OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Even though it comes a year later he intended,
David Lee will finally get his big payday this summer. The 27-year-old failed to land a multi-year contract as a restricted free agent last offseason but, after a 20-and-10 season, that might have been a blessing in disguise.
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David Lee, PF/C
AGE: 27
HT: 6-9
WT: 240
WING: 7-0
VERT: 32½ inches
PPG: 13.0
RPG: 9.6
BPG: 0.4
FG% .557
FT% .774
WHAT HE'S WORTH: 4 years, $40 million
WHAT HE'LL GET: 5 years, $60 million
GOOD FITS: Bulls, Suns, Nets, Heat, Knicks
LESS THAN IDEAL: Kings, Clippers, Timberwolves
NEXT-LEVEL STATS
PER: 22.0 (14th in NBA)
EWA: 17.5 wins (5th)
Usage Rate: 23.8 percent of team poss. (40th)
Off. Rating: 116 pts. per 100 poss. (NBA average: 108)
Def. Rating: 108 pts. allowed per 100 (NBA average: 108)
Off. Rebound Rate: 8.4 percent of rebounds while on floor
Def. Rebound Rate: 27.6 percent of rebounds while on floor
Tot. Rebound Rate: 17.9 percent of rebounds while on floor
Adjusted plus/minus: -3.8 (250th)
... indicates the player's plus/minus, adjusted to account for both strength of teammates and the opponents on the floor with a player over the course of the season.
81
RELIABILITY RATING
A composite rating that quantifies a player's offensive dependability on a 1 to 100 scale after considering efficiency, shot creation, playing time and clutch performance. [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1966"]LeBron James[/URL] is a 98, [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2177"]David West[/URL] is a 75 and [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3970"]DeMarre Carroll[/URL] is a 10.
ComponentStat%Rank
CLUTCH22.4 points per 48 clutch mins.65
USAGE23.8 percent of team poss.77
EFFICIENCY116 points per 100 poss.86
RUN37.3 minutes per game91
DEPRECIATION
Career Regular-Season Games: 368
Missed Regular-Season Games: 27
Durability Percentage: 91.7
Injury Concerns: None
Injury Risk: Mild; minor issues with right knee
CAREER SUMMARY
Despite being selected 30th overall in 2005, David Lee may end up as the NBA's highest scoring Florida Gator of all-time. Mike Miller currently has the edge in career points per game with 13.7 to Lee's 13.0 but that figures to change as Lee enters his prime and Miller phases out of the league.
Along with
Carlos Boozer and
Amare Stoudemire, Lee completes the free agent triumvirate of scoring power forwards who can't play defense. However, Lee distinguishes himself from Boozer and Stoudemire with his will to improve his game and all-out effort that enamored the
New York Knicks' fans.
Behind Lee's hustle, though, there's also a player who has made himself into an impressively skilled scorer and one of the most efficient big men in the league.
After three years in New York, Lee developed a reputation as a clean-up artist on the block without a complementary midrange game. That all changed this past season, in which he shot nearly 400 jumpers between 16-to-23 feet -- more than his first three years combined -- and ranked among the league leaders with a 43.4 percent conversion rate, according to
Hoopdata.com.
Lee unlocked his scoring potential just in time for free agency, which should allow teams with elite point guards to target him as a versatile screen counterpart and not just a glorified rebounder. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Lee is already one of the best pick-and-roll big men in the business, averaging 1.31 points after receiving the ball on a pick-and-roll, better than any of his counterparts in free agency. (That efficiency rate helps refute arguments that his stats are inflated by coach Mike D'Antoni's system.)
But even with his new scoring arsenal, Lee hasn't lost his touch on the boards. The former slam dunk contest winner at the McDonald's All-American game uses his underrated athleticism to position himself well for rebounding opportunities. At that point, it's all about effort -- something Lee rarely lacks. Only
Dwight Howard collected more defensive rebounds than Lee this past season, and the Florida alum consistently finds himself among the league leaders in rebounding rate (the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds while on the floor).
Up to this point, Lee sounds like he's worth a max contract. However, as is the case with Boozer and Stoudemire, Lee's defensive liabilities eclipse much of his offensive firepower.
Teams make it a nightly priority to abuse Lee on the block. In fact, according to Synergy, he faced more post-up situations per game than any other player in the NBA last season -- and with good reason. More often than not, on 51.1 percent of post-ups, in fact, Lee either fails to stop his man on the block or sends him to the line, ranking him as one of the worst defending big men in the league among those who play big minutes.
Lee does have one advantage on D over the guys he'll be competing against for free agency dollars. "I think Lee has a better motor than [Stoudemire and Boozer]," one league exec said. "So he probably overcomes more of his deficiencies with his energy, athleticism and hustle."
But as much as Lee's work ethic has fueled the development of his midrange jumper, it has yet to transform his defensive game. As much as teams like effort, they pay for results. And for that reason, it's hard to see a team offering Lee near max money, despite his great offensive efficiency.
One league exec put it this way: "I really don't feel confident that if you sign David Lee, your fans are going to say, 'Oh wow -- this two year period of absolute futility was worth it.'"
But after considering the splash premium that Stoudemire will likely receive, Lee could be a real bargain this summer. By many measures, including John Hollinger's player efficiency rating (PER), Lee even ranks as the better player of the two. And that's before one considers Lee's spotless injury record.
FINDING THE RIGHT FIT
Whereas Boozer and Stoudemire have played on the playoff stage year after year, Lee has never had that opportunity nor the personnel to propel him there. But that inexperience could actually be a draw for some teams.
"Lee didn't play with anyone who made him better, so that's intriguing," one league source said. "He's one of those guys who may have some latent upside just because you've never seen him play with a really good player."
So who will bring out that hidden upside?
Even without a creative point guard to cultivate his scoring potential, Lee remains a fantastic option in the pick-and-roll. In that sense, he's a good fit in Phoenix, should Stoudemire bolt and the Suns can find a taker for
Leandro Barbosa and the $14 million left on his contract. Lee brings a lot of the same skills as Amare, but he'll come at a discount.
Lee could conceivably pair up with
Derrick Rose in Chicago, where he'd also give the Bulls the scoring big man they've long desired, albeit not one who'll go to work on the low block. And
Joakim Noah could help cover up Lee's defensive weaknesses inside.
The
New Jersey Nets can also complement Lee with an inside-out tandem of former All-Star point guard
Devin Harris and budding star center
Brook Lopez. New head coach
Avery Johnson could covet the Lee and his grit over pricier alternatives, while leaving room for another big signing. But the Nets may instead upgrade at Lee's position through the draft on Thursday night.
The Knicks may not possess the existing personnel to compete with the Bulls or the Nets, but they have the luxury of knowing Lee's game better than anyone else. And they finally have the cap room to surround him with the talent he deserves.
One thing's for sure: Lee won't bring a team a championship on his own. But he won't sink his next franchise with the weight of an undeserved contract, either.
Tom Haberstroh is a regular contributer to ESPN Insider. Data courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology, DraftExpress.com and Hoopdata.com.
