Scoot 2024-25

[wizenheimer]

Key things to look at:

First two years

Total minutes
Giddey - 4067 total minutes played
Scoot - 3524 total minutes played

Starts
Giddey - 130 starts
Scoot - 42 starts

MPG
Giddey - 31.1
Scoot - 27.5

Giddey just flatly had a better opportunity to play in his first two seasons.

It's interesting to see how similar their development has been from year one to year two in shooting.

Two points
Giddey (yr 1) 49.2% from 2
Scoot (yr 1) 41.6% from 2

Giddey (yr 2) 52.4% from 2 (+3.14%)
Scoot (yr 2) 47% from 2 (+5.4%)

Three points
Giddey (yr 1) 26.3%
Scoot (yr 1) 32.5%

Giddey (yr 2) 32.5% (+3.2%)
Scoot (yr 2) 35.4% (+2.9%)

eFG%
Giddey (yr 1) 46%
Scoot (yr 1) 44%

Giddey (yr 2) 51.6% (+5.6%)
Scoot (yr 2) 49.6% (+5.6%)

TS%
Giddey (yr 1) 47.8%
Scoot (yr 1) 48.9%

Giddey (yr 2) 53.3% (+5.5%)
Scoot (yr 2) 54% (+5.1%)

so you want to compare 2 players at the same time in their careers even though one has advanced quite a ways past that point...ok:



Deni a little more efficient as a shooter; he got to FT line a little more and shot fewer three's. Giddey better overall; better at rebounding, assists, blocks, steals, defense. Higher winshare/48, BPM, VORP. Giddey had a 2.47 assist/turnover ratio; Deni 1.79. Deni was on a worse team so a little skew disadvantage there. Giddey on a little better team, and by the way, Giddey's team had a better record than Portland this season so it's not a case he had a clear runway on a terrible team while Scoot was buried on a good team

as I said, this was a maybe yes, maybe not trade idea for me. I probably lean yes because I like Giddey's trajectory, versatility, and length and think he'd be a better fit with Jrue and Dame; and the proposed contract value seemed good. But I can understand why people suspect he's fool's gold

 

[Natebishop3]

so you want to compare 2 players at the same time in their careers even though one has advanced quite a ways past that point...ok:

View attachment 74852

Deni a little more efficient as a shooter; he got to FT line a little more and shot fewer three's. Giddey better overall; better at rebounding, assists, blocks, steals, defense. Higher winshare/48, BPM, VORP. Giddey had a 2.47 assist/turnover ratio; Deni 1.79. Deni was on a worse team so a little skew disadvantage there. Giddey on a little better team, and by the way, Giddey's team had a better record than Portland this season so it's not a case he had a clear runway on a terrible team while Scoot was buried on a good team

as I said, this was a maybe yes, maybe not trade idea for me. I probably lean yes because I like Giddey's trajectory, versatility, and length and think he'd be a better fit with Jrue and Dame; and the proposed contract value seemed good. But I can understand why people suspect he's fool's gold

Sure but they play different positions. Unless you think Deni is a point guard. I think FTA is the key though. That's where Deni really separates himself from Giddey right now. So do you think Giddey is going to keep pace?
Deni went from 0.8 FTA -> 1.7 FTA -> 2.2 FTA -> 3.6 FTA -> 5.2 FTA.
Giddey went from 1.5 FTA -> 1.9 FTA -> 1.6 FTA -> 3.2 FTA

They're similar rebounders and Giddey is the better passer, but Deni's style is attack attack attack. That's why he is so good at generating fouls. I'm not sure Giddey can match that. I think Deni will have another jump in FTA this year.

I think Scoot and Giddey seem to have similar pass-first tendencies and interestingly they seem to be on similar trajectories in terms of development. Giddey is clearly a better rebounder and I don't think that's going to change. The main thing is that I don't think Giddey is going to take any more massive leaps. I think he is what he is. I think Scoot's floor is what Giddey is now. I think he has a much higher ceiling if he can conquer the mental side of the game. He's just a better athlete.

Do you think Giddey is going to take another leap?

