Event NBA Lottery 2022

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Fairly-Hard said:
If The Blazers pick is 4 or later and Chet is available? They better take him. What are you thinking?
Never mind? Chet is going 1, 2, or 3. Even if the Blazers get one of those picks they might take him. If they get 3 and he's there they will take him.
Bet on it.
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I guess we want to add to our long list of Centers that bust or get injured within their first few years. I have ZERO desire to continue that trend. We'd be Morons to take him in the top 3 if Sharpe, Ivey, Banchero or Jabari Smith are available and stone cold insane with suicidal ideation to take him in the top 2.
 
Shit! This is intense. There are so many permutations right now and they significantly get narrowed down in a little over an hour. Then we've got six weeks to see what we'll do with what we have. It could be a huge turning point for our team.
 
Fairly-Hard said:
We are getting the 7th pick. You can play that simulator hundreds of times and #7 comes up the most and continues to come up. The more you play the more it becomes obvious 7th pick is in the cards.
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we have a 30% chance of getting the number 7 pick and a 70% chance of not getting the number 7 pick so I am not sure how you come to that conclusion.
 
The fact is that we have a better chance of ending up in the top 4 than we do of ending up at 7 specifically. Obviously of all of the specific destinations 7 is the most likely but we're talking about less than a 30% chance so I wouldn't bet the house on us ending up there. The problem is that 8 is the second most likely destination for us and the two together (7 and 8) are a 50.3% chance so it's more likely than not that we end up in one of those two spots. What's cool is that we had less than a 6% chance to land the number one pick in 2007 and we have a 9% chance of landing there in a little more than an hour.
 
blazerkor said:
The fact is that we have a better chance of ending up in the top 4 than we do of ending up at 7 specifically. Obviously of all of the specific destinations 7 is the most likely but we're talking about less than a 30% chance so I wouldn't bet the house on us ending up there. The problem is that 8 is the second most likely destination for us and the two together (7 and 8) are a 50.3% chance so it's more likely than not that we end up in one of those two spots. What's cool is that we had less than a 6% chance to land the number one pick in 2007 and we have a 9% chance of landing there in a little more than an hour.
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Then we just need to pick the correct guy which is Banchero or Smith. Period.
 
If you could swap any possible lottery pick and instead take the 5th pick would you do it?

Give up any possibility of getting the 1, 2, 3 or 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 and take the #5 instead?
 
SlyPokerDog said:
If you could swap any possible lottery pick and instead take the 5th pick would you do it?

Give up any possibility of getting the 1, 2, 3 or 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 and take the #5 instead?
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No
 
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What pick will the Blazers get? Come see our live reaction and give your reaction to the reveal as well!
 
Idog1976 said:
Then we just need to pick the correct guy which is Banchero or Smith. Period.
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I think there's a lot more to it. If Cronin has a way to add more talent than just that top pick then you're right it's just about picking the right guy but it might end up being about moving back to a spot where we can still draft an impact starter and use whatever we get when trading back to pick up another starter.

We really need an upgrade at both forward positions in my opinion. I love the idea of Hart, Little and Winslow all coming off the bench for us. Bottom line is that Dame will need a veteran that he thinks is an upgrade from what he's played with before in order to stay happy and it seems like Cronin's first priority is to appease the Vulcans and his second priority is to make Dame happy... I don't think winning a championship is high enough on his priority list but I'm not the one who has to try and keep that job.
 
My answer Sly would be ..... YES

I think the 5th spot is a perfect pick


My worst fear is the Blazers slide as far back as possible and NO ends up with a Top 3 pick
 
SlyPokerDog said:
If you could swap any possible lottery pick and instead take the 5th pick would you do it?

Give up any possibility of getting the 1, 2, 3 or 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 and take the #5 instead?
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The smart answer would be yes and I'm glad it's not an option because I wouldn't do the smart thing. I'd want that 9% chance to get the first pick and 37.2% chance to move up higher than 5.
 
we should have had a poll going on which team would be the first to jump the order into the top-4. I wouldn't care much if Oregon wasn't the first just as long as they were one of the other three

but, since about the trade deadline I've been expecting the 7th pick while hoping for a lot better luck than that
 
KSF-ERIC said:
4 or 5 times; we ran it on our podcast and got 1
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I guess I'm reading your statement wrong. Sure i'm certain you can get a top 3 out of running this simulation a number of times.
I read your original statement as "Every Time you have run it".
I have run that simulation quite a bit. Top 3 does not come up every time you run it.
 
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blazerfan11 said:
we have a 30% chance of getting the number 7 pick and a 70% chance of not getting the number 7 pick so I am not sure how you come to that conclusion.
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I'm coming up with exactly the way i said I'm coming up with it.
 
Amount I care about the game: 0.1%

Amount I care about the lottery: 99.99%

C'mon, ping pong balls!
 
It's here!!! All of the anticipation and dread is about to disipate into elation, horror or just plain old MEH.
 
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