Trade Larry Nance Jr traded to Portland

[Orion Bailey]

most of that is good analysis

but the idea that Nance is the answer if a team doubles and traps Dame is as silly as the idea that Evan Turner was the answer. The only elite player on the team passing to a role player out of traps doesn't solve that riddle. The goal of the traps is to get the ball out of Dame's hands because teams don't believe other Blazers can consistently beat the defense. Dame's been trapped aggressively in most playoff series. That's put the ball in CJ's hands, or Turner's hands, or Napier's hands, or Nurkic's hands or Melo's hands...and the Blazers have kept losing. Adding Nance to that list isn't changing the equation

nance is much taller than everyone you listed but nurk and melo Nd neither of those guys cant slash to the hole.

To compare nances skills getting a pass out of the trap to melo, napier, cj?

nance is nothing like those players.

this comparison doesn't make sense to me…

the key is Nance knows where to be to get that pass and be effective. The others didn't.
Pretty clear to the eye test for me.
Melo was never under the basket waiting for a dunk.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Might have to pick up his rookie card too

 

[wizenheimer]

I disagree. First of all, when the ball ended up in CJ's hands in the 2019 Denver series, he carried us to our first WCF in 19 years. .

Denver didn't double & trap Dame like most teams have because they didn't have much perimeter length. They put their best defenders on him, and they didn't use drop coverage; but it wasn't the 'full-scale-stop-Dame defenses' that have curb-stomped Portland in the playoffs, over and over. Dame's usage rate was normal. And it's revisionist to say CJ "carried" Portland to the series win. He did have a great game 7. But in the first 6 games of the series, Dame had 163 points on 133 shots; CJ had 148 points on 141 shots. In other words, Dame had scored 15 more points on 8 fewer shots prior to game 7

for the series, even after game 7; CJ had a TS% of .530 while Dame was at .528. CJ scored 9 more points but needed 20 more shots to do so. Dame scored 1.21 points/shot; CJ only scored 1.12 points shot. So, to be accurate, CJ "carried" Portland to a game 7 win. But there wouldn't have been a game 7 if not for Dame AND, Rodney Hood

and as you mentioned, CJ had the perfect opportunity to 'prove' his value...to 'prove' his game 7 was no fluke, in the next series against the Warriors. Unlike Denver, the Warriors did use the 'full-scale-stop-Dame defense' that has been the Blazer downfall. As usual, CJ drew the weaker defenders on the Warriors while Dame was tag-teamed by the best. Dame actually didn't do that bad; he had a TS% .546 while averaging 1.27 points/shot. Meanwhile CJ had a TS% of .481 while averaging 1.05 points/shot. Dame also averaged 8.5 assists that series. He did a decent job against a defense totally focused on him. But he didn't get any support

but more than that is that CJ has been there every single time a playoff opponent has used the blitz-Dame game plan. He was there when Memphis did it; when the Warriors did it 3 times; when the Pels did it; and when the Lakers did it. CJ was front & center in those 6 playoff series when Portland was posting a record of 3-24. That's right, the Blazers have gone 3-24 in the playoffs against those stop-Dame defenses. 6 different versions of the Blazers have all been curb-stomped if Dame's part of the equation is limited

so, CJ isn't the answer, and I'm extremely skeptical that Nance is the key to unlocking this riddle. He's not PG13 or Butler or Kawhi.

 

[Minstrel]

Is this really true though? Simmons is the better passer, but I wonder....

Both guys can set really good screens, so that's not the issue.

In a scenario where Simmons gets the ball dumped to him because of the double on Dame, the obvious move for the defense is to let Simmons shoot in space, or drive and foul him at the rim and make him shoot free throws. Don't let Simmons pass. Absolutely do NOT let him pass. Recover a little slower on Dame to ensure he's not given the ball back.