 

[wizenheimer]

Sure but they play different positions. Unless you think Deni is a point guard. I think FTA is the key though. That's where Deni really separates himself from Giddey right now. So do you think Giddey is going to keep pace?
Deni went from 0.8 FTA -> 1.7 FTA -> 2.2 FTA -> 3.6 FTA -> 5.2 FTA.
Giddey went from 1.5 FTA -> 1.9 FTA -> 1.6 FTA -> 3.2 FTA

They're similar rebounders and Giddey is the better passer, but Deni's style is attack attack attack. That's why he is so good at generating fouls. I'm not sure Giddey can match that. I think Deni will have another jump in FTA this year.

I think Scoot and Giddey seem to have similar pass-first tendencies and interestingly they seem to be on similar trajectories in terms of development. Giddey is clearly a better rebounder and I don't think that's going to change. The main thing is that I don't think Giddey is going to take any more massive leaps. I think he is what he is. I think Scoot's floor is what Giddey is now. I think he has a much higher ceiling if he can conquer the mental side of the game. He's just a better athlete.

Do you think Giddey is going to take another leap?

he hasn't really leaped, he's just got better every season; and he's only 22. So, I'd anticipate he will continue to improve; just like Deni. I mean, Deni didn't leap between his 4th season and 5th season, but he got better. I'd anticipate the same for Giddey, and he was a year younger than Deni at the same stage.

 

[Natebishop3]

he hasn't really leaped, he's just got better every season; and he's only 22. So, I'd anticipate he will continue to improve; just like Deni. I mean, Deni didn't leap between his 4th season and 5th season, but he got better. I'd anticipate the same for Giddey, and he was a year younger than Deni at the same stage.

Going from 1.6 to 3.2 is a leap. He had stagnated a bit in his first three seasons. So will he continue to go up because Deni went from 3.6 to 5.2.

I think Giddey also has a pretty massive leap in 3p% when he got to Chicago.

It will be interesting to see what he does this season but my gut says he will level off.

 

[wizenheimer]

Going from 1.6 to 3.2 is a leap. He had stagnated a bit in his first three seasons. So will he continue to go up because Deni went from 3.6 to 5.2.

I think Giddey also has a pretty massive leap in 3p% when he got to Chicago.

It will be interesting to see what he does this season but my gut says he will level off.

his PER went up 9%; TS went up 4%; rebounding stayed the same. His minutes went down 17% in his 3rd season so the 3rd-->4th season differentials are skewed quite a bit

his 3 pt% did jump up from .337 to .378. But Deni's 3pt% went from .297 to .374 between his 3rd and 4th season. Giddey only improved by 12% while Deni improved by 26%. Not sure Giddey made much of a leap. Deni leveled off in three's last season; possible Giddey will do the same, but somebody who is versatile on both ends of the floor with good length, who can pass & rebound like he does, have a solid assist/turnover mark, plays good defense, and shoots in the 37-38% range from three has pretty good value

Giddey's biggest leap statistically occurred after the Bulls traded LaVine. Giddey really started cooking over the last 25-26 games. Bulls went 17-9 over that time with Giddey leading the way

 

[Phatguysrule]

It's a lot closer if you look at Giddey's last year in OKC when they played similar minutes and Giddey was behind SGA.

But Giddey has averaged over 30 mpg for 3 of his 4 seasons. Scoot has never been given that opportunity.

View attachment 74850

Crazy how opportunity and working through mistakes can help young guys develop faster.

 

[wizenheimer]

Crazy how opportunity and working through mistakes can help young guys develop faster.

I tend to agree, but it's worth noting that Giddey has averaged 29.3 minutes while Scoot has averaged 27.5. A 1.8 minute difference isn't very significant. Giddey has a 23.0% usage rate; Scoot 24.5%. Giddey has averaged .200 FGA/possession; Scoot has averaged .206

I know Scoot's role has been a little different, but there isn't any major opportunity difference other than more seasons. I'm not really buying the opportunity excuse. Giddey did make a jump when LaVine was traded. Maybe Scoot will make a jump with Simons not around

 

[Phatguysrule]

I tend to agree, but it's worth noting that Giddey has averaged 29.3 minutes while Scoot has averaged 27.5. A 1.8 minute difference isn't very significant. Giddey has a 23.0% usage rate; Scoot 24.5%. Giddey has averaged .200 FGA/possession; Scoot has averaged .206

I know Scoot's role has been a little different, but there isn't any major opportunity difference other than more seasons. I'm not really buying the opportunity excuse. Giddey did make a jump when LaVine was traded. Maybe Scoot will make a jump with Simons not around

Scoot playing the 2 beside Simons and Grant isn't what I would call a great "opportunity" for him...

