Game Thread SEEDING GAME# 4: BLAZERS @ NUGGETS - AUGUST 6, 2020 - THURSDAY, 5:00, NBCSNW

[wizenheimer]

I would recommend stocking up on whiskey then.

that's not a problem because while other have been hoarding toilet paper, I've focused on internal alcohol

 

[AldoTrapani]

CJ will be called upon to be huge in coming games, and i believe he will deliver. I don't compare GT to Allan though. GT is wayyyyyyy better. I liked Crabbe, but he was no GT. GT has special written all over him.

In your opinion what kind of special are you thinking?

 

[AldoTrapani]

I agree

comparing Dame/CJ to either the Detroit Duo or the Spurs duo is just nuts. There only real comparison is they were all short guards (although Dumars had a great wingspan).

unlike CJ, Dumars could actually resemble a PG. He could run an offense and was a much more willing passer; he didn't get hooplock like CJ does. More importantly, Dumars was a 6 time all-star, made 3 all-NBA teams, and was 1st team all-NBA defense 4 times and 2nd team once. He was elite on defense, and that was a great complement to Isiah Thomas (who was probably better than Dame defensively).

the Spurs duo comparison is even more loony. Those two Spurs guards only started 13 of the 50 regular season games, and none in the playoffs. The comparison goes down the crapper right there. Then there's the factor that the Spurs combo combined for a 35% usage rate, while Dame/CJ combine for 56% usage...of course, those Spurs guards were passing to Duncan, Robinson, and Elliot

and that's the big issue: Olshey has set the Blazers up so CJ is option 1b. CJ is only taking 0.7 fewer shots a game than Dame. That would be OK if CJ was elite in efficiency, but he's not. At best, he's barely average. And he's weak defensively as well as being undersized for a wing

and of course, CJ has the salary of option 1b. He has all-star salary but he has never sniffed an all-star game. And try to figure out how Portland could afford Nukic and Trent combining for 45-50M/year if Dame/CJ are combining for 80-85M. That's a real interesting puzzle. Something has to give

How is he not efficient? He’s a career 46% percent shooter from 2 and 40% from 3. Are u kidding me? And this is on tons I mean TONS of attempts. Man I feel so bad for CJ this fanbase is constantly hating on this dude. Not to mention CJ is always better in the playoffs than the regular season.

 

[James lamphear]

There a lot of youiyou down on Zach but remember he is the 5th option in the offense so what we get from him is gravey. You guys is comparing him to players that is big part of there offense and Zach not going be that guy. Defensely I think he was better his first 3 games of the season but that going through a whole training camp. But he has done some good job on D inside the bubble but just not quite there where he was in last year playoffs that's Zach we need but believe he will get there. The thing I am liken is rebounding is coming up he had 9 last game and 7 against Houston.

 

[wizenheimer]

How is he not efficient? He’s a career 46% percent shooter from 2 and 40% from 3. Are u kidding me? And this is on tons I mean TONS of attempts. Man I feel so bad for CJ this fanbase is constantly hating on this dude. Not to mention CJ is always better in the playoffs than the regular season.

I have a different view of efficiency than you because I think gauging players by raw shooting percentages is dumb

CJ's TS% this season is .544 and his career mark is .551, but that is skewed because he had a career year in 2016-17, 4 years ago.

The NBA average TS is around 55%. And if CJ was efficient you wouldn't see this team ranking in TS%:

Trevor Ariza .643
Hassan Whiteside .639
Rodney Hood .625
Damian Lillard .620
Skal Labissière .588
Gary Trent .587
Jusuf Nurkić .575
Zach Collins .555
CJ McCollum .544
Mario Hezonja .534
Carmelo Anthony .519

you also have eFG%:

Hassan Whiteside .620
Rodney Hood .608
Trevor Ariza .597
Gary Trent .571
Skal Labissière .561
Damian Lillard .556
Zach Collins .533
CJ McCollum .526

then there is points/shot:

Whiteside 1.47
Dame 1.45
Ariza 1.45
Hood 1.34
Trent 1.23
CJ 1.15

As a team, Portland scores 1.26 points/shot while CJ scores 1.15

that not efficient shooting; it's just volume shooting.