I don't quite agree with this. First of all, Simmons is great at attacking the basket. Sure, you can foul him--but are you going to do that all game long from the first possession of the first quarter? Regardless of what percentage Simmons shoots those free throws, that's a lot of individual and team fouls every quarter. That doesn't seem sustainable.

And even at the end of a game, all Simmons has to do to not really make the strategy pay off is hit about half his free throws. 1 point per possession isn't incredible offense, but it's solid, especially in crunch time when defenses tend to dial in harder and offensive efficiency goes down. Until last year's flame out performance, he's more than met that standard in the playoffs. If you think he'll always play like his worst ever moment, then yeah, you pass on Simmons. But if you think last year's playoffs was a one-off and he'll more likely be like every season and post-season before that, I think he fits really well into that aspect of Draymond Green's game--getting the ball after a double team on the superstar and leading a four-on-three in the halfcourt.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Doc and the Clippers were extremely effective trapping Dame. This was true to start the 4th of pretty much every Blazer/Clipper game I watched when Doc was there. Doc loved to use taller players like Jordan and Griffin to help out. The exception was when Plumlee took over bringing the ball up the court. Nance can help with the Plumlee role. But it isn't about one guy helping Dame, it is 4 guys helping Dame.

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't quite agree with this. First of all, Simmons is great at attacking the basket. Sure, you can foul him--but are you going to do that all game long from the first possession of the first quarter? Regardless of what percentage Simmons shoots those free throws, that's a lot of individual and team fouls every quarter. That doesn't seem sustainable.

And even at the end of a game, all Simmons has to do to not really make the strategy pay off is hit about half his free throws. 1 point per possession isn't incredible offense, but it's solid, especially in crunch time when defenses tend to dial in harder and offensive efficiency goes down. Until last year's flame out performance, he's more than met that standard in the playoffs. If you think he'll always play like his worst ever moment, then yeah, you pass on Simmons. But if you think last year's playoffs was a one-off and he'll more likely be like every season and post-season before that, I think he fits really well into that aspect of Draymond Green's game--getting the ball after a double team on the superstar and leading a four-on-three in the halfcourt.

Simmons is a 60% career FT shooter. That's 1.2 points/possession. Utah has the best offense in the NBA this year averaging less than 1.15 points/possession.

1.2 > 1.15

 

[Minstrel]

Simmons is a 60% career FT shooter. That's 1.2 points/possession. Utah has the best offense in the NBA this year averaging less than 1.15 points/possession.

1.2 > 1.15

I realize. I was saying that the minimum standard he had to meet to make the strategy work was 50% or so. I didn't give him full credit for his regular season percentage because his playoff percentage is .520 (largely impacted by last year) and people probably consider him "suspect" in the playoffs. But even then, he doesn't have to hit his regular season average to break the strategy.

 

[Predator]

most of that is good analysis

but the idea that Nance is the answer if a team doubles and traps Dame is as silly as the idea that Evan Turner was the answer. The only elite player on the team passing to a role player out of traps doesn't solve that riddle. The goal of the traps is to get the ball out of Dame's hands because teams don't believe other Blazers can consistently beat the defense. Dame's been trapped aggressively in most playoff series. That's put the ball in CJ's hands, or Turner's hands, or Napier's hands, or Nurkic's hands or Melo's hands...and the Blazers have kept losing. Adding Nance to that list isn't changing the equation

CJ - Shoot first.
Turner - Can’t shoot.
Napier - ??? 10 min per game Avg..
Nurkic - Can’t shoot, dribble and arguably a pretty poor finisher.
Melo - Shoot first. Shoot second. Dribble then shoot third.

Nance - Pass. Dribble. Shoot. Attack the rim. Not shoot first. And much taller than CJ. Won’t get sticky with the ball.

I would say it is much, much different than passing to Evan Turner or any other player you listed.

