Rebuild Around Dame

[illmatic99]

Team building was Olshey's worst trait. I think he had no clue on how to build synergy between the players to develop an on-court product that was better than the sum of the parts. And given our relatively barren chest of assets, figuring out the right pieces to put together is vital. For all intents and purposes, this season is done. We OWE it to Dame to build quickly around him and we have multiple templates on how best to go about this. But there can't be any room for error in decision making or picks.

Here's how I see it:

1. Convince Dame of a quick rebuild and to get surgery asap.
1a. Add that 100 mil extension in the summer as incentive for him to stay. It is a bullet we have to bite, but the shock value will wear off once the new TV deal kicks in and bumps the cap again.

2. Tank. Getting a top 3 pick can jumpstart our rebuild in a big way.

3. Duck the tax. I want that full MLE this summer.

4. Get whatever assets you can for Roco. And I have no intention of losing yet another FA for nothing in return. We need to target players/picks who we will have on the books for more than just this year. I think a team like Minny/NY will cave and drop a first for Roco. Utah and GS have also been rumored. Getting our pick back from CHI could be a simple deal, but ideally I'd want more especially considering we'll keep it anyway for missing the playoffs.

5. I'm torn on Nurk. First instinct is to trade him simply for change, but we might be able to get him for cheap this summer given how few teams are in the market for a 15-20 mil C. I'd gauge what Klutch is looking for and deal him somewhere where we can either get contracts that extend past this year for commensurate talent at either F or C, or picks.

6. I don't trade CJ until the summer unless an obvious deal (Simmons/Siakam) presents itself. I don't see too many teams interested in him right now, while more might be inclined in the summer. But he eventually has to go.

7. Keep Nas at all costs. This is our Mikal Bridges equivalent. Also, keep Larry. He's on a very reasonable and tradeable contract that expires in 2023. Could be a future trade chip.

8. If we can find an upgrade at any position from Norm, move him. I'm OK keeping him as well. He's an average starter quality player who makes a very reasonable amount of money whose contract will always be tradeable.

9. If we can't find a deal for a similar caliber player as Ant at a forward position, pay Ant (~15 mil/4 yrs). He could develop into our permanent super 6th man that many hoped CJ would become.

By start of next season, I want Dame fully recovered and engaged. No more of this cryptic bullshit that deters potential FAs. That is key. Then I want a top rookie prospect and the right developmental coaches to get him to star level in 3 yrs. Then ancillary pieces that FIT. Get size/defense/athleticism. I just don't know if Cronin is the guy to be able to accomplish all this, or if he's empowered by this completely disengaged ownership to execute his plan.

 

[Blazinaway]

disagree on the additional extension, no way for me

 

[Minstrel]

2. Tank. Getting a top 3 pick can jumpstart our rebuild in a big way.

Unfortunately, you can't plan for this. Even the team with the worst record has a below 50% chance of getting a top-three pick (and barely a coin flip chance of getting top four).

By start of next season, I want Dame fully recovered and engaged. No more of this cryptic bullshit that deters potential FAs. That is key. Then I want a top rookie prospect and the right developmental coaches to get him to star level in 3 yrs.

Even if this went perfectly and you get your star in three years (unlikely), Lillard will be exiting his prime. I don't see how this makes sense for Lillard, whom you want super onboard and motivated. You're essentially selling him on a plan where he won't have star help for three more years. And that's assuming everything goes perfectly, as most top picks do not become franchise players. And even if, by some miracle, Lillard is cool with that and the draft pick pans out as a star--pairing a young star with a fading star really doesn't scream title contender. The timelines are just not synched.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Yeah, sit dame. No where else where he'd be able to be traded and have time to heal/get surgery without expectations.

Showcase CJ the rest of the season for an off season trade.

 

[TBpup]

disagree on the additional extension, no way for me

At least wait until he is closer to that time to see if he is remotely worth that type of money. Olshey signed CJ before he had to.....and it was brutal.

 

[illmatic99]

Unfortunately, you can't plan for this. Even the team with the worst record has a below 50% chance of getting a top-three pick (and barely a coin flip chance of getting top four).



Even if this went perfectly and you get your star in three years (unlikely), Lillard will be exiting his prime. I don't see how this makes sense for Lillard, whom you want super onboard and motivated. You're essentially selling him on a plan where he won't have star help for three more years. And that's assuming everything goes perfectly, as most top picks do not become franchise players. And even if, by some miracle, Lillard is cool with that and the draft pick pans out as a star--pairing a young star with a fading star really doesn't scream title contender. The timelines are just not synched.

Losing more = worse record = better lottery prospects. Sure we might not get a top pick but it's certainly better than killing Dame and worsening his injury for a chance at the play in while maybe even having a chance at having no pick.

The merits of tanking have not changed even with the new odds. And the 100 mil is my reasoning to get dame to buy in to the plan.

So I take it you're in the trade dame crowd?

 

[Blazinaway]

At least wait until he is closer to that time to see if he is remotely worth that type of money. Olshey signed CJ before he had to.....and it was brutal.

exactly, I interpreted OP as to do that now/soon - no way on that, a few years down the line then evaluate, we have already committed to him big time with that huge extension which ends when he is 35

 

[Minstrel]

So I take it you're in the trade dame crowd?

