We got the #3 pick. Discuss the possibilities. (6 Viewers)

[Labinot41]

Agree, the draft starts with Charlotte. Portland is in a comfortable Position to sit back

 

[tykendo]

The Blazers are in the best position they've been in , to add real difference makers , for the 1st time in a long while. It's an exciting time. Blazers hold the cards, not the other way around. Let the workouts, and the buzz begin. I'm just going to enjoy watching the value of the 3rd pick increase over the next month.

 

[tykendo]

Agree, the draft starts with Charlotte. Portland is in a comfortable Position to sit back

It is. The Hornets have to decide who they really want more. Or trade it. The Blazers have one of those two coveted picks landing in their lap after. Then the bidding really starts.

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think they would "blow it up" for him. However, if I'm Charlotte I offer the Blazers the 2nd pick for the 3rd + a player (let's say Little) + a future pick.

If the Blazers think that Scoot has star potential, and they end up taking him at 3, I don't see how they're going to spin that with Dame. At that point you blow it up.

I think Dame could be sold on Miller. Obviously other moves would need to be made as well, but I think Miller could contribute right away.

 

[Tince]

It doesn't, you just need to be willing to go into the tax, which the Blazers have so far not shown any inclination of doing.

You're saying being in the tax doesn't have an impact on exceptions a team has? I do not believe that to be true.

 

[B-Roy]

You're saying being in the tax doesn't have an impact on exceptions a team has? I do not believe that to be true.

You know that’s not what I’m saying.

 

[wizenheimer]

Looking back at the moves that have bene made, I'm the most perturbed by the Josh Hart trade.

According to Fischer, his next contract is going "approach" 18M a year, which means it's only going to start at ~4M more than he was being paid this year. Does anybody not think Josh Hart is worth 18M a year? And yeah he'd probably end up being a bench player but he's going to be a bench player in New York too! Is Josh Hart at 18M a year going to help your team more than whatever the 23rd pick ends up being? Hell yes. And to top it off, reportedly the Blazers never even asked for Hartenstein because they didn't want to take on any salary for next year. They also passed on James Wiseman when they had the chance. So now we don't even have enough tradable contracts to attach to the 23rd pick if we were to move it for another rotation level player.

pretty solid indicators that Hart didn't want to re-sign in Portland; his wife especially didn't want to be 'here'

Wiseman? with more than 12M guaranteed? Tough to see the Vulcans approving that on spec., and the Warriors sure didn't want him around. I think it's probably the case that the 8.3M TPE has more value as a trade piece than Wiseman. With Ant-Nurk-Little-Knox-Keon the Blazers could have 53M in tradable contracts which could yield as much a 66M in return. That sure seems like it would be enough. Ant+3 going out would still leave 29M in tradable contracts which would yield as much as 36M return. I don't think Wiseman's salary would make much difference in options

 

[Tince]

You know that’s not what I’m saying.

I don't.

I said resigning Hart would prevent them from having the same exceptions and draft picks they'll need to fill out their bench. You responded saying "It doesn't, you just need to be willing to go into the tax."

That is why I followed up.

 

[blazerfan11]

If the Blazers think that Scoot has star potential, and they end up taking him at 3, I don't see how they're going to spin that with Dame. At that point you blow it up.

I think Dame could be sold on Miller. Obviously other moves would need to be made as well, but I think Miller could contribute right away.

The way you spin it is that Scoot is ready to impact winning right away.
Scoot isn’t 2 years in the future. He’s ready to go.
The biggest weakness of the Trail Blazers last season was the bench.
If the bench is fixed in a big way, the Blazers are making the playoffs.
Adding a dynamic, high-level-passing, full-court point guard is a great way to improve the bench.
All the guys on the bench are full-court players.
If Cronin can add some good pieces to the bench, with Scoot and Sharpe, the Blazers could have one of the better benches in the NBA.

 

[santeesioux]

 

[Phatguysrule]

Well, too bad Indiana has been assholes to us. They can pound sand unless they give us a no-brainer of a deal.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Well, too bad Indiana has been assholes to us. They can pound sand unless they give us a no-brainer of a deal.

Turner/Mathurin/7 for Nurk/3?

 

[theprunetang]

Well, too bad Indiana has been assholes to us. They can pound sand unless they give us a no-brainer of a deal.

I honestly don't see anyone on their roster worth moving the 3rd pick for, aside from Haliburton, whom they wouldn't trade. Mathurin and Turner would be fantastic here, but not for the 3rd pick. KP can Pritchslap himself in the balls.

 

[BassPlaya]

KP can Pritchslap himself in the balls.

