Next bargain-bin player?

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I think we would get a huge net positive return on CJ if we got him to one of the few teams that could use him and value him. The reason being is that the Dame/CJ combo is less than the sum of their talent. CJ takes possessions away from Dame and vice versa, neither are great defenders (CJ is horrible) especially guarding bigger guards, both need the ball in their hands to be effective, they just don't compliment each other at all unless were talking about giving each other praise and then they are incredibly complimentary. This team has a lot of talent actually if we cash in what value CJ has and abandon the Dame/CJ failure.

Nurk is already good but he's going to be a really effective player in this league for a while. I still think Zach has a lot to contribute as an athletic role playing big who has good form on his jumper. Nas is going to be really good. If Hood comes back he's another positive. If we can lock Gary up for a long time he is going to be the kind of contributor that helps win championships. Ariza has value both as talent now and an expiring contract. We have the MLE, all of our draft picks and supposedly Melo will sign min level contract for next season. As far as both the Stoffence and Tefence go, exchange CJ for a defensive ball hawking wing who only has to score on the break and hit wide open spot up threes. If we did that we would be able to force like 8 more turnovers a game leading to transition offense opportunities, we'd stop having constant blow buys putting our bigs in bad positions and if we did score more fast break points it would make our half court offense more potent because it wouldn't be our only scoring weapon (oh and we actually, as has been pointed out, use the p&r all of the time not iso and would iso even less without CJ).

I don't think too many teams would give up good value for CJ, especially not with his contract

as has been mentioned many times, his best fit would probably be on a team that has an unorthodox wing as the primary ball-handler and facilitator. Like Philly with Simmons, or Milwaukee with Giannis. I'd also point at Dallas with Doncic, and yuck, even the Lakers with Lebron

the problem is that Philly won't be trading Simmons for CJ and Dallas won't trade Porzingas for CJ. And I seriously doubt the Bucks would trade Middleton for CJ. So that would leave targets like Tobias Harris (worse contract than CJ), Eric Bledsoe, Tim Hardaway, etc. and that's before trying to match salaries. Seems like it would almost have to be a 3-team trade to get the wheels greased enough. And of course in order for the Blazers to consider trading CJ, the biggest wheel needing grease would be the wheel that takes Olshey out of town

I posted those PnR and isolation stats because there was discussion about the offense, and when I looked it up I was a little surprised just how good the Blazers were at it. 2nd in frequency and best ppp in the league. I guess I should have not been surprised because Dame is so very good at the PnR and that makes up nearly 52% of his possessions. It's no wonder then that teams jump the Blazer PnR with Dame in the playoffs. It's Portland's best offense

the disappointing component in the PnR is how weak Blazer post men are as the rollers. Whiteside averaged 1.16 ppp; that was 27% of his possessions and that was only good enough for the 61st percentile. Nurkic only averaged .86 ppp (20.4% of possessions) and that was a dismal 18th percentile. Nurkic was better last season but was only at 1.13 PPP (25% of possessions) and that was only the 60th percentile. Meyers was best at it averaging 1.31 ppp, which was the 86th percentile. But obviously, the numbers don't distinguish between PnR and PnPop. This season, Skal and Tolliver were best as roll men averaging 1.21 PPP

but I think we've all seen that Nurkic has a major flaw on shots around the rim. He throws up a ton of not-a-chance-in-hell shots inside 7 feet, and he has no patience at all. He absolutely must get a lot better at that because if he did get better, trapping Dame would be more difficult for the opposing defenses if Nurkic made them pay a heavier price....if that makes any sense
 
the disappointing component in the PnR is how weak Blazer post men are as the rollers. Whiteside averaged 1.16 ppp; that was 27% of his possessions and that was only good enough for the 61st percentile. Nurkic only averaged .86 ppp (20.4% of possessions) and that was a dismal 18th percentile. Nurkic was better last season but was only at 1.13 PPP (25% of possessions) and that was only the 60th percentile. Meyers was best at it averaging 1.31 ppp, which was the 86th percentile. But obviously, the numbers don't distinguish between PnR and PnPop. This season, Skal and Tolliver were best as roll men averaging 1.21 PPP

but I think we've all seen that Nurkic has a major flaw on shots around the rim. He throws up a ton of not-a-chance-in-hell shots inside 7 feet, and he has no patience at all. He absolutely must get a lot better at that because if he did get better, trapping Dame would be more difficult for the opposing defenses if Nurkic made them pay a heavier price....if that makes any sense
Do you have stats for Embiid?
 