Like it or not, an important component of efficiency is converting from the FT line. CJ tends to shoot better FG percentages than Dame, but Dame crushes CJ in efficiency because he converts whistles to points. That has always been CJ's glaring weakness.

so far, in the bubble, CJ has taken 71 shots and made only 6 FT's on 8 FT's. That's a .112 FT Rate. By contrast, Dame has 82 shots and 35 FTA's. That's a .427 FT rate. And the FT rates for Portland this season:

Damian Lillard .380
Jusuf Nurkić .364
Hassan Whiteside .333
Trevor Ariza .296
Nassir Little .291
Mario Hezonja .281
Skal Labissière .224
Kent Bazemore .221
Carmelo Anthony .203
Zach Collins .174
Anfernee Simons .173
Anthony Tolliver .162
Rodney Hood .157
CJ McCollum .134
Gary Trent .109

all of this wouldn't matter much if CJ was a catch-n-shoot player (like Trent or Klay) who didn't dominate and stop the ball. That's actually they type of offense where CJ is efficient. But that's not the type of offense that CJ runs. He dribbles a ton while burning thru shot clock and possessions. He scores fewer points per shot than his team. The ability to 'create his own offense' is only a positive when he can do so at an efficient level....similar or close to Dame's level; but CJ just can't do it.

 

[andalusian]

all of this wouldn't matter much if CJ was a catch-n-shoot player (like Trent or Klay) who didn't dominate and stop the ball. That's actually they type of offense where CJ is efficient. But that's not the type of offense that CJ runs. He dribbles a ton while burning thru shot clock and possessions. He scores fewer points per shot than his team. The ability to 'create his own offense' is only a positive when he can do so at an efficient level....similar or close to Dame's level; but CJ just can't do it.

There is a lot of truth in what you say - but there are some mitigating factors. CJ is a release valve - often when the offense bogs down it comes to CJ trying to bail the Blazers out by creating offense by himself. This was especially true this year without Nurk which is really a fulcrum of the Blazer's offense. So, my opinion is that CJ's TS% is deceptive - a lot of it comes from the role CJ has to play in the offense.

 

[kjironman1]

I would recommend stocking up on whiskey then.

Gin if he likes the company of females.

 

[Shaboid]

Gin if he likes the company of females.

My girlfriend doesn't like gin, so I supply her with all the wine that is needed.

 

[wizenheimer]

There is a lot of truth in what you say - but there are some mitigating factors. CJ is a release valve - often when the offense bogs down it comes to CJ trying to bail the Blazers out by creating offense by himself. This was especially true this year without Nurk which is really a fulcrum of the Blazer's offense. So, my opinion is that CJ's TS% is deceptive - a lot of it comes from the role CJ has to play in the offense.

CJ is not any more of a release valve than Dame and Dame's TS% is a lot better than CJ's

here is a comparison between Blazers for the percentages of shots they take in the last 9 seconds of the shot clock vs TS%:

Dame .620 TS%:



CJ .544 TS%:



Hood .625 TS%:



Gary Trent .587 TS%:



those screens are from 82 games. Unfortunately, they use eFG% which is a poor gauge IMO because it doesn't account for FT's

In any event, CJ attempts a lower percentage of his shots in the last 9 seconds and at crunch time than those other 4 players. He has a much higher assisted FG rate than Dame, so again, if anybody is a 'go-find-your-own-shot' release valve it's Dame. I do not believe 'release valve' ia any better argument for CJ's game than create-his-own offense. They both seem to be arguments excusing weak efficiency

now, if you're arguing that CJ is misused in Portland's offense, I agree, and that has been my complaint all along. CJ has a 36% assisted FG rate and that number should be closer to 70% than under 40%. Simply, he's not nearly as good with the ball in his hands dribbling around as many believe.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

which is exactly what was said about Harkless for his first 2-3 years in Portland. "if-he-could-just-do-this-most-games" seemed like his middle name. Maybe Zach will step above the Harkless level he's in right now, but Zach will be 23 in three months. When Nurkic was 23 he was consistently posting double-doubles. Zach is a year older than Michael Porter Jr.; 2 years older than Jaren Jackson; and the same age as John Collins. So, the 'he's young' excuse is wearing thin

I think his defensive impact is being a little overrated as well. I'm seeing flashes of it, but no consistency. I think that's especially true when he switches onto perimeter players, mainly SF's. Zach is mobile, but he's going to get in trouble if he spends much time guarding guys like Lebron, Kawhi, PG13, and Doncic

Zach upside doesn't look nearly as good as Porter Jr or Jackson. Id put his upside above what Meyers or Harkless ever had. Meyers never had the tools to be a 2 way player.