 

[wizenheimer]

Scoot playing the 2 beside Simons and Grant isn't what I would call a great "opportunity" for him...

c'mon man....he hasn't played SG, although that does point out his lack of versatility

Scoot played alongside Simons (28% & 25% usage rates), Grant (26% & 19% usage rates) & Sharpe (22% & 25% usage rates). Meanwhile, Giddey played alongside SGA (33% & 33% usage rates), Jalen Williams (18% & 24% usage rates), Zach LaVine (27% usage) and Coby White (25% usage). Again, there's no significant opportunity difference there. except that SGA was by far the highest usage player either Scoot or Giddey played with

 

[Natebishop3]

his PER went up 9%; TS went up 4%; rebounding stayed the same. His minutes went down 17% in his 3rd season so the 3rd-->4th season differentials are skewed quite a bit

his 3 pt% did jump up from .337 to .378. But Deni's 3pt% went from .297 to .374 between his 3rd and 4th season. Giddey only improved by 12% while Deni improved by 26%. Not sure Giddey made much of a leap. Deni leveled off in three's last season; possible Giddey will do the same, but somebody who is versatile on both ends of the floor with good length, who can pass & rebound like he does, have a solid assist/turnover mark, plays good defense, and shoots in the 37-38% range from three has pretty good value

Giddey's biggest leap statistically occurred after the Bulls traded LaVine. Giddey really started cooking over the last 25-26 games. Bulls went 17-9 over that time with Giddey leading the way

Yeah he had a good post-All-star



Deni was really good too though.



Another interesting one

Giddey


Scoot

 

[wizenheimer]

Yeah he had a good post-All-star

View attachment 74857

Deni was really good too though.

View attachment 74858

Another interesting one

Giddey
View attachment 74859

Scoot
View attachment 74860

Sharpe was pretty good over the last 20 games. That 3pt% though....

 

[BankTeller]

This would make it easier if Giddey was a better player, but that would also be the reason that the Bulls lock him up and this isn’t even a situation. I’d be more excited about Giddey if we didn’t have Avdija. But, we do have Avdija, who I think is a better all around player imo. Giddey is a better playmaker, but Avdija is a much better defender and he probably is a better shooter.

I’m going to bank on Scoot and his work ethic. With his physical gifts and true PG type of game, I think having two All-NBA type of vets on both sides of the ball is going to turn him into an all-around PG.

 

[Natebishop3]

This would make it easier if Giddey was a better player, but that would also be the reason that the Bulls lock him up and this isn’t even a situation. I’d be more excited about Giddey if we didn’t have Avdija. But, we do have Avdija, who I think is a better all around player imo. Giddey is a better playmaker, but Avdija is a much better defender and he probably is a better shooter.

I’m going to bank on Scoot and his work ethic. With his physical gifts and true PG type of game, I think having two All-NBA type of vets on both sides of the ball is going to turn him into an all-around PG.

Plus... you know... the whole underage girl thing.

 

[Phatguysrule]

c'mon man....he hasn't played SG, although that does point out his lack of versatility

Scoot played alongside Simons (28% & 25% usage rates), Grant (26% & 19% usage rates) & Sharpe (22% & 25% usage rates). Meanwhile, Giddey played alongside SGA (33% & 33% usage rates), Jalen Williams (18% & 24% usage rates), Zach LaVine (27% usage) and Coby White (25% usage). Again, there's no significant opportunity difference there. except that SGA was by far the highest usage player either Scoot or Giddey played with

True, I guess maybe he wasn't slotted in at the two, but it didn't feel like he was running the show as the 1 either...

My point was simply that these were not good opportunities for Scoot.

 

[wizenheimer]

True, I guess maybe he wasn't slotted in at the two, but it didn't feel like he was running the show as the 1 either...