Do you have stats for Embiid?

I'll run down the list of major minutes players

player - frequency - points/possession:

Mitchell Robinson 26.0% 1.66
Brandon Clarke 22.9% 1.51
Christian Wood 19.7% 1.50
Damian Jones 34.9% 1.49
Maxi Kleber 25.7% 1.45
Jarrett Allen 29.3% 1.37
Nerlens Noel 32.6% 1.37
Dwight Powell 27.0% 1.35
Mason Plumlee 23.7% 1.34
DeAndre Jordan 22.3% 1.33
John Collins 28.0% 1.31
Montrezl Harrell 17.3% 1.31
Jakob Poeltl 19.8% 1.31
Taj Gibson 23.7% 1.31
Steven Adams 22.5% 1.29
Bam Adebayo 17.7% 1.18
Anthony Davis 12.7% 1.28
Gorgui Dieng 1.26
Jonas Valanciunas 1.25
Thomas Bryant 28.5% 1.24
Rudy Gobert 27.4% 1.22
Anthony Tolliver 19.0% 1.21
Richaun Holmes 28.4% 1.21
Skal Labissiere 27.5% 1.21
Bam Adebayo 17.7% 1.18
Hassan Whiteside 27.0% 1.16
Chris Boucher 26.1% 1.15
Derrick Favors 27.8% 1.15
Aron Baynes 26.3% 1.14
Jusuf Nurkic 24.6% 1.13 (last season)
Nikola Vucevic 27.1% 1.11
Domantas Sabonis 30.3% 1.11
Nikola Jokic 16.9% 1.03
Joel Embiid 10.7% 0.95

If Nurkic is the long term starting C for Portland, he simply must get much better at PnR roll man. Dame is so dynamic if he had a big that was in the top 15%-20%, the Blazer PnR would be deadly. And this is another reason to look cross-eyed at that 2017 draft. Blazers could have John Collins and Jarret Allen, two guys that would have thrived with Dame on the PnR
 
in the Dame/CJ era, Portland has averaged 45 regular season wins and 2.6 playoff wins. That's not the record of a contender. I'm not sure why next season would suddenly alter that trajectory and put them in the mix. But maybe I just didn't understand what you meant by mix
How about 53-55 wins and top 4 in the west. That is very achievable with this core and a few tweaks.
 
How about 53-55 wins and top 4 in the west. That is very achievable with this core and a few tweaks.

they've already achieved that twice in 7 years and it didn't make them contenders. They've also had 51 and 49 win seasons....still pretenders.

sure I could be wrong, I have been before...but having watched this team for the 8 years of Stotts and the 5 years of Dame/CJ I'm fairly well convinced they won't be altering their trajectory by scheme changes, tweaks, and shuffling around lower levels of the rotation. The weakness is at the top

maybe they can build enough depth to overcome some injuries, but even that's a major challenge while paying Dame/CJ 60-70% of the salary cap over the next 4 years

again, kj, I might of misunderstood what you meant by "being in the mix"
 
they've already achieved that twice in 7 years and it didn't make them contenders. They've also had 51 and 49 win seasons....still pretenders.

sure I could be wrong, I have been before...but having watched this team for the 8 years of Stotts and the 5 years of Dame/CJ I'm fairly well convinced they won't be altering their trajectory by scheme changes, tweaks, and shuffling around lower levels of the rotation. The weakness is at the top

maybe they can build enough depth to overcome some injuries, but even that's a major challenge while paying Dame/CJ 60-70% of the salary cap over the next 4 years

again, kj, I might of misunderstood what you meant by "being in the mix"
No. you also know better than this. They had 50+ wins three times. The first was with Aldridge and Lillard made the .09 against the Rockets. Lost to the Spurs in the second round. Lillard was a rookie. 54 wins
The next was the next year. we all know what happened. Mathews went down and not much happened after Aldridge quit. 51 wins
Then last year they got to the conference finals in spite of the injuries and loss of Nurkic. Are you really thinking that if they were healthy they would not have been a threat last season? 53 wins.
The 44 win season they went to the second round on was a gift. The Clippers would have won that if Paul was healthy i'm pretty sure.