You might be right that Zach never realizes much of his potential. The Blazers shouldn't give him a huge contract like they did with Meyers. But they shouldn't give up on his development early as they did with Will Barton and decades ago Jermaine.

In the next few weeks there is a role and opportunity for Zach. But hes on a short leash and against certain lineups he might get few minutes rightly so. Against other matchups or when he plays well as in last years playoffs the team should let him play.

 

[andalusian]

CJ is not any more of a release valve than Dame and Dame's TS% is a lot better than CJ's

I think we mostly agree, I did not argue that CJ is better than Dame because he is not. I am just saying that CJ's TS% are somewhat misleading - he is not as bad as his TS% indicates - this does not negate the fact that Dame is much better than him.

 

[wizenheimer]

I think we mostly agree, I did not argue that CJ is better than Dame because he is not. I am just saying that CJ's TS% are somewhat misleading - he is not as bad as his TS% indicates - this does not negate the fact that Dame is much better than him.

that's fair...since I'm a stathead I was just trying to gauge statistically what a release valve was. Might not have been a good way

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I agree

comparing Dame/CJ to either the Detroit Duo or the Spurs duo is just nuts. There only real comparison is they were all short guards (although Dumars had a great wingspan).

unlike CJ, Dumars could actually resemble a PG. He could run an offense and was a much more willing passer; he didn't get hooplock like CJ does. More importantly, Dumars was a 6 time all-star, made 3 all-NBA teams, and was 1st team all-NBA defense 4 times and 2nd team once. He was elite on defense, and that was a great complement to Isiah Thomas (who was probably better than Dame defensively).

the Spurs duo comparison is even more loony. Those two Spurs guards only started 13 of the 50 regular season games, and none in the playoffs. The comparison goes down the crapper right there. Then there's the factor that the Spurs combo combined for a 35% usage rate, while Dame/CJ combine for 56% usage...of course, those Spurs guards were passing to Duncan, Robinson, and Elliot

and that's the big issue: Olshey has set the Blazers up so CJ is option 1b. CJ is only taking 0.7 fewer shots a game than Dame. That would be OK if CJ was elite in efficiency, but he's not. At best, he's barely average. And he's weak defensively as well as being undersized for a wing

and of course, CJ has the salary of option 1b. He has all-star salary but he has never sniffed an all-star game. And try to figure out how Portland could afford Nukic and Trent combining for 45-50M/year if Dame/CJ are combining for 80-85M. That's a real interesting puzzle. Something has to give

I thinl that last point will have to be addressed.... but not before the 2021-22 season.

 

[blazerkor]

CJ is not any more of a release valve than Dame and Dame's TS% is a lot better than CJ's

here is a comparison between Blazers for the percentages of shots they take in the last 9 seconds of the shot clock vs TS%:

Dame .620 TS%:

View attachment 32850

CJ .544 TS%:

View attachment 32851

Hood .625 TS%:

View attachment 32852

Gary Trent .587 TS%:

View attachment 32853

those screens are from 82 games. Unfortunately, they use eFG% which is a poor gauge IMO because it doesn't account for FT's

In any event, CJ attempts a lower percentage of his shots in the last 9 seconds and at crunch time than those other 4 players. He has a much higher assisted FG rate than Dame, so again, if anybody is a 'go-find-your-own-shot' release valve it's Dame. I do not believe 'release valve' ia any better argument for CJ's game than create-his-own offense. They both seem to be arguments excusing weak efficiency

now, if you're arguing that CJ is misused in Portland's offense, I agree, and that has been my complaint all along. CJ has a 36% assisted FG rate and that number should be closer to 70% than under 40%. Simply, he's not nearly as good with the ball in his hands dribbling around as many believe.

I love all of your stats but I do think CJ is a really gifted scorer from all over the court, not just a spot up shooter. I think he could be a great third option scorer that does get his own shot at times or even a good second option scorer if your first option was a guy like Giannis or the Brow but CJ would need to be surrounded by elite defenders because he is a really poor defender. That's where you get into the problem area. Dame is one of the top 5 offensive threats in the game right now he needs a great defender with him on the perimeter and another plus defender, we can't win if he has a poor defender out there with him because Dame is a little above average as a defender. I think CJ could be a really valuable asset to a team that utilized him correctly on offense, could give him the help he needs on D and held him accountable on both. That's not this team.