Nope. Wrote a post against doing that in the Trade Dame Now thread.

 

[Natebishop3]

Yeah, sit dame. No where else where he'd be able to be traded and have time to heal/get surgery without expectations.

Showcase CJ the rest of the season for an off season trade.

Trade CJ so he doesn't fuck up our draft pick.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Trade CJ so he doesn't fuck up our draft pick.

The assets we get from CJ should help the team. The better we pump up his trade value, the more we'll get back.

If we just dump CJ for something that won't help us, well, that doesn't do us any good.

 

[Natebishop3]

The assets we get from CJ should help the team. The better we pump up his trade value, the more we'll get back.

If we just dump CJ for something that won't help us, well, that doesn't do us any good.

If we're going to build around Dame, we need to blow it up and tank for the best pick possible. That means trading Nurk and Roco and CJ.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

If we're going to build around Dame, we need to blow it up and tank for the best pick possible. That means trading Nurk and Roco and CJ.

That sounds pretty short sighted. We try to max value for the players. Trading our whole core for crap in the hopes we luck into a lottery pick AND the chance that the player will actually be an impact player doesn't seem like a wise decision.

 

[illmatic99]

exactly, I interpreted OP as to do that now/soon - no way on that, a few years down the line then evaluate, we have already committed to him big time with that huge extension which ends when he is 35

dame only becomes officially eligible for the extension this summer.

 

[blazerkor]

I think we get Dame healthy, completely healthy through whatever means we have to and have him ready for next season or the very end of this season if he just wants to get some run in.

I would have a fire sale with everyone else (except Nas) with the goal being cap flexibility this upcoming off season, a second pick in the first round and adding Ben Simmons. Also I would want to be under the luxury tax.

I think you could get Simmons. It would take trades to accumulate draft picks and then moving some of those picks and probably both CJ and Larry. The picks and cap flexibility would come from moving RoCo, Nurk, Norm and Ant for the picks and expiring contracts.

I would then have Simmons and Nas start with DSJ, Tony and Cody for the rest of the season. I'd want Simmons to get used to a new Giannis type role instead of seeing himself as a PG. He could feel the freedom to try new things and fail as much as he wants like he's expressed a desire to have. I think this would result in a win percentage at the end of the season that would put us near the bottom of the league (even lower than we are now).

Then we can draft a big time rookie with our pick and another good rookie with a second first rounder left over after the Simmons trade. If we got the top pick and signed younger min contract guys then we could have ~14M to sign one impact free agent and the full MLE.

So next season we would build a roster with Dame, Simmons, Nas, our FRP, 14M FA, MLE FA, a later FRP and min players.

 

[illmatic99]

I think we get Dame healthy, completely healthy through whatever means we have to and have him ready for next season or the very end of this season if he just wants to get some run in.

I would have a fire sale with everyone else (except Nas) with the goal being cap flexibility this upcoming off season, a second pick in the first round and adding Ben Simmons. Also I would want to be under the luxury tax.

I think you could get Simmons. It would take trades to accumulate draft picks and then moving some of those picks and probably both CJ and Larry. The picks and cap flexibility would come from moving RoCo, Nurk, Norm and Ant for the picks and expiring contracts.

I would then have Simmons and Nas start with DSJ, Tony and Cody for the rest of the season. I'd want Simmons to get used to a new Giannis type role instead of seeing himself as a PG. He could feel the freedom to try new things and fail as much as he wants like he's expressed a desire to have. I think this would result in a win percentage at the end of the season that would put us near the bottom of the league (even lower than we are now).

Then we can draft a big time rookie with our pick and another good rookie with a second first rounder left over after the Simmons trade. If we got the top pick and signed younger min contract guys then we could have ~14M to sign one impact free agent and the full MLE.

So next season we would build a roster with Dame, Simmons, Nas, our FRP, 14M FA, MLE FA, a later FRP and min players.

effectively, a similar approach to what i'm advocating. not sure simmons is on the table, unfortunately, especially for that kinda package. but the template for rebuild is clear:

- Dame
- 2nd star who could be a top 25 player
- really good young prospect
- defenders/shooters that can make up for dame's weaknesses

As I said in the OP though, the pieces have to be correct. You can't just throw any old talent together. Building around a non-defensive, ball dominant guard is not easy. But if surgery can prolong his prime for a few more years, this kinda approach is doable. A finals appearance with a 34 yr old Dame leading the way would be cool.

 

[SlyPokerCat]

I think we get Dame healthy, completely healthy through whatever means we have to and have him ready for next season or the very end of this season if he just wants to get some run in.

I would have a fire sale with everyone else (except Nas) with the goal being cap flexibility this upcoming off season, a second pick in the first round and adding Ben Simmons. Also I would want to be under the luxury tax.

I think you could get Simmons. It would take trades to accumulate draft picks and then moving some of those picks and probably both CJ and Larry. The picks and cap flexibility would come from moving RoCo, Nurk, Norm and Ant for the picks and expiring contracts.