 

[RR7]

Don't think you'd get Mathurin in the deal. Nurk and 3 for Turner and 7. 7 and Simons for Pascal?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Don't think you'd get Mathurin in the deal. Nurk and 3 for Turner and 7. 7 and Simons for Pascal?

I agree that Indy probably wouldn't do it, but that would be my price.

 

[RR7]

Nurk, Simons, 3 for Harris, Turner, OG, and 7. 7 could still be moved, or, better yet, you keep it to add another young piece to pair with Sharpe. Jarace Walker?

 

[TBpup]

Turner/Mathurin/7 for Nurk/3?

If I KNEW I could get Hendricks at #7 (which seems as long shot as he keeps moving up), I'd have to give that serious consideration. Maybe Ausar.....who some people think might be the better twin. Better shooter, better defender and 2-time MVP. His assist numbers are basically the same as Amen's.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Let’s Pritch-Slap them!

 

[BankTeller]

This is interesting. I’m personally not high on Brandon, but #3 to IND could be an interesting possibility in a trade down scenario if Brandon is available. HOU, DET, and ORL are likely to want to trade up if Scoot is available.

I would be interested in #3 for #7, #26, and #29, only official if Ausar is available at #7. That would give us three 1sts in the 20’s to move up in the draft or trade with the TPEs for a player. One would probably go to CHI. I’m high on Ausar, but any one of he, Whitmore, Walker, or Hendricks could fall to #7.

 

[BankTeller]

If I KNEW I could get Hendricks at #7 (which seems as long shot as he keeps moving up), I'd have to give that serious consideration. Maybe Ausar.....who some people think might be the better twin. Better shooter, better defender and 2-time MVP. His assist numbers are basically the same as Amen's.

There’s no way IND considers that. I already have a hard time believing they’d be willing to give up Mathurin and maybe Ausar or Hendricks because they love Miller that much. IND just extended Turner—if they haven’t traded him all this time, they’re not doing it for Nurk.

 

[wizenheimer]

This is interesting. I’m personally not high on Brandon, but #3 to IND could be an interesting possibility in a trade down scenario if Brandon is available. HOU, DET, and ORL are likely to want to trade up if Scoot is available.

I would be interested in #3 for #7, #26, and #29, only official if Ausar is available at #7. That would give us three 1sts in the 20’s to move up in the draft or trade with the TPEs for a player. One would probably go to CHI. I’m high on Ausar, but any one of he, Whitmore, Walker, or Hendricks could fall to #7.

IMO, generically the drop from 3 to 7 is worth more than a couple of very late 1st's. Quite a bit more in my view

I think I'd want at least 7 + 26 + a future 1st that has diminishing protections over 3 years and coneys as unprotected in the 3rd year. And a couple of 2nd's. That the generic version

if this is truly a 3 person draft, then no, not good enough. I'd rather have 6 + 11 from Orlando, and even then, that's a little light, IMO

 

[BankTeller]

Don't think you'd get Mathurin in the deal. Nurk and 3 for Turner and 7. 7 and Simons for Pascal?

So you’re going to pay Turner his 21m, Grant his sub 30m, Pascal his 35m, and Dame whatever his number is? That’s over 100m in our starting lineup.

We’re already small and Turner averages 7.5rpg. Your starting PF/C can’t combine for 12rpg. Turner isn’t a massive upgrade, if at all, to Nurk. Trading down to #7 as well? I’m good.

If Miller falls to us and the guy the FO wants falls to #7, just give me that guy and #26 + #29.

#26 should go to CHI to unprotect the pick. But at #23 and #29, they need to draft a Leonard Miller or Dereck Lively.

 

[Natebishop3]

Passing on Miller would be a mistake. I have been watching some film of him and he has a pretty quick release. He gets the shot off quick on the move. I think he's going to be a good shooter in the NBA.

 

[BankTeller]

IMO, generically the drop from 3 to 7 is worth more than a couple of very late 1st's. Quite a bit more in my view

I think I'd want at least 7 + 26 + a future 1st that has diminishing protections over 3 years and coneys as unprotected in the 3rd year. And a couple of 2nd's. That the generic version

if this is truly a 3 person draft, then no, not good enough. I'd rather have 6 + 11 from Orlando, and even then, that's a little light, IMO

You could be right. I’m no good at evaluating the value of draft picks.

I would also ask for Jalen Smith to us for part of the GPII TPE. He’s still young and fills a void at the backup C spot. Smith is a quality defender that rebounds well. Nearly 2 oreb/gm in less than 20mpg is impressive.

