has nothing beyond a set shot and the occasional post up against smaller players. There’s no reason for defenses to respect him. I’m not hating on Moe, we need him, but Layman plays so well with the starters, especially as you mentioned, Nurk.

I have a hard time agreeing with this for a couple of reasons

one is that the sample size for Layman is so small compared to Harkless. And, in the previous 3 seasons, when the Blazers have gone on their hot streaks there have seemed to be 2 constants: one was that Dame was in superstar mode; the other was that Harkless was healthy and playing well

another reservation I have is I think the impact of Harkless' defense is a bit underrated. Now, that's not because he's an elite defender but because Portland perimeter defense with Dame/CJ is so porous. Harkless is an important backstop

my thoughts are that, as long as Olshey is GM, the Dame/CJ pairing will be there too. I hate it but it's so. My assumption right now is that Aminu won't be back next season; he might even be traded this season although I doubt it. So then, the way the NBA is going, a forward rotation of Harkless, Zach, & Layman might be fairly effective. I think both Harkless and Layman can matchup with a lot of the stretch-4's that make up other team's small-ball lineups, especially considering that so few teams resort to post offense any more. Portland would miss Aminu's defense, but unless the team is sold before summer, I can't see the Blazers taking on the tax to re-sign both Aminu and Layman

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

So i thought long and hard and i came up with THREE new nicknames for Jake:

1) Jake CakeMan
2)Jake The Cake
3)Jake KLayMan

I'm glad we gave him time to bake.

I kinda like Jake Slayman

 

[tlongII]

Jake from StateFarm.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Jake from StateFarm.

This oh man how did I forget that! That's the one.

 

[tlongII]

Uh, khakis?

 

[Scalma]

I have a hard time agreeing with this for a couple of reasons

one is that the sample size for Layman is so small compared to Harkless. And, in the previous 3 seasons, when the Blazers have gone on their hot streaks there have seemed to be 2 constants: one was that Dame was in superstar mode; the other was that Harkless was healthy and playing well

another reservation I have is I think the impact of Harkless' defense is a bit underrated. Now, that's not because he's an elite defender but because Portland perimeter defense with Dame/CJ is so porous. Harkless is an important backstop

my thoughts are that, as long as Olshey is GM, the Dame/CJ pairing will be there too. I hate it but it's so. My assumption right now is that Aminu won't be back next season; he might even be traded this season although I doubt it. So then, the way the NBA is going, a forward rotation of Harkless, Zach, & Layman might be fairly effective. I think both Harkless and Layman can matchup with a lot of the stretch-4's that make up other team's small-ball lineups, especially considering that so few teams resort to post offense any more. Portland would miss Aminu's defense, but unless the team is sold before summer, I can't see the Blazers taking on the tax to re-sign both Aminu and Layman

Yes, Moe has been a constant in regular season runs the last couple years, but the operative words should be regular season. Does it translate to the playoffs? Can we really have two players out there with Dame and CJ who other teams have no problem abandoning offensively? Do their defensive contributions make up for it? Seems like you realize this though with your last paragraph.

Personally I think Layman should start with one of Moe/Aminu on the second unit. Then again I’ve been for dumping one of them for at least two years now. I don’t like them paired up at all. I realize what they bring defensively, but it kills the offense, especially in the playoffs when teams suffocate Dame.

 

[wizenheimer]

Personally I think Layman should start with one of Moe/Aminu on the second unit. Then again I’ve been for dumping one of them for at least two years now. I don’t like them paired up at all. I realize what they bring defensively, but it kills the offense, especially in the playoffs when teams suffocate Dame.

Layman isn't going to help when teams suffocate Dame. What kills the Blazers in that circumstance is that nobody else can run the offense. The ball goes to CJ and in typical rope-a-dope fashion, CJ goes one-on-one and nobody else gets involved offensively in any consistent fashion. The Blazers don't need another outlet shooting option...they need somebody who can facilitate offense better than CJ or Turner can

look at what happened last season against the Pelicans:

* CJ had a PER of 19.6 and a TS% of .610 when his regular season numbers were 17.0 & .536
* Aminu had a PER of 21.3 and a TS% of .652 when his regular season numbers were 12.0 & .522
* Nurkic had a PER of 23.0 and a TS% of .536 when his regular season numbers were 19.2 & .528

and both Nurkic and Aminu rebounded better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

but it didn't make any difference because without Lillard being Lillard, Portland had no chance. Just plugging Layman into that equation wouldn't have changed the outcome, IMO