 

[Predator]

Denver didn't double & trap Dame like most teams have because they didn't have much perimeter length. They put their best defenders on him, and they didn't use drop coverage; but it wasn't the 'full-scale-stop-Dame defenses' that have curb-stomped Portland in the playoffs, over and over. Dame's usage rate was normal. And it's revisionist to say CJ "carried" Portland to the series win. He did have a great game 7. But in the first 6 games of the series, Dame had 163 points on 133 shots; CJ had 148 points on 141 shots. In other words, Dame had scored 15 more points on 8 fewer shots prior to game 7

for the series, even after game 7; CJ had a TS% of .530 while Dame was at .528. CJ scored 9 more points but needed 20 more shots to do so. Dame scored 1.21 points/shot; CJ only scored 1.12 points shot. So, to be accurate, CJ "carried" Portland to a game 7 win. But there wouldn't have been a game 7 if not for Dame AND, Rodney Hood

and as you mentioned, CJ had the perfect opportunity to 'prove' his value...to 'prove' his game 7 was no fluke, in the next series against the Warriors. Unlike Denver, the Warriors did use the 'full-scale-stop-Dame defense' that has been the Blazer downfall. As usual, CJ drew the weaker defenders on the Warriors while Dame was tag-teamed by the best. Dame actually didn't do that bad; he had a TS% .546 while averaging 1.27 points/shot. Meanwhile CJ had a TS% of .481 while averaging 1.05 points/shot. Dame also averaged 8.5 assists that series. He did a decent job against a defense totally focused on him. But he didn't get any support

but more than that is that CJ has been there every single time a playoff opponent has used the blitz-Dame game plan. He was there when Memphis did it; when the Warriors did it 3 times; when the Pels did it; and when the Lakers did it. CJ was front & center in those 6 playoff series when Portland was posting a record of 3-24. That's right, the Blazers have gone 3-24 in the playoffs against those stop-Dame defenses. 6 different versions of the Blazers have all been curb-stomped if Dame's part of the equation is limited

so, CJ isn't the answer, and I'm extremely skeptical that Nance is the key to unlocking this riddle. He's not PG13 or Butler or Kawhi.

Damian’s usage rate is lower against the nuggets than it is the warriors in the playoffs

Avg: 29.88 usg vs nuggets and 30.22 against warriors.

we don’t need a Kawhi, pg13 or butler from nance. We need Boris diaw.

 

[B-Roy]

most of that is good analysis

but the idea that Nance is the answer if a team doubles and traps Dame is as silly as the idea that Evan Turner was the answer. The only elite player on the team passing to a role player out of traps doesn't solve that riddle. The goal of the traps is to get the ball out of Dame's hands because teams don't believe other Blazers can consistently beat the defense. Dame's been trapped aggressively in most playoff series. That's put the ball in CJ's hands, or Turner's hands, or Napier's hands, or Nurkic's hands or Melo's hands...and the Blazers have kept losing. Adding Nance to that list isn't changing the equation

The comparison with Turner only makes sense if they used Turner as a center and as the primary PnR big. I don't have the numbers off the top of my head, but I'm willing to bet they did not do that much with Turner. He was mostly the second point guard or relegated to the corner.

The analysis is suggesting that Nance can be the guy who plays off the short roll. Sometimes Dame can't make that pass when he's doubled, and if the ball arrives in Nance's hands past the three point line then it's not really much different than giving the ball up to CJ/Turner or anyone else. But if Dame can make the short roll pass, Nance has so far done a much better job than anyone else we've had in the past playing 4 on 3, except maybe 18-19 Nurk.

 

[blazerfan11]

What I see Golden State do often, when there is a double team on the perimeter, they send the open "role" player to somewhere about half way to the hoop, quickly pass to him and that guy attacks the basket either directly or passes to another teammate, usually another "role player" who has run in near the hoop. It seems to always result in a score.
I don't think you need special players to do this. You need to be prepared to do it, then do it.