The remaining 41 and 49 win seasons are just that. Pretenders that had some heart but wings that could not hit a shot to save their life in the last 5 mins of a game.

Like i said they need one good bargain basement player and a good trade. This team could be right back to conference finals if HEALTHY. If you make the final four you are in the mix. We all know anything can happen after that.
 
Did everyone think Miami were contenders this year? Like legit chance at a title contenders?

No, but they are also a new team so took us by surprise. I don't see how the Blazers can do that by just keeping the same players.
 
No, but they are also a new team so took us by surprise. I don't see how the Blazers can do that by just keeping the same players.
I think its just that players and combinations can surprise. Completely writing off a team seems foolish to me.
 
No, but they are also a new team so took us by surprise. I don't see how the Blazers can do that by just keeping the same players.

Only 2 players (Dame & CJ) played significant minutes in the WCF run in 18-19 and played more than 21 games for us in 19-20.
 
I'll run down the list of major minutes players

player - frequency - points/possession:

Mitchell Robinson 26.0% 1.66
Brandon Clarke 22.9% 1.51
Christian Wood 19.7% 1.50
Damian Jones 34.9% 1.49
Maxi Kleber 25.7% 1.45
Jarrett Allen 29.3% 1.37
Nerlens Noel 32.6% 1.37
Dwight Powell 27.0% 1.35
Mason Plumlee 23.7% 1.34
DeAndre Jordan 22.3% 1.33
John Collins 28.0% 1.31
Montrezl Harrell 17.3% 1.31
Jakob Poeltl 19.8% 1.31
Taj Gibson 23.7% 1.31
Steven Adams 22.5% 1.29
Bam Adebayo 17.7% 1.18
Anthony Davis 12.7% 1.28
Gorgui Dieng 1.26
Jonas Valanciunas 1.25
Thomas Bryant 28.5% 1.24
Rudy Gobert 27.4% 1.22
Anthony Tolliver 19.0% 1.21
Richaun Holmes 28.4% 1.21
Skal Labissiere 27.5% 1.21
Bam Adebayo 17.7% 1.18
Hassan Whiteside 27.0% 1.16
Chris Boucher 26.1% 1.15
Derrick Favors 27.8% 1.15
Aron Baynes 26.3% 1.14
Jusuf Nurkic 24.6% 1.13 (last season)
Nikola Vucevic 27.1% 1.11
Domantas Sabonis 30.3% 1.11
Nikola Jokic 16.9% 1.03
Joel Embiid 10.7% 0.95

If Nurkic is the long term starting C for Portland, he simply must get much better at PnR roll man. Dame is so dynamic if he had a big that was in the top 15%-20%, the Blazer PnR would be deadly. And this is another reason to look cross-eyed at that 2017 draft. Blazers could have John Collins and Jarret Allen, two guys that would have thrived with Dame on the PnR
What about Cousins (when he was healthy last)?

Based on this list, it looks like Wood (UFA), Jones (RFA), Noel (UFA) should be our FA targets. Noel would likely be the best 'value' of the three.
 
What about Cousins (when he was healthy last)?

Based on this list, it looks like Wood (UFA), Jones (RFA), Noel (UFA) should be our FA targets. Noel would likely be the best 'value' of the three.
I just don’t see Golden State letting him go very easily.
 
Only 2 players (Dame & CJ) played significant minutes in the WCF run in 18-19 and played more than 21 games for us in 19-20.

So judging from bubble+ playoffs Ariza and Hood will make us a contender in this West that now includes Lakers, Clippers and improved Nuggets?
 
I think its just that players and combinations can surprise. Completely writing off a team seems foolish to me.