I guess another way to look at it is that even when lower tier talent has a great series, a team still needs whatever upper tier talent they have to perform well. CJ and Aminu and Nurkic played well on offense, but even as good as they were, they couldn't punish the Pelicans for their defense selling out to stop Dame. None of those 3 players were able to carry the team like Dame does

 

[Scalma]

Layman isn't going to help when teams suffocate Dame. What kills the Blazers in that circumstance is that nobody else can run the offense. The ball goes to CJ and in typical rope-a-dope fashion, CJ goes one-on-one and nobody else gets involved offensively in any consistent fashion. The Blazers don't need another outlet shooting option...they need somebody who can facilitate offense better than CJ or Turner can

look at what happened last season against the Pelicans:

* CJ had a PER of 19.6 and a TS% of .610 when his regular season numbers were 17.0 & .536
* Aminu had a PER of 21.3 and a TS% of .652 when his regular season numbers were 12.0 & .522
* Nurkic had a PER of 23.0 and a TS% of .536 when his regular season numbers were 19.2 & .528

and both Nurkic and Aminu rebounded better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

but it didn't make any difference because with Lillard being Lillard, Portland had no chance. Just plugging Layman into that equation wouldn't have changed the outcome, IMO

I guess another way to look at it is that even when lower tier talent has a great series, a team still needs whatever upper tier talent they have to perform well. CJ and Aminu and Nurkic played well on offense, but even as good as they were, they couldn't punish the Pelicans for their defense selling out to stop Dame. None of those 3 players were able to carry the team like Dame does

Since were speaking hypothetically, my theory is teams wouldn’t leave Jake open the way they leave Moe and Aminu. That’s one less defender to leave his man and attack Dame. You can retort with the sample size, but I’ve already noticed a difference in how teams defend Layman compared to how they “defend” Aminu and Moe. Teams aren’t giving Layman the same space, yet if you look at his three point percentages, they aren’t much different than Aminus. So for whatever reason, he’s getting more respect. The off ball movement isn’t a fluke either, don’t need 10,000 minutes to come to the conclusion that it’s a weapon.

As for CJ, he’s been pretty efficient the last couple of games as he’s taken more of a backseat. He hasn’t topped 13 attempts and we’ve seen less of the hopscotching. It’ll be interesting to see if that was just an outlier, or if that’s a concerted strategy.

And for the record I think Layman has another layer to his game he hasn’t shown yet; playmaking. I think he’s a much better passer than his numbers indicate. He just hasn’t been given the freedom, or responsibility, and that’s going back to college, where he was more of a role player as well. But there have been flashes when he’s had the ball in his hands where he’s shown enough creativity and intelligence that leads me to believe its something worth tapping into.

 

[James lamphear]

Since were speaking hypothetically, my theory is teams wouldn’t leave Jake open the way they leave Moe and Aminu. That’s one less defender to leave his man and attack Dame. You can retort with the sample size, but I’ve already noticed a difference in how teams defend Layman compared to how they “defend” Aminu and Moe. Teams aren’t giving Layman the same space, yet if you look at his three point percentages, they aren’t much different than Aminus. So for whatever reason, he’s getting more respect. The off ball movement isn’t a fluke either, don’t need 10,000 minutes to come to the conclusion that it’s a weapon.

As for CJ, he’s been pretty efficient the last couple of games as he’s taken more of a backseat. He hasn’t topped 13 attempts and we’ve seen less of the hopscotching. It’ll be interesting to see if that was just an outlier, or if that’s a concerted strategy.

And for the record I think Layman has another layer to his game he hasn’t shown yet; playmaking. I think he’s a much better passer than his numbers indicate. He just hasn’t been given the freedom, or responsibility, and that’s going back to college, where he was more of a role player as well. But there have been flashes when he’s had the ball in his hands where he’s shown enough creativity and intelligence that leads me to believe its something worth tapping into.

I think Dame not calling CJ number because he starting to realize that other players are also can produce too. That not bad thing it actually a good thing. That why you see assist going up in games.

 

[GoBlazersGo]

Jake's nickname, should be either "Teen Wolf" or "Layman's Terms."