My point was simply that these were not good opportunities for Scoot.

as a rookie, he had a higher usage rate than Grant, Brogdon, Sharpe, Ayton, and Camara. Last season Ant's usage rate was only 8.5% higher than Scoot's; Avdija's usage rate was only 3% higher than Scoot's. That's practically insignificant; did Avdija have enough opportunities to show his skills? Last season, Scoot's usage rate was higher than Grant, Ayton, and Camara

career usage rates:

Scoot 24.5%
Simons 23.7%
Giddey 23.0%
Brogdon 22.4%
Sharpe 22.4%
Grant 19.8%

last season, touches/game stats:

Simons: 65.1 touches--->4.49 seconds/touch--->292.3 seconds with ball (4.0 dribbles/touch)-->0.296 points/touch
Scoot: 59.8 touches--->4.52 seconds/touch--->270.3 seconds with ball (4.01 dribbles/touch)-->0.212 points/touch
Avdija: 64.5 touches--->3.07 seconds/touch--->198.0 seconds with ball (2.25 dribbles/touch)-->0.262 points/touch
Sharpe: 52.2 touches--->3.42 seconds/touch--->178.5 seconds with ball (2.86 dribbles/touch)-->0.355 points/touch
Grant: 41.0 touches--->2.55 seconds/touch--->104.6 seconds with ball (1.74 dribbles/touch)-->0.352 points/touch
Camara: 44.2 touches--->1.99 seconds/touch--->88.0 seconds with ball (1.14 dribbles/touch)-->0.256 points/touch
Ayton: 45.1 touches--->1.61 seconds/touch--->72.6 seconds with ball (0.57 dribbles/touch)-->0.320 points/touch

Jrue: 46.5 touches--->3.22 seconds/touch--->149.7 seconds with ball (2.79 dribbles/touch)-->0.238 points/touch

obviously, the points/touch stat will be skewed against players that are running the offense for the team more; and in favor of players looking for their own shots more

Scoot had the ball in his hands 72.3 seconds more a game than Deni. Simons only had the ball for 22 more seconds than Scoot; less than 6 seconds/quarter. Scoot had the ball for 91.8 seconds more than Sharpe; that's more than a minute and a half, per game. Scoot had the ball 2.76 more minutes a game than Grant

again, you'd expect a bit of similar skew for PG's and guys who run the offense. But Scoot was 3rd on the team in touches; 1st in seconds/touch; and 2nd in time of possession. It's not a good excuse to claim he didn't have opportunity. I get that roles can make a difference if players aren't put in optimal situations. But still, Scoot and the ball were not strangers to each other

 

[Phatguysrule]

as a rookie, he had a higher usage rate than Grant, Brogdon, Sharpe, Ayton, and Camara. Last season Ant's usage rate was only 8.5% higher than Scoot's; Avdija's usage rate was only 3% higher than Scoot's. That's practically insignificant; did Avdija have enough opportunities to show his skills? Last season, Scoot's usage rate was higher than Grant, Ayton, and Camara

career usage rates:

Scoot 24.5%
Simons 23.7%
Giddey 23.0%
Brogdon 22.4%
Sharpe 22.4%
Grant 19.8%

last season, touches/game stats:

Simons: 65.1 touches--->4.49 seconds/touch--->292.3 seconds with ball (4.0 dribbles/touch)-->0.296 points/touch
Scoot: 59.8 touches--->4.52 seconds/touch--->270.3 seconds with ball (4.01 dribbles/touch)-->0.212 points/touch
Avdija: 64.5 touches--->3.07 seconds/touch--->198.0 seconds with ball (2.25 dribbles/touch)-->0.262 points/touch
Sharpe: 52.2 touches--->3.42 seconds/touch--->178.5 seconds with ball (2.86 dribbles/touch)-->0.355 points/touch
Grant: 41.0 touches--->2.55 seconds/touch--->104.6 seconds with ball (1.74 dribbles/touch)-->0.352 points/touch
Camara: 44.2 touches--->1.99 seconds/touch--->88.0 seconds with ball (1.14 dribbles/touch)-->0.256 points/touch
Ayton: 45.1 touches--->1.61 seconds/touch--->72.6 seconds with ball (0.57 dribbles/touch)-->0.320 points/touch