 

[Orion Bailey]

CJ - Shoot first.
Turner - Can’t shoot.
Napier - ??? 10 min per game Avg..
Nurkic - Can’t shoot, dribble and arguably a pretty poor finisher.
Melo - Shoot first. Shoot second. Dribble then shoot third.

Nance - Pass. Dribble. Shoot. Attack the rim. Not shoot first. And much taller than CJ. Won’t get sticky with the ball.

I would say it is much, much different than passing to Evan Turner or any other player you listed.

i basically brought that up too….no answer.

 

[wizenheimer]

again, 6 times in the previous 7 playoffs, Portland has faced a team that went 'full-bore-stop-Dame'. We've all seen it

in those 6 series Portland's record has been 3-24. That's when teammates have been Aldridge & Batum & CJ & Aminu & Harkless & Curry & Turner & Kanter & Melo. 3-24; that's an 11% winning percentage. I know people have all kinds of theories about how Nance will change the equation. But the idea that he's the key to somehow flip an 11% winning percentage to at least a 57% winning percentage is a bridge too far for me. I think Portland needs a much better #2 than simply a better #4 or #5.

I'm not saying it's impossible. I just don't find it very credible

 

[Orion Bailey]

again, 6 times in the previous 7 playoffs, Portland has faced a team that went 'full-bore-stop-Dame'. We've all seen it

in those 6 series Portland's record has been 3-24. That's when teammates have been Aldridge & Batum & CJ & Aminu & Harkless & Curry & Turner & Kanter & Melo. 3-24; that's an 11% winning percentage. I know people have all kinds of theories about how Nance will change the equation. But the idea that he's the key to somehow flip an 11% winning percentage to at least a 57% winning percentage is a bridge too far for me. I think Portland needs a much better #2 than simply a better #4 or #5.

I'm not saying it's impossible. I just don't find it very credible

percentages based on the players you listed that were on the team before. Nance was not on the team and may very well have changed those percentages had he been.
Numbers are out the window because the x factor we are liking was not on the team and the players you listed sucked at that type of thing as @Predator specifically noted.

what are the numbers for the trap so far this year?
Then lets check back in a other 15-20 games and see if they have improved from today.

im willing to bet all your percentage stats go out the window this year.

 

[wizenheimer]

percentages based on the players you listed that were on the team before. Nance was not on the team and may very well have changed those percentages had he been.
Numbers are out the window because the x factor we are liking was not on the team and the players you listed sucked at that type of thing as @Predator specifically noted.

what are the numbers for the trap so far this year?
Then lets check back in a other 15-20 games and see if they have improved from today.

im willing to bet all your percentage stats go out the window this year.

apparently you missed I was talking about the playoffs, not "15 or 20" games in the regular season. Playoffs are a lot different than the regular season

 

[Orion Bailey]

apparently you missed I was talking about the playoffs, not "15 or 20" games in the regular season. Playoffs are a lot different than the regular season

Gotcha. Well when we smoke our first round opponent and nance is getting close to triple doubles, ill ask you to eat crow. Lol.

 

[Predator]

i basically brought that up too….no answer.

Saw your post after mine or else I would’ve just replied to yours and said “this”

 

[Orion Bailey]

Saw your post after mine or else I would’ve just replied to yours and said “this”

no worries. I was just thinking we were being ignored but weisen corrected me on that.

 

[Predator]

again, 6 times in the previous 7 playoffs, Portland has faced a team that went 'full-bore-stop-Dame'. We've all seen it

in those 6 series Portland's record has been 3-24. That's when teammates have been Aldridge & Batum & CJ & Aminu & Harkless & Curry & Turner & Kanter & Melo. 3-24; that's an 11% winning percentage. I know people have all kinds of theories about how Nance will change the equation. But the idea that he's the key to somehow flip an 11% winning percentage to at least a 57% winning percentage is a bridge too far for me. I think Portland needs a much better #2 than simply a better #4 or #5.