Miami is a bad comp for where the Blazers are IMO

they added Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, and for the most part, Duncan Robinson to their rotation this year at the same time Adebayo was exploding. That's like 4 new starters. So yeah, their new players and new combinations proved to really alter the team and propel them into contention. And it was pretty obvious by January when they were 25-9 they had a good thing going

Portland has been in the playoffs for 7 straight seasons. We've seen the good and the bad. They almost certainly won't be adding a player like Butler to the top of the rotation, and probably not a player like Crowder to the middle of the rotation, although Ariza might be close. And Zach won't be playing like Adebayo next season. And they have limited flexibility to add players or combinations that don't just shuffle around 4th or 5th or 6th options

yeah, Olshey could alter the team significantly and re-tool the roster. But every time he's done that before, Portland has gotten worse
 
So judging from bubble+ playoffs Ariza and Hood will make us a contender in this West that now includes Lakers, Clippers and improved Nuggets?

I'm not saying Olshey's moves in the summer of 2019 were good, I'm saying we're not bringing back the same team year after year. I believe your point was that Miami's roster had changed and Portland's had not, which I don't believe to be true.
 
I'm not saying Olshey's moves in the summer of 2019 were good, I'm saying we're not bringing back the same team year after year. I believe your point was that Miami's roster had changed and Portland's had not, which I don't believe to be true.

Like wizenheimer said Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Miami lucked into Adebayo exploding and Herro, Robinson being great. Even Nunn had a great season although he is out of the rotation now. They also added Crowder and Iguodala few months ago and everyone had forgotten Dragic because of his injury last season but the guy is really really good. Yes nobody predicted that because it was lots of pieces falling in right place. And it was moves in top of hierarchy. Basically Butler, Adebayo are their best players.

We just doing lateral moves it seems while competition has taken big steps forward.
 
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Whom?

Cousins was part of the Lakers team last year.
Jones played for Atlanta last year.

Neither one was part of GSW...
My bad. What i should have said is it's hard for me to understand why the Warriors gave up on him? He was cheap. They were not going anywhere last season anyway. I wonder if he is really worth the effort?
And yes i had totally forgot he was even on the Lakers.
 
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Like wizenheimer said Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Miami lucked into Adebayo exploding and Herro, Robinson being great. .
Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Last year we were in the WCF, and then in the offseason went out and swapped out 8 of the top 13 players from last season in minutes played! Did the moves work out? No. Injuries hit, and we didn't have the same LUCK that Miami did with Robonson, Herro, etc. But everyone acts like we sat on our hands and did absolutely nothing when the team moved half their players! Sometimes you have the luck of a guy busting out that pushes you to contender. That could have been Zach for us, but he got hurt. Or Simons. Or if Trent played earlier, whatever. We didn't. But that's my point, it takes that luck often times, especially if you're not a team with Lebron. Because one year we didn't have it, we're pretenders and never going to amount to more to some people, but yet every year teams sneak through with that luck.
 
Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Last year we were in the WCF, and then in the offseason went out and swapped out 8 of the top 13 players from last season in minutes played! Did the moves work out? No. Injuries hit, and we didn't have the same LUCK that Miami did with Robonson, Herro, etc. But everyone acts like we sat on our hands and did absolutely nothing when the team moved half their players! Sometimes you have the luck of a guy busting out that pushes you to contender. That could have been Zach for us, but he got hurt. Or Simons. Or if Trent played earlier, whatever. We didn't. But that's my point, it takes that luck often times, especially if you're not a team with Lebron. Because one year we didn't have it, we're pretenders and never going to amount to more to some people, but yet every year teams sneak through with that luck.

Did Miami have "luck", or did they draft and develop some useful players while the Blazers were farting around with guys like Simons, Swanigan, Zach, etc?
 
Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Last year we were in the WCF, and then in the offseason went out and swapped out 8 of the top 13 players from last season in minutes played! Did the moves work out? No. Injuries hit, and we didn't have the same LUCK that Miami did with Robonson, Herro, etc. But everyone acts like we sat on our hands and did absolutely nothing when the team moved half their players! Sometimes you have the luck of a guy busting out that pushes you to contender. That could have been Zach for us, but he got hurt. Or Simons. Or if Trent played earlier, whatever. We didn't. But that's my point, it takes that luck often times, especially if you're not a team with Lebron. Because one year we didn't have it, we're pretenders and never going to amount to more to some people, but yet every year teams sneak through with that luck.

now that I can agree with...to a point at least. Having some good luck is probably a significant factor in making most teams contenders. And Miami has some foundational good luck that Portland can't mimic: great weather (except for an occasional hurricane) and no state income tax. So compared to Portland they begin the race with a little better traction.

