We got the #3 pick. Discuss the possibilities. (1 Viewer)

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What are you hoping for with this pick?


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16 Trade ideas, first with Blazers sending out the #3rd pick, then no lottery picks, finally acquiring a lottery pick. If players are on expiring contracts I’m assuming Dame would basically have assurance the player would resign in Portland;
  1. #3 and Ant for Jalen Brown? Seems like a no brainer from the Blazers end, Boston ECF success and Brown supermax eligibility have probably made this less likely
  2. #3 and Ant for Mikal Bridges? Again a no brainer from the Blazers end
  3. #3, Ant, filler, and 3 future picks for Mikal Bridges and Claxton? Probably rare single move that could have Blazers close to contention. Unsure if Nets would entertain this type of rebuild since Houston owns their picks.
  4. #3 and Ant for Pascal Siakam? Problem here is Siakam isn’t a good defending duo with Grant and a bit older than the other younger allstars above.
  5. #3 and Nurk for OG Anunoby? An overpay from the Blazers end
  6. #3, Ant, Nurk, and 2 future picks for both Siakam and Anunoby? Legit brings in veteran talent for the Blazers, but a Sharpe/OG/Grant/Siakam rotation is probably too crowded.
  7. #3, Ant, Sharpe, Nurk, for Embiid? The MVP is very likely unavailable, also injury risk on the Blazers end.
  8. #3, Ant, Sharpe, Nurk, 4 future unprotected first for Giannis? Also very unlikely he is available, perhaps if some unexpected event such as Middleton leaving in free agency first happens.
  9. #3, Ant, and Nurk for Paul George? Large overpay IMO from the Blazers end – remove #3 and I’d probably do it. Too old with too many health concerns to include the pick
  10. #3, Ant, and Nurk for Towns? Again an overpay and I’d do it without #3, just too many question if he can be a star of a winning team.
  11. No lottery picks involved - Nurk, future first round pick, and filler for DeRozen? I’d probably do it and sign vet minimum bigs
  12. No lottery picks involved - Nurk, filler for Ayton? I’d probably do it if Jody will go into the tax, if no then I skip it
  13. Acquire #1 Pick – Dame and #3 for #1? Likely would need a 3rd team to send young assets to the Spurs. Probably no chance the Spurs are interested, unless they are very high on Scoot/Miller or for some reason low on Wemby. Gives the Blazers Ant, Sharpe, Wemby trio to build for the future. Its crazy to think that Dame is likely worth less than those two spots the Blazers almost moved up to.
  14. Acquire #2 Pick – Dame straight up or more likely in a trade with a 3rd team? Blazers could then full on rebuild with a core of; Scoot Henderson, Ant, Sharpe, and Brandon Miller. Likely the team explores trades for Nurk, sign and trades for Grant, or just signs Grant with mutual agreement to eventually explore trades
  15. Acquire #4 Pick – Similar to #2, trade Dame to Houston for salary filler and pick #4? Would have a young core such as; Ant, Sharpe, Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller
  16. Acquire pick #5 -#10 – If the Blazers don’t like Scoot/Miller and target someone else, possibly trade down and pickup a veteran asset?
 
If Portland tries to build a title-contending team around Lillard, I see only bad things happening for everyone. Lillard won’t get his title, and Portland will squander some good young players trying to make it happen. Trying to get Lillard a title is the sentimental choice—trading him to rebuild the team is the smart choice.
 
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That's a good point.
There's no reason the Blazers have to be constricted by mock drafts. They have the 3rd pick. They should draft the player that they think will have the biggest impact as a Trail Blazer. Like Walker Kessler, the right player might make an immediate impact.

I think the more likely scenario would be the Blazers playing Kevin Pritchard, say trading down a few spots if Miller goes at 2, then drafting Hendricks and having some extra assets to play with in the deal.

A lot of teams are going to want Scoot. The Blazers might have had the second-best scenario happen for them in this draft (admittedly, a big drop from picking first and Wembanyama) -- Scoot is the second-best prospect in this draft, no question in my mind, but Miller should be an all-star pretty quickly and the team picking in front of us already has a PG, just like us. Charlotte's either drafting Miller or trading to someone that really wants Scoot.
 
16 Trade ideas, first with Blazers sending out the #3rd pick, then no lottery picks, finally acquiring a lottery pick. If players are on expiring contracts I’m assuming Dame would basically have assurance the player would resign in Portland;
  1. #3 and Ant for Jalen Brown? Seems like a no brainer from the Blazers end, Boston ECF success and Brown supermax eligibility have probably made this less likely
  2. #3 and Ant for Mikal Bridges? Again a no brainer from the Blazers end
  3. #3, Ant, filler, and 3 future picks for Mikal Bridges and Claxton? Probably rare single move that could have Blazers close to contention. Unsure if Nets would entertain this type of rebuild since Houston owns their picks.
  4. #3 and Ant for Pascal Siakam? Problem here is Siakam isn’t a good defending duo with Grant and a bit older than the other younger allstars above.
  5. #3 and Nurk for OG Anunoby? An overpay from the Blazers end
  6. #3, Ant, Nurk, and 2 future picks for both Siakam and Anunoby? Legit brings in veteran talent for the Blazers, but a Sharpe/OG/Grant/Siakam rotation is probably too crowded.
  7. #3, Ant, Sharpe, Nurk, for Embiid? The MVP is very likely unavailable, also injury risk on the Blazers end.
  8. #3, Ant, Sharpe, Nurk, 4 future unprotected first for Giannis? Also very unlikely he is available, perhaps if some unexpected event such as Middleton leaving in free agency first happens.
  9. #3, Ant, and Nurk for Paul George? Large overpay IMO from the Blazers end – remove #3 and I’d probably do it. Too old with too many health concerns to include the pick
  10. #3, Ant, and Nurk for Towns? Again an overpay and I’d do it without #3, just too many question if he can be a star of a winning team.
  11. No lottery picks involved - Nurk, future first round pick, and filler for DeRozen? I’d probably do it and sign vet minimum bigs
  12. No lottery picks involved - Nurk, filler for Ayton? I’d probably do it if Jody will go into the tax, if no then I skip it
  13. Acquire #1 Pick – Dame and #3 for #1? Likely would need a 3rd team to send young assets to the Spurs. Probably no chance the Spurs are interested, unless they are very high on Scoot/Miller or for some reason low on Wemby. Gives the Blazers Ant, Sharpe, Wemby trio to build for the future. Its crazy to think that Dame is likely worth less than those two spots the Blazers almost moved up to.
  14. Acquire #2 Pick – Dame straight up or more likely in a trade with a 3rd team? Blazers could then full on rebuild with a core of; Scoot Henderson, Ant, Sharpe, and Brandon Miller. Likely the team explores trades for Nurk, sign and trades for Grant, or just signs Grant with mutual agreement to eventually explore trades
  15. Acquire #4 Pick – Similar to #2, trade Dame to Houston for salary filler and pick #4? Would have a young core such as; Ant, Sharpe, Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller
  16. Acquire pick #5 -#10 – If the Blazers don’t like Scoot/Miller and target someone else, possibly trade down and pickup a veteran asset?
I kinda like #14.
 