 

[blazerkor]

This game has and always will be about making buckets and playing aggressive defense. Energy breeds energy. Too many people way overthink the game.

Yeah, length and athleticism have nothing to do with being an effective defender, it's all about aggression. When you look at elite defenders and defensive teams you see a lot more than just aggression, a lot more.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I have a different view of efficiency than you because I think gauging players by raw shooting percentages is dumb

CJ's TS% this season is .544 and his career mark is .551, but that is skewed because he had a career year in 2016-17, 4 years ago.

The NBA average TS is around 55%. And if CJ was efficient you wouldn't see this team ranking in TS%:

Trevor Ariza .643
Hassan Whiteside .639
Rodney Hood .625
Damian Lillard .620
Skal Labissière .588
Gary Trent .587
Jusuf Nurkić .575
Zach Collins .555
CJ McCollum .544
Mario Hezonja .534
Carmelo Anthony .519

you also have eFG%:

Hassan Whiteside .620
Rodney Hood .608
Trevor Ariza .597
Gary Trent .571
Skal Labissière .561
Damian Lillard .556
Zach Collins .533
CJ McCollum .526

then there is points/shot:

Whiteside 1.47
Dame 1.45
Ariza 1.45
Hood 1.34
Trent 1.23
CJ 1.15

As a team, Portland scores 1.26 points/shot while CJ scores 1.15

that not efficient shooting; it's just volume shooting.

Like it or not, an important component of efficiency is converting from the FT line. CJ tends to shoot better FG percentages than Dame, but Dame crushes CJ in efficiency because he converts whistles to points. That has always been CJ's glaring weakness.

so far, in the bubble, CJ has taken 71 shots and made only 6 FT's on 8 FT's. That's a .112 FT Rate. By contrast, Dame has 82 shots and 35 FTA's. That's a .427 FT rate. And the FT rates for Portland this season:

Damian Lillard .380
Jusuf Nurkić .364
Hassan Whiteside .333
Trevor Ariza .296
Nassir Little .291
Mario Hezonja .281
Skal Labissière .224
Kent Bazemore .221
Carmelo Anthony .203
Zach Collins .174
Anfernee Simons .173
Anthony Tolliver .162
Rodney Hood .157
CJ McCollum .134
Gary Trent .109

all of this wouldn't matter much if CJ was a catch-n-shoot player (like Trent or Klay) who didn't dominate and stop the ball. That's actually they type of offense where CJ is efficient. But that's not the type of offense that CJ runs. He dribbles a ton while burning thru shot clock and possessions. He scores fewer points per shot than his team. The ability to 'create his own offense' is only a positive when he can do so at an efficient level....similar or close to Dame's level; but CJ just can't do it.

Bravo! Add in his iffy defense and cross reference with his salary and he simply isn't the stud some people believe him to be.

 

[kjironman1]

Yeah, length and athleticism have nothing to do with being an effective defender, it's all about aggression. When you look at elite defenders and defensive teams you see a lot more than just aggression, a lot more.

Nobody said anything about Athleticism and length not playing a part. ----- Excuse me i have Hassan Whiteside on line one.

 

[blazerkor]

Nobody said anything about Athleticism and length not playing a part. ----- Excuse me i have Hassan Whiteside on line one.

OK, you need all three and I only see half of one out of CJ... CJ is a sometimer on effort and doesn't have the other two, dude could be a lot more intense on that end of the court... a lot. Don't get me wrong he still would probably not be a plus defender but it wouldn't hurt if he was our hardest working defender.

 

[CupWizier]

Zach upside doesn't look nearly as good as Porter Jr or Jackson. Id put his upside above what Meyers or Harkless ever had. Meyers never had the tools to be a 2 way player.

You might be right that Zach never realizes much of his potential. The Blazers shouldn't give him a huge contract like they did with Meyers. But they shouldn't give up on his development early as they did with Will Barton and decades ago Jermaine.

In the next few weeks there is a role and opportunity for Zach. But hes on a short leash and against certain lineups he might get few minutes rightly so. Against other matchups or when he plays well as in last years playoffs the team should let him play.

Porter was considered one of, if not the top prospect for his age group and only fell in the draft due to a serious back issue that kept him out for a season. He was a steal at 14. Jackson was also drafted top 4 so it really shouldn't be a surprise that they are both more refined.