Miami loaded up on their good luck in 2020. But, it sure looks like lots of that was luck they made for themselves. They landed an elite player in Butler, and all they paid for him was Whiteside, Richardson, and a lottery protected 1st several years from now. I think Dame is a little better than Butler, but Butler is a 2-way wing, and wings are the most valuable position. Adebayo exploded but that was some 2017 luck and it could have just been good scouting rather than luck, They traded Waiters, Winslow, and Johnson for Crowder and Iggy. Was that good luck or was that the Miami front office willing to take the kind of risks Portland's front office retreats from?

looks to me like a big part of Miami's luck is evaluating talent better than Portland, in both trades and the draft, and a willingness to take much bigger risks.

Portland has had some good luck too but it's just been spread out over several years. Drafting Dame was franchise altering good luck. Trading for Nurkic instead of Jahlil Okafor was very good luck. Finding Gary Trent in the 2nd round was good luck. But an 8 year period will see plenty of bad luck cancel the good luck, and that has certainly happened with Portland

and of course, a lot of what we're calling luck is just a combination of good and bad decisions by management. Miami has made more good ones and less bad ones than Portland

so then I guess that leaves people such as myself, pessimistic about the roster and management while believing the Blazers are in purgatory, open to criticism for those views because, you know, Portland might be stumbling into some good luck next year. Ok then, it's going to be a fresh deck of cards this off-season, but it sure would be better if the card-player was somebody like Pat Riley than Olshey. Riley has been 'lucky', again and again, for 50 years
 
now that I can agree with...to a point at least. Having some good luck is probably a significant factor in making most teams contenders. And Miami has some foundational good luck that Portland can't mimic: great weather (except for an occasional hurricane) and no state income tax. So compared to Portland they begin the race with a little better traction.

Miami loaded up on their good luck in 2020. But, it sure looks like lots of that was luck they made for themselves. They landed an elite player in Butler, and all they paid for him was Whiteside, Richardson, and a lottery protected 1st several years from now. I think Dame is a little better than Butler, but Butler is a 2-way wing, and wings are the most valuable position. Adebayo exploded but that was some 2017 luck and it could have just been good scouting rather than luck, They traded Waiters, Winslow, and Johnson for Crowder and Iggy. Was that good luck or was that the Miami front office willing to take the kind of risks Portland's front office retreats from?

looks to me like a big part of Miami's luck is evaluating talent better than Portland, in both trades and the draft, and a willingness to take much bigger risks.

Portland has had some good luck too but it's just been spread out over several years. Drafting Dame was franchise altering good luck. Trading for Nurkic instead of Jahlil Okafor was very good luck. Finding Gary Trent in the 2nd round was good luck. But an 8 year period will see plenty of bad luck cancel the good luck, and that has certainly happened with Portland

and of course, a lot of what we're calling luck is just a combination of good and bad decisions by management. Miami has made more good ones and less bad ones than Portland

so then I guess that leaves people such as myself, pessimistic about the roster and management while believing the Blazers are in purgatory, open to criticism for those views because, you know, Portland might be stumbling into some good luck next year. Ok then, it's going to be a fresh deck of cards this off-season, but it sure would be better if the card-player was somebody like Pat Riley than Olshey. Riley has been 'lucky', again and again, for 50 years

Thank you. That was the point I wanted to make, but you did it much better!
 
Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Last year we were in the WCF, and then in the offseason went out and swapped out 8 of the top 13 players from last season in minutes played! Did the moves work out? No. Injuries hit, and we didn't have the same LUCK that Miami did with Robonson, Herro, etc. But everyone acts like we sat on our hands and did absolutely nothing when the team moved half their players! Sometimes you have the luck of a guy busting out that pushes you to contender. That could have been Zach for us, but he got hurt. Or Simons. Or if Trent played earlier, whatever. We didn't. But that's my point, it takes that luck often times, especially if you're not a team with Lebron. Because one year we didn't have it, we're pretenders and never going to amount to more to some people, but yet every year teams sneak through with that luck.