Bridges / Claxton for #3 / Simons / Filler is the only trade I’m interested in. And I’m pretty sure the Nets aren’t.

this also assumes Brandon Miller is gone.
Nets want a splash to start a new horizon. Scoot is gonna be their guy. Book It Danno.
 
I think the more likely scenario would be the Blazers playing Kevin Pritchard, say trading down a few spots if Miller goes at 2, then drafting Hendricks and having some extra assets to play with in the deal.

I'm not sure what you mean by "playing Kevin Pritchard". He moved up from #4 to #2 to get Aldridge, and flipped Telfair in two trades that became Roy.

Trading down from the #3 slot is "playing John Nash".
 
Agreed. Time to whip out the big numbers -

View attachment 55863

The number 3 pick historically has resulted in a starter (defined as started over half of their career games) 85.7% of the time. It has resulted in an all-star 57.1% of the time.

I'm not giving this pick up easily. But if the Blazers can net an all-star in the trade, you gotta make that happen.
Thanks for doing this by the way
 
Give an example trade in which the Blazers get an All Star in return.

Hypothetical trades aren't my strong suit and I'm not going to whip out the trade machine, but I believe #3 + Ant (or other salary fillers) could possibly net you guys like Siakam, Bridges (projected all-star), Bam and it would take a lot less to get guys like KAT, Markkanen, Randle, Sabonis.

Obviously not all these guys would be available and not every one of these would be a slam dunk winner of a trade (Randle for example), but I do think that's what the expectation of Cronin should be to get in return. #3 + filler for OG or a nice Jerami Grant-like role player, would not be good enough.
 
Agreed. Time to whip out the big numbers -

View attachment 55863

The number 3 pick historically has resulted in a starter (defined as started over half of their career games) 85.7% of the time. It has resulted in an all-star 57.1% of the time.

I'm not giving this pick up easily. But if the Blazers can net an all-star in the trade, you gotta make that happen.

Thank you for the data, I was close. Interesting that the chart shows the #3 pick has been more productive than the #2 pick, as well as some other outliers.

Also agree with you that Cronin can't just trade the pick for the best vet available. He's got to get value or else I believe he should keep the pick.
 
I keep eyeing Toronto at 13. That looks like a team primed to want to move up.

And they have the wing pieces we desperately want.
 
Would Scoot be a poor man’s Westbrook? I’m hesitant that he would be the right choice.

Scoot is a better defender, not a head-case, and even though he doesn't shoot well, is still a better outside shooter than Westbrook as well. Both explosive scorers, and both can pass although not what I would consider 'natural' distributors.
 
Would Scoot be a poor man’s Westbrook? I’m hesitant that he would be the right choice.
He's a great prospect but I don't see him as a can't miss superstar. Russ was an MVP, I dunno if Scoot has that ceiling.

Thinking of this in another way, if Shaedon were in this draft, and we know what we know about him, I think he would go 2 .
 
The "Michael Jordan" in this draft is going #1

Well maybe, or maybe not. Maybe he gets injured and never succeds. Amen Thompson has crazy high upside. Giannis was a multiple time MVP and drafted at pick #15, while Jokic was 41st.

Wemba might be a better prospect than any of these, above LeBron, possibly even the best prospect in the history of team sports. #3 is more often than not an allstar, has had many hall of famers, and yes including the best player of all time though.
 
He's a great prospect but I don't see him as a can't miss superstar. Russ was an MVP, I dunno if Scoot has that ceiling.

Thinking of this in another way, if Shaedon were in this draft, and we know what we know about him, I think he would go 2 .

The trick is we have seen Shaedon play well at the NBA level, but we would never know that for a player in the draft.

Maybe the better comparison is what draft pick this year would most GM's trade Shaedon for vs keep him? Everyone would trade Sharp for #1. I'd think most would keep him vs dealing him out for pick #2, but that's just my guess. I wonder what Hornets fans think.
 
Thoughts on this 3 team trade:
Blazers get mikel bridges
Houston gets the 3rd pick, nurk and keon.
Brooklyn gets the 4 pick, and the 2024 pick back from the houston.
 
trade the 3rd pick ...work a deal to get Pascal for the 3rd pick plus role players or to get Bridges from the Nets. If you need to move Nurk and Keon to Brooklyn plus the 3rd pick you could get Bridges in a heartbeat I'll bet.
 

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