Bogus! We are quietly doing Philly's lame "process"

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Bingo Bango said:
And Adam Silver looks the other way while an NBA team that’s been in the league over 50 years intentionally loses games for the third year in a row. It’s disgusting. The only reason Blazer fans put up with it is because they’re desperate to become a “winner.” What a joke. The NBA is corrupt, and the Blazers are pathetic, and I refuse to support them any longer.
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Don’t come back when Scoot and Sharpe are stars.
 
KingSpeed said:
A .500 team with Dame would not have even made the play-in this year. Check the standings.
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That's not the case most seasons. And it's beside the point. A .500 team this season is one spot from the play in.

A team with Dame, a good coach, and legitimate starters at every position would be a play in team or better.
 
JFizzleRaider said:
To each their own, but....

Where we are at is way better than getting a shit seed in the playoffs to see us have zero chance at contending. Yes, we are losing. Yes, it may take some time. We have assets, young players growing...

I don't get the gloomyness. I was gloomy when we ran the Dame/CJ back court multiple years knowing it couldn't work as a contender.

Excited to see what the offseason brings.

Even when we had Roy and Aldridge we sucked for awhile and people were not gloomy like this.
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Not exactly. We won 30+ their rookie year, 41-41, the next year, and 54-28 the third. That’s not sucking for awhile.
 
wizenheimer said:
Portland wasn't close to competing with Dame because of years of idiot decisions by a stubborn ego-blind GM. The roster was a fucking mess, better suited for a 6'4 & under league than the NBA. More than that is the roster had way too much salary & usage invested in non-all-star role players: CJ-Powell-Nurkic-RoCo-Nance. Dame had about the best numbers in the 2021 playoffs: 34 & 10 on league leading efficiency, but that 5 man cadre of role-playing veterans couldn't do shit to support him

you asked why people were glooming about the Blazer future...well, one of the reasons I'm glooming is because I suspect that Cronin intends to build a bargain-bin-fence-straddling version of a big-3 in the treadmill trio of Ant-Grant-Ayton. That has play-in/late-lottery written all over it, the same as CJ-Powell-Nurkic-RoCo-Nance, only the Blazers won't have a top-10 player to bail them out

but there are other reasons why I'm glooming. The main one being I'm convinced the Blazers have a 'don't-care-much-about-winning-just-keep-the-cash-flowing' owner. That just about guarantees Murphy's Law will apply. Paul Allen had his faults (biggest was hiring and sticking with Olshey) but he was emotionally invested in the Blazers winning & competing. I don't believe Jody and the Vulcans are

I'm still hopeful about Sharpe & Scoot, but my expectations have tempered way down from a year ago. I question whether Sharpe has the needed alpha genes & durability. And Scoot has miles to go before he's even an average starting PG. Walker and Camara show plenty of signs of being decent role players, but the NBA is filled with those

Blazers have 4 draft picks in a draft that is widely panned as being terrible. That seems to be enough of a consensus that those picks likely have about as low value as a draft pick can have. Maybe the Blazers can hit a jackpot and find a hidden gem, but it probably means the best the Blazers can do is add another role-player or two, and they may be the typical '2-years-away-from-being-2-years-away' players. And, speaking of picks, the potential upside picks from the Dame trade are still 6 & 7 drafts away

you mentioned Cooper Flagg, from next year's draft. Yeah, that would be great. But again, where are the indications that Cronin intends to tank again next season? Having Blazer Broadcasting constantly extol Ant's talent and feature him as Portland's star; trading for Ayton & Timelord; signing Grant for 160M; matching the offer for Thybulle. Those are not the moves of a GM intending to stake out a high slot in future lotteries. They are the moves of a GM intending to buy a home in Purgatory.
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Wait it is 2024. The picks we got were 28 & 29 yes? That’s 4 and 5 years away, not 6 and 7. What am I missing?
 
Phatguysrule said:
That's not the case most seasons. And it's beside the point. A .500 team this season is one spot from the play in.

A team with Dame, a good coach, and legitimate starters at every position would be a play in team or better.
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A .500 teams is FIVE games out of the playoffs this year. Who cares if it’s one spot out? If we were .500 this year, we wouldn’t have been close. We tried for half the season last year and were .500 in games Dame played.
 
KingSpeed said:
Wait it is 2024. The picks we got were 28 & 29 yes? That’s 4 and 5 years away, not 6 and 7. What am I missing?
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we were both wrong. Both picks are in 2029. I said drafts, not years. So the picks are both 6 drafts from now. But do the math: the first season for the rookies will start in 2029

2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

5 seasons between now and when those rookies play their first minute. That's 410 games before they suit up. It will be 5.5 years from now before they score their first points as Blazers. And just how impactful can we realistically expect those rookies to be? Will they be good by their third seasons in 2031-32? That's 9 seasons away. How good will Sharpe be in his 3rd season? He provided 0.5 winshares this year, his 2nd season.
 
KingSpeed said:
and Grayson Allen who we needed from Bucks.
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I already addressed that. PHX didn't even know they were getting Allen when they agreed to the deal in principle. All we had to do was match salary, which could have been handled in nearly any move.

Nobody is suggesting we should have made no trades.
 
KingSpeed said:
A .500 teams is FIVE games out of the playoffs this year. Who cares if it’s one spot out? If we were .500 this year, we wouldn’t have been close. We tried for half the season last year and were .500 in games Dame played.
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With a shitty coach and a disaster of a roster. Nobody is suggesting that should have continued.
 
wizenheimer said:
buying Enron stock was a great deal, and just about everybody said so....until the company went bankrupt and investors lost their money. What's the best way to evaluate the value of Enron if you were one of those that lost their money? From initial expectations or from results? It's by hindsight of course. There are always justifications for making bad decisions when it's unknown what the outcome will be. But the only way to evaluate the quality of a decision is from the perspective of time
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If Enron was one of a thousand stocks you own then it doesn't matter as your other gains in the market dwarf that 0.1% loss. If you don't diversify then your an idiot that increases investment risk with zero gain in expected return.