 

[wizenheimer]

Since were speaking hypothetically, my theory is teams wouldn’t leave Jake open the way they leave Moe and Aminu.

maybe, but why would they?...both Aminu and Jake are shooting 36% on three's right now, which is just about what the entire team is shooting (and the league), and Aminu was shooting 37% when the playoffs started last year, while Harkless was shooting 42%. Yeah, Harkless was injured but I see no evidence at all that the Pelicans would have changed their defensive game plan because of a pair of starting forwards shooting 36% from the arc. I think that's especially true since neither Aminu or Layman has demonstrated any ability to hurt opponents off the dribble

I get that you're impressed with Layman, but like I said in another thread, I think Layman fever has outpaced Layman reality. It may be that he has some substantial base of untapped potential, but getting there from here isn't guaranteed at all. keep in mind that he's not some 21 year old player with no experience. He's only 6 weeks away from turning 25 and he had a 4 year NCAA career (and by the way, only shot 36% for his career from the college 3 point line) Don't get me wrong, I'm all for I him getting consistent playing time from a consistent place in the rotation...then we can have a better idea if the potential you're seeing is reality or mirage.

 

[TBpup]

@wizenheimer I agree that when 'on', Harkless has a very positive impact on this team. However, his 'on' time self admittedly runs in streaks and he struggles with staying positive for whatever reason.

Jake is an unknown due to small sample size but I'd much rather that small sample size be the way he has been playing versus the way Harkless has been playing in his small sample size this season.

What Jake does that is unique is his off the ball movement....shades of Jim Paxson. Teams will have to account for that or he will keep getting the high percentage looks that he is getting. Once they make more of an accounting of him, that will open up things for other players.

Who knows what difference that might make in the Playoffs but I'd rather have more positive things like that than less.

 

[Scalma]

maybe, but why would they?...both Aminu and Jake are shooting 36% on three's right now, which is just about what the entire team is shooting (and the league), and Aminu was shooting 37% when the playoffs started last year, while Harkless was shooting 42%. Yeah, Harkless was injured but I see no evidence at all that the Pelicans would have changed their defensive game plan because of a pair of starting forwards shooting 36% from the arc. I think that's especially true since neither Aminu or Layman has demonstrated any ability to hurt opponents off the dribble

I get that you're impressed with Layman, but like I said in another thread, I think Layman fever has outpaced Layman reality. It may be that he has some substantial base of untapped potential, but getting there from here isn't guaranteed at all. keep in mind that he's not some 21 year old player with no experience. He's only 6 weeks away from turning 25 and he had a 4 year NCAA career (and by the way, only shot 36% for his career from the college 3 point line) Don't get me wrong, I'm all for I him getting consistent playing time from a consistent place in the rotation...then we can have a better idea if the potential you're seeing is reality or mirage.

Well, I don’t agree that Layman hasn’t shown he can hurt opponents off the dribble. He has a dribble pull-up, something he’s had since he’s been in the league. Neither Aminu or Harkless have one, or I haven’t seen it.

He’s shown pretty efficient finishing ability at the basket when driving. He’s also flashed a good euro step.

No he doesn’t have the cool dribbles and crossovers that CJ has, but he also has size and an explosive first step that someone like CJ doesn’t, so maybe he doesn’t really need it to get by someone.

Of course this can all be countered by the “sample size” argument, and probably rightfully so, but every player could have that held against them at some point as well. And really, the sample size isn’t really that small anymore.

 

[wizenheimer]

Well, I don’t agree that Layman hasn’t shown he can hurt opponents off the dribble. He has a dribble pull-up, something he’s had since he’s been in the league. Neither Aminu or Harkless have one, or I haven’t seen it.

He’s shown pretty efficient finishing ability at the basket when driving. He’s also flashed a good euro step.

No he doesn’t have the cool dribbles and crossovers that CJ has, but he also has an explosive first step that someone like CJ doesn’t, so maybe he doesn’t really need it to get by someone.

Of course this can all be countered by the “sample size” argument, and probably rightfully so, but every player could have that held against them at some point as well. And really, the sample size isn’t really that small anymore.

ok...I get your drift

I'd point out that 79 of Jake's 96 FG's have been assisted, meaning he has just 17 unassisted FG's in 36 games and 180 attempts. Doesn't happen very often. Now, it is possible/probable that some of those assisted FG's have been scored while dribbling, but that's unlikely to really be scoring off the dribble. maybe a few

but you have been consistently admitting there are sample size concerns with all this, so I understand your take. The other part of the debate is that we know that Harkless has drifted into invisibility many times when he's been a starter. We just don't know if Jake would display the same inconsistency. I don't have a problem with Jake being elevated to starter, especially with Mo's knee issue. At this point, what I'd prefer is a Mo/Jake rotation at SF, but I'm ok with a Jake/Mo rotation too. Where I have the problem is with Turner being part of it in place or Layman