The fact we didn't sit on our hands doesn't mean we can become contenders though. That's what we are talking about here. We haven't changed our style of play and haven't tried to improve our weaknesses for many years in a row. Still when it matters it's trap Lillard game over. Seriously it's same basketball every year and we just depend on the leaps Lillard will make. We almost went home by the Nets this season. We are unlucky for sure, but it's more than that.
 
The fact we didn't sit on our hands doesn't mean we can become contenders though. That's what we are talking about here. We haven't changed our style of play and haven't tried to improve our weaknesses for many years in a row. Still when it matters it's trap Lillard game over. Seriously it's same basketball every year and we just depend on the leaps Lillard will make. We almost went home by the Nets this season. We are unlucky for sure, but it's more than that.

exactly

Portland's Achilles heel in the playoffs since they beat Houston in 2014 has been that when good teams focus their defense on Dame, there is no other singular talent on the roster good enough to punish that defense. Portland keeps rebooting the roster without addressing that flaw. This offseason is just about certain to be the 7th straight reboot and the fatal flaw will still be there. Until that's fixed they are pretenders
 
Like wizenheimer said Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Miami lucked into Adebayo exploding and Herro, Robinson being great. Even Nunn had a great season although he is out of the rotation now. They also added Crowder and Iguodala few months ago and everyone had forgotten Dragic because of his injury last season but the guy is really really good. Yes nobody predicted that because it was lots of pieces falling in right place. And it was moves in top of hierarchy. Basically Butler, Adebayo are their best players.

We just doing lateral moves it seems while competition has taken big steps forward.

I agree with you that Miami changed their team. I didn't agree with the statement that Portland just rolled back the same roster last year as the season prior. If we were to add a Jimmy Butler, Crowder, and a stud rookie types to our roster, we would be in the discussion, especially out East. Do I think Olshey will do that? No.
 
I agree with you that Miami changed their team. I didn't agree with the statement that Portland just rolled back the same roster last year as the season prior. If we were to add a Jimmy Butler, Crowder, and a stud rookie types to our roster, we would be in the discussion, especially out East. Do I think Olshey will do that? No.

he didn't roll out the same roster in terms of personnel. Names were changed and talent was downgraded

the problem was he exchanged Kanter, Aminu, Harkless, Curry, Turner, Meyers, and Layman for Whiteside, Bazemore, Hezonja, Tolliver, Little, and Gabriel. And later added Melo and Jaylen Hoard. After Whiteside, it was downgrades across the board, and basically, the hell with defense. H rolled out a different roster, and it was worse. He's done that before

this was the 2nd time Olshey revamped the roster. The first time was the Dame/Aldridge team. In the last 2 years of that team they won 105 regular season games. In the first two years of Olshey's new team, they won 85 games. Now, he's worked his magic on the first permutation of the Dame/ CJ team. Over the last two years of that team, Portland won 102 regular season games and two playoff series. In the first year of the new team, Portland won the equivalent of 39 games. That means they'd have to win 63 games and make it to the WCF again, just to match the previous team's 2 year record. LOL...what are the chances for that...that's really not a question

I've spent decades as a remodeling contractor. If I managed my jobs the way Olshey has managed the Blazers, cabinets would fall off the wall into a puddle of water from the leaking roof
 
Miami is a bad comp for where the Blazers are IMO

they added Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, and for the most part, Duncan Robinson to their rotation this year at the same time Adebayo was exploding. That's like 4 new starters. So yeah, their new players and new combinations proved to really alter the team and propel them into contention. And it was pretty obvious by January when they were 25-9 they had a good thing going

Portland has been in the playoffs for 7 straight seasons. We've seen the good and the bad. They almost certainly won't be adding a player like Butler to the top of the rotation, and probably not a player like Crowder to the middle of the rotation, although Ariza might be close. And Zach won't be playing like Adebayo next season. And they have limited flexibility to add players or combinations that don't just shuffle around 4th or 5th or 6th options

yeah, Olshey could alter the team significantly and re-tool the roster. But every time he's done that before, Portland has gotten worse

You forgot Meyers Leonard.

And, hey, Meyers could be a bargain bin player this year so I have that covered.

Oh, and Olshey sucks.

Did I do that right?
 

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