I just don't see the point in zeroing in on one stock or one player and evaluating what actually happens years or decades later as a metric to evaluate the prior decision. That very distant result has nothing to do with the first process to make good buying or selling decisions at that time.

Yes buying and selling stocks, or trading NBA players involves a bunch of uncertainties and projections.

Now criticizing or evaluate the process to make the best decisions at the time of the decision, yes we can do that. What finally happens years or a decade later has so much variance, changes from subsequent good/bad decisions, and luck.

Over the coarse of hundreds or thousands of stock trades or NBA player transactions that luck evens out.

But for one single example the items that have variance such as the actual value ultimately gained from picks/swaps/etc become nearly independent events from the first decision to execute a trade.
 
Phatguysrule said:
I already addressed that. PHX didn't even know they were getting Allen when they agreed to the deal in principle. All we had to do was match salary, which could have been handled in nearly any move.

Nobody is suggesting we should have made no trades.
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Not true, they were told it was a starting level player with x and y metrics that they would like, and they suspected they would agree, assuming it was Allen or one other possible player.

It's not like we could've just dumped any salary in that spot and guaranteed they'd still do the trade.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
If Enron was one of a thousand stocks you own then it doesn't matter as your other gains in the market dwarf that 0.1% loss. If you don't diversify then your an idiot that increases investment risk with zero gain in expected return.

I just don't see the point in zeroing in on one stock or one player and evaluating what actually happens years or decades later as a metric to evaluate the prior decision. That very distant result has nothing to do with the first process to make good buying or selling decisions at that time.

Yes buying and selling stocks, or trading NBA players involves a bunch of uncertainties and projections.

Now criticizing or evaluate the process to make the best decisions at the time of the decision, yes we can do that. What finally happens years or a decade later has so much variance, changes from subsequent good/bad decisions, and luck.

Over the coarse of hundreds or thousands of stock trades or NBA player transactions that luck evens out.

But for one single example the items that have variance such as the actual value ultimately gained from picks/swaps/etc become nearly independent events from the first decision to execute a trade.
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my point is that the only way to truly gauge any decision is by hindsight

and by the way...Blazers did NOT get a haul for Dame...:cool2:
 
wizenheimer said:
please point out the links saying the Suns wouldn't have made the trade without Allen
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Not so much that they "wouldn't have made the trade without Allen," but that the Suns tentatively agreed to the trade with the understanding that a guard making about that much would also be included.

https://burncitysports.com/2023/09/...fter-learning-they-would-receive-this-player/

Brendan Mau said:
“Cronin kept telling Bartelstein: Just trust me. You’re going to like the mystery player. Trust me.”

The Suns narrowed down the mystery player to either be Grayson Allen from the Bucks or Victor Oladipo from the Thunder because Cronin told them the salary and position of the player.

Cronin told Bartelstein Wednesday afternoon that the mystery player was Allen.

“After the Suns confirmed it was Allen, Bartelstein, Jones and Ishbia briefly huddled and returned a resounding yes to Cronin. Done, Bartelstein told him. And that was that.”
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Seems reasonable to conclude that if they hadn't procured and included a guard of Allen's caliber, the Suns would not have been on board.
 
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wizenheimer said:
my point is that the only way to truly gauge any decision is by hindsight

and by the way...Blazers did NOT get a haul for Dame...:cool2:
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Well enjoy waiting then. I guess that'll be after the picks have hit their prime so in what 2040? Now if the Blazers trade one of the 2029 picks or a swap for a later pick that may not be until 2050+.

Then we can finally accurately give Cronin a final grade for the Dame trade. Jody will be 102, Cronin will be 13 years into his pension, and AI will probably control us but we'll finally be able to all know what happened.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Financially how do you make the trade without Allen?
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yeah, I noted that

edit:

Nurkic + Little + Keon = 16.875M + 6.25M + 2.8M = 25.933M

25.933M X 1.25 = 32.416M

32.416M +250K = 32.67M

Ayton's salary is 32.46M.

Looks like the trade works...what am I doing wrong?
 
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PtldPlatypus said:
Extra salary, and a player with whom the Suns were going to be satisfied.
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ok...reading the article it implied the Suns would have settled for Oladipo as the mystery guard and salary filler. They had already known the offer was Nurkic, Little, and Johnson. When they found out it was Allen they were much happier than if they would have received Oladipo...who didn't play this season by the way.

everything I've read indicates that Ayton really wanted out of Phoenix; and Phoenix really wanted to rid themselves of Ayton, and his salary. They were very "intrigued" by paying a starting C half the price of Ayton

so it would seem pretty honest to set the Nurkic + Little + Keon for Ayton swap separate from the Dame trade. And by the way:

Nurkic 16.875M
Little 6.25M
Keon 2.8M

25.93M...........25.93 X 1.25 = 32.41M + 250K = 32.67M --> Ayton 32.46M; so, at a glance it looks like that trade did not require any more salary
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to compromise with the 'it was a haul' crowd, I'd accept that Allen may have added the leverage necessary to get Camara. But I think the Nurkic for Ayton swap would have happened with or without the Dame trade
 
Bingo Bango said:
The fact that you think getting Henderson and Sharpe justifies intentionally throwing games makes my point. I rest my case.
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Don’t come back. You can’t enjoy the fruits of losing if you’re going to bitch about it.
 
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