I'm not saying it's impossible. I just don't find it very credible

Some of us also think that it’s not just about Nance, but also about having a coach that belongs in the NBA rather than coaching 1st grade basketball.

You’ll never convince me that winning percentage isn’t a direct result of having a shit head coach who can’t make adjustments to save his life.

Now, as you said. It’s probably not enough to go from 11% to 57%.

But that 11% number means absolutely nothing to this team because we don’t know what our percentage would’ve been with Nance, Billups and an integrated Powell. It’s completely different team and schemes now. So it’s possible that 11% could be 30% just from adding Billups.. So we are actually trying to make up 27% and not 46% if that makes sense. It’s also possible it could be 0% and we need to make up all 57%.

Portland probably does need a better #2. But that’s not what this was about. I don’t recall anyone saying Nance = championship. I recall them saying that he is a better option than the people you listed and he could help us win *more*… which at 11% from the previous administration shouldn’t exactly be that difficult.

So are you moving the goal posts to Nance won’t win us a championship (duh)?

 

[Predator]

Kinda funny how SVG keeps talking on the broadcast about how Dame is destroying the blitz defense right now.

- The Nuggets are missing they’re 3 best players, doesn’t mean much.

 

[Minstrel]

Kinda funny how SVG keeps talking on the broadcast about how Dame is destroying the blitz defense right now.

- The Nuggets are missing they’re 3 best players, doesn’t mean much.

To be fair, none of the three players missing are a big part of their defense. Or at least, not in blitzing Lillard (Jokic has become a pretty decent team defender, but he's not going to be a big part of doubling Lillard).

 

[wizenheimer]

To be fair, none of the three players missing are a big part of their defense. Or at least, not in blitzing Lillard (Jokic has become a pretty decent team defender, but he's not going to be a big part of doubling Lillard).

Portland & Denver have met twice in the playoffs and the Nuggets haven't really 'blitzed' Dame either time. They focused on him in 2018-19, but that was by putting their best perimeter defender on him and occasionally trapping him in certain parts of the floor. At screens, their bigs would hedge more toward Dame; while not hedging toward CJ or any other ball-handler.

last year, Denver just played Dame straight because they didn't have any real perimeter length on defense. Dame averaged 34 & 10 with a PER of 25 and a 62% TS mark. I don't know if the Nuggets made the bet that the other Blazers wouldn't give Dame enough support or if the injuries left them no choice. If it was a bet, it was a good one

 

[Predator]

His USG rating is lower against the Nuggets than the “blitzing” warriors. Still haven’t countered that yet…

 

[Predator]

To be fair, none of the three players missing are a big part of their defense. Or at least, not in blitzing Lillard (Jokic has become a pretty decent team defender, but he's not going to be a big part of doubling Lillard).

I think Jokic is a big part of the reason that their rotations were a little off

MPJr probably missing is a defensive boon for them though lol

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Larry Nance Jr., making good things happen

 

[B-Roy]

Larry Nance Jr., making good things happen

View attachment 42619

Great, now convince Chauncey to play him more.

 

[Freshtown]

Any update on his injury? It’s weird that he suffered a non-contact knee injury and no one has talked about it or provided any updates.

 

[riverman]

I mentioned in another post that possibly he hyperextended the knee which would be great because he just needs to rest that....he walked to the lockerroom on his own which makes me think that might be how he got the injury without contact....could have just stretched a ligament or tendon past it's normal point....hyperextension

 

[blazedanugz]

Any update on his injury? It’s weird that he suffered a non-contact knee injury and no one has talked about it or provided any updates.

usually means not good when it’s this quiet

 

[THE HCP]

Any update on his injury? It’s weird that he suffered a non-contact knee injury and no one has talked about it or provided any updates.

Why is it "weird"? A CONTACT injury is a lot easier to diagnose. Non-Contact is where shit gets interesting. Takes longer to find what actually got hurt since it was on the way up.