 

[CupWizier]

Bravo! Add in his iffy defense and cross reference with his salary and he simply isn't the stud some people believe him to be.

Let me throw this is then. Add in his prolific ball handling, excellent ability to score and his compatibility with Lillard, he simply is a much bigger stud than people give him credit for, but then again, this is a GAME THREAD, not a bash McCollum thread as there are those threads that you guys should be responding in.

WHERE ARE THE MODS TO KEEP A THREAD ON TOPIC?

@SlyPokerDog , @Chris Craig or any other mod

 

[kjironman1]

Let me throw this is then. Add in his prolific ball handling, excellent ability to score and his compatibility with Lillard, he simply is a much bigger stud than people give him credit for, but then again, this is a GAME THREAD, not a bash McCollum thread as there are those threads that you guys should be responding in.

WHERE ARE THE MODS TO KEEP A THREAD ON TOPIC?

@SlyPokerDog , @Chris Craig or any other mod

Just to be fair. I kind of took this thread off the topic of the game. I poked the bear and a few have responded. However they have responded well and they have been very respectful so no harm no foul.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Comparing our backcourt to Thomas and Dumars of the Pistons.

Wheres that emoticon where I slap myself in the face?.....

 

[CupWizier]

Just to be fair. I kind of took this thread off the topic of the game. I poked the bear and a few have responded. However they have responded well and they have been very respectful so no harm no foul.

ok, mods BAN kjironman1 for derailing a thread.

 

[blazerkor]

Let me throw this is then. Add in his prolific ball handling, excellent ability to score and his compatibility with Lillard, he simply is a much bigger stud than people give him credit for, but then again, this is a GAME THREAD, not a bash McCollum thread as there are those threads that you guys should be responding in.

WHERE ARE THE MODS TO KEEP A THREAD ON TOPIC?

@SlyPokerDog , @Chris Craig or any other mod

Um... CJ played like shit on offense in this game and played his normal poor defense which brought up these opinions about why he isn't a good fit on this team. I think that's related enough for mods to not get involved. I've seen you posting and being just fine with a ton of different tangents, about things that didn't bother you, in game threads. You think CJ is great for the team, that's fine. It annoys you that a lot of us don't see it that way, that's fine too. Turning to the mods to stop people from having a relevant discussion about something that was represented in this game is really a little petty.

 

[CupWizier]

Um... CJ played like shit on offense in this game and played his normal poor defense which brought up these opinions about why he isn't a good fit on this team. I think that's related enough for mods to not get involved. I've seen you posting and being just fine with a ton of different tangents, about things that didn't bother you, in game threads. You think CJ is great for the team, that's fine. It annoys you that a lot of us don't see it that way, that's fine too. Turning to the mods to stop people from having a relevant discussion about something that was represented in this game is really a little petty.

lol, i was joking. Do you really think I was serious I wanted kjironman banned?

By the way, we won a huge game last night and all some of you can do is come up with complaints and McCollum has had a large part in the record we have had in Orlando.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I love all of your stats but I do think CJ is a really gifted scorer from all over the court, not just a spot up shooter. I think he could be a great third option scorer that does get his own shot at times or even a good second option scorer if your first option was a guy like Giannis or the Brow but CJ would need to be surrounded by elite defenders because he is a really poor defender. That's where you get into the problem area. Dame is one of the top 5 offensive threats in the game right now he needs a great defender with him on the perimeter and another plus defender, we can't win if he has a poor defender out there with him because Dame is a little above average as a defender. I think CJ could be a really valuable asset to a team that utilized him correctly on offense, could give him the help he needs on D and held him accountable on both. That's not this team.

I don't think CJ defense is that bad. Its not great but its much better than when he entered the league or what some players bring. Look around the league, offense is so potent every team is having trouble defending.

The problem without CJ is there is nobody to take pressure of traps off Lillard or allow a secondary creator. Right now they play Simons those minutes and its a big step down from CJ. Trent doesn't have the handle to do this. If they get a Nic Batum style SF that can sometimes initiate offense then maybe it could work.

So you need a borderline allstar level player who is a great defender but able to handle the ball, create his own shot, and shoot great from 3pt range, and be available for CJ. Thats an extremely difficult criteria to find.

Most likely I'd just role with the roster we have. The team has until the trade deadline of the 2021-22 season to need to cut salary for luxury tax concerns. Lets see how this roster plays next year before breaking up quality starters.