I would then have Simmons and Nas start with DSJ, Tony and Cody for the rest of the season. I'd want Simmons to get used to a new Giannis type role instead of seeing himself as a PG. He could feel the freedom to try new things and fail as much as he wants like he's expressed a desire to have. I think this would result in a win percentage at the end of the season that would put us near the bottom of the league (even lower than we are now).

Then we can draft a big time rookie with our pick and another good rookie with a second first rounder left over after the Simmons trade. If we got the top pick and signed younger min contract guys then we could have ~14M to sign one impact free agent and the full MLE.

So next season we would build a roster with Dame, Simmons, Nas, our FRP, 14M FA, MLE FA, a later FRP and min players.

Did something change where you get the MLE and cap space to use? In the past the MLE was only available for teams over the cap and you couldn't have the MLE and cap space.

 

[blazerkor]

Did something change where you get the MLE and cap space to use? In the past the MLE was only available for teams over the cap and you couldn't have the MLE and cap space.

You're right, we would still have a mini MLE we could use that's around 5M after we spent what we had under the cap.

 

[hoopsjock]

Give Dame the extension, no doubt in my mind, but want to make all the trade rumors disappear?

Agree to sign it towards the end of the off season. He'd be ineligible to be traded for 6 months, which would be after the trade deadline. This means no Dame trade talk all next year.

 

[Natebishop3]

That sounds pretty short sighted. We try to max value for the players. Trading our whole core for crap in the hopes we luck into a lottery pick AND the chance that the player will actually be an impact player doesn't seem like a wise decision.

That's what happens when you sit on a treadmill for years. Time is not on our side. We don't get to play the long con here. You take what you can get and you move on. Nurk is a free agent after this season. RoCo is a free agent after this season. We are out of time.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

That's what happens when you sit on a treadmill for years. Time is not on our side. We don't get to play the long con here. You take what you can get and you move on. Nurk is a free agent after this season. RoCo is a free agent after this season. We are out of time.

So we don't have a lot of time, and your solution is to dump existing talent for nothing, tank and rely on the draft (and the luck of the draw), which takes a few years for a player to develop, if they even do at all?

 

[Natebishop3]

So we don't have a lot of time, and your solution is to dump existing talent for nothing, tank and rely on the draft (and the luck of the draw), which takes a few years for a player to develop, if they even do at all?

Where did I say nothing? If you let them walk at the end of the year you'll get nothing.

 

[SlyPokerCat]

Where did I say nothing? If you let them walk at the end of the year you'll get nothing.

Like Aldridge. Letting that happen is why we are in this mess.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Where did I say nothing? If you let them walk at the end of the year you'll get nothing.

You said to trade them so "they don't fuck up our draft pick". Well, at least CJ. What would you want to trade CJ for then?

If we trade them for players that would help us, that will fuck up our tank position. If we trade them so we can tank, then those players would be worse than letting guys walk.


Are you suggesting we trade them for future draft picks then?

I believe ROCO and Nurk are expiring contracts and are players that could help certain teams. We would be able to get value back.

 

[SlyPokerCat]

You said to trade them so "they don't fuck up our draft pick". Well, at least CJ. What would you want to trade CJ for then?

If we trade them for players that would help us, that will fuck up our tank position. If we trade them so we can tank, then those players would be worse than letting guys walk.


Are you suggesting we trade them for future draft picks then?

I believe ROCO and Nurk are expiring contracts and are players that could help certain teams. We would be able to get value back.

Trade CJ for a better fit. Like the Warriors did for Bogut.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Trade CJ for a better fit. Like the Warriors did for Bogut.

Sure, that's fine. Wouldn't you want to maximize value? Play CJ iso ball for the rest of the year, that should help the tank AND raise his trade value in the offseason.


There's no rush to trade CJ if we are sitting Dame. We are afforded the luxury of waiting it out a bit.

 

[illmatic99]

Sure, that's fine. Wouldn't you want to maximize value? Play CJ iso ball for the rest of the year, that should help the tank AND raise his trade value in the offseason.


There's no rush to trade CJ if we are sitting Dame.

a team like NYK or SAC, or hell even the Pels will overpay for CJ in the summer after flaming out. I don't see a big market for CJ right now, especially given his building injury list.

 

[SlyPokerCat]

Sure, that's fine. Wouldn't you want to maximize value? Play CJ iso ball for the rest of the year, that should help the tank AND raise his trade value in the offseason.

There's no rush to trade CJ if we are sitting Dame. We are afforded the luxury of waiting it out a bit.

As long as we tank. If we do that by moving Nurkic and Roco for assets instead of them potentially walking. I'm fine holding him until the offseason.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

As long as we tank. If we do that by moving Nurkic and Roco for assets instead of them potentially walking. I'm fine holding him until the offseason.

Totally down to trade Nurk and Roco.

 

[Hoopguru]

Last 40 years, 16 of 30 teams, have won a championship.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

a team like NYK or SAC, or hell even the Pels will overpay for CJ in the summer after flaming out. I don't see a big market for CJ right now, especially given his building injury list.

I'm hoping Indiana or Toronto, personally.