Jrue: 46.5 touches--->3.22 seconds/touch--->149.7 seconds with ball (2.79 dribbles/touch)-->0.238 points/touch

obviously, the points/touch stat will be skewed against players that are running the offense for the team more; and in favor of players looking for their own shots more

Scoot had the ball in his hands 72.3 seconds more a game than Deni. Simons only had the ball for 22 more seconds than Scoot; less than 6 seconds/quarter. Scoot had the ball for 91.8 seconds more than Sharpe; that's more than a minute and a half, per game. Scoot had the ball 2.76 more minutes a game than Grant

again, you'd expect a bit of similar skew for PG's and guys who run the offense. But Scoot was 3rd on the team in touches; 1st in seconds/touch; and 2nd in time of possession. It's not a good excuse to claim he didn't have opportunity. I get that roles can make a difference if players aren't put in optimal situations. But still, Scoot and the ball were not strangers to each other

And without Simons (which is when these number get skewed up for Scoot) Scoot often played great.

*Edit* I'd also like to say, Grant at 19% is probably twice what it should be. He should be getting the ball in position to score and that's it. Catch and shoot or on the cut to the basket.

If it's not an easy look he should be passing almost immediately.

 

[wizenheimer]

And without Simons (which is when these number get skewed up for Scoot) Scoot often played great.

*Edit* I'd also like to say, Grant at 19% is probably twice what it should be. He should be getting the ball in position to score and that's it. Catch and shoot or on the cut to the basket.

If it's not an easy look he should be passing almost immediately.

I don't agree about Grant. His two very solid seasons in Portland prior to last season had usages rates around 23% and 26%. Dropping his usage rate didn't result in better efficiency. I know Grant bugged a lot of people here last season. He didn't have a good year. But he had been a really effective player the two previous seasons when he was a more used option. And if you believe Grant's usage rate should have been under 10%, then you haven't really looked at the stat

as far as Scoot and Simons, that 2-man combo was 8th best on the Blazers last season. On the other hand Simons+Sharpe was the 4th worst. Simons was toxic for Sharpe (Grant was even worse for Sharpe); not really that way with Scoot

the 4th best 2-man combo was Scoot-Sharpe and they were only one of four that had a positive net points differential at +0.5. Simons+Sharpe were -9.0. Sharpe (+0.5), Simons (-1.3) and Camara (-0.4) were all better with Scoot than was Avdija (-5.3). Avdija + Clingan (+3.5); Avdija + Camara (+0.8); Avdija+Simons (-0.6); Avdija+Sharpe (-1.3); Avdija+Grant (-2.7); Avdija+Ayton (-4.2) were all better than Avdija+Scoot....and that's not encouraging.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I don't agree about Grant. His two very solid seasons in Portland prior to last season had usages rates around 23% and 26%. Dropping his usage rate didn't result in better efficiency. I know Grant bugged a lot of people here last season. He didn't have a good year. But he had been a really effective player the two previous seasons when he was a more used option. And if you believe Grant's usage rate should have been under 10%, then you haven't really looked at the stat

as far as Scoot and Simons, that 2-man combo was 8th best on the Blazers last season. On the other hand Simons+Sharpe was the 4th worst. Simons was toxic for Sharpe (Grant was even worse for Sharpe); not really that way with Scoot

the 4th best 2-man combo was Scoot-Sharpe and they were only one of four that had a positive net points differential at +0.5. Simons+Sharpe were -9.0. Sharpe (+0.5), Simons (-1.3) and Camara (-0.4) were all better with Scoot than was Avdija (-5.3). Avdija + Clingan (+3.5); Avdija + Camara (+0.8); Avdija+Simons (-0.6); Avdija+Sharpe (-1.3); Avdija+Grant (-2.7); Avdija+Ayton (-4.2) were all better than Avdija+Scoot....and that's not encouraging.

I didn't even watch Grant last season. Actively avoided watching him. I hated him holding the ball the prior two seasons

 

[BankTeller]

Plus... you know... the whole underage girl thing.

That had zero bearing on why I’d prefer Scoot over Giddey.

All we know is she sneaked into the club with a fake id, bragged about it on snapchat, her family declined to press charges, and no consequences were handed out.