 

[KingSpeed]

Nurk, Simons, 3 for Harris, Turner, OG, and 7. 7 could still be moved, or, better yet, you keep it to add another young piece to pair with Sharpe. Jarace Walker?


View attachment 55980

I like that deal. Blazers need multiple good players to climb the standings. Look at how deep Boston and Denver are.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Passing on Miller would be a mistake. I have been watching some film of him and he has a pretty quick release. He gets the shot off quick on the move. I think he's going to be a good shooter in the NBA.

I think the question is, how good can he be? Can he create his own shot off the dribble? Can he attack the rim? Get to the free throw line? I haven't done a deep dig on him, but he seems more Michael Porter Jr. than Paul George. A good player, but if you're drafting at #3 you want great.

I trust our scouts and will be excited for anyone they decide to go with at #3 or wherever.

 

[KingSpeed]

This from Reddit:


r/RipCity Consensus Offseason Big Picture Plan
A lot has been made over the difference of opinion this sub has on how to approach this offseason, but I think there is a misconception about the first domino. For MOST people here, it's really not as simple as trade Dame or trade the pick or whatever since it depends on what is available and what opportunities actually present themselves. Perhaps this presentation of much of the same debate could frame it in a way where we all more or less agree.

Plan A:
What is the threshold for player caliber where it's worthwhile for us to trade the #3 pick and what actual players are in the list?

Note: When I say trade the #3 pick for player x here in plan A, I realize that for most of these players it will require the #3 plus Ant and/or other things. But this calculus is simply for including the #3 pick in a trade for one of these players. It's my belief that if Plan C below does not occur, we need to move Ant for a frontcourt player either way.

Step 1:

For me this needs to be an All-NBA player, particularly one that doesn't have an asterisk by their name (because of better players being injured or otherwise not qualified).

Certainties: Giannis, Luka, Embiid, SGA, Tatum, Butler, Curry, Jokic, LeBron, Booker, Kawhi, Harden, Anthony Davis, Durant

Marginal : Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Fox, Randle, Morant, DeRozen, Siakim, Towns, Trae Young, Beal, Paul George, Kyrie, Gobert, Chris Paul, Sabonis

Let's not quibble too much about this part of the list. It's only purpose is to create part of the intitial list. Did I miss anyone?

Step 2:

Now we need to add in players who might jump INTO the list because they are young and perhaps still improving. Personally, this has a strong motivation for me because I am MOST interested in players that could meaningfully bridge both Dame and Sharpe's timelines. Tatum is probably the best example at 25 years old, but he's not available.

The list:

Mikal Bridges, Lauri Markkanen, Anthony Edwards, Zion, Brandon Ingram, Jaren Jackson Jr,

Marginals:

Ayton, ???

Did I miss anyone?

Step 3:

Then we should subtract the players that don't make sense positionally, or are clearly not available, or maybe we just don't want (Julius Randle):

Not available: Luka, Curry, SGA, Jokic, Sabonis, Booker, Fox, Tatum, Anthony Edwards, Jaren Jackson Jr, Durant

Positional incompatibility/Don't want: Mitchell, Fox, Randle, Morant, Trae Young, Beal, Kyrie, Gobert, Chris Paul, Harden

Step 4: Tiers

Remaining Players where IF they become available we should CLEARLY trade the #3 pick for:

Giannis, Embiid (Giannis is probably not available, but there have been some faint rumblings)

Remaining Players we PROBABLY/MAYBE should trade the #3 pick for:

Butler, LeBron, Kawhi, Brown, Paul George, Anthony Davis, Mikal Bridges, Zion

Remaining Players we should argue about trading the #3 pick for:

KAT, DeRozen, Siakim, Markkanen, Brandon Ingram, Ayton



For me, realistically that leaves 10 players that might be available that move the needle enough that I think it's worth throwing all our chips in for them, with 6 more that might be good enough to make it worth it. Once you get into the murky waters of the Siakims and Markkanens you have to question whether or not it would really be enough (with a couple of other smaller moves) to push into any kind of real contention. The danger of giving up the pick and Ant only to become mediocre seems obvious and has been well hashed out. We SHOULD NOT trade our pick for anyone lesser than those on this list. Do we agree on that?

Perhaps at this point we agree. Maybe we disagree on which of these players could actually become available, but hopefully we mostly agree that if they are available, and we COULD obtain them using the #3 and a reasonable amount of other assets based on the actual player, that we should. So if that happens, we are basically done. We can move onto smaller trades and free agent signings to fill out roster deficiencies.

Plan B
But what if none of those guys become available OR other teams win the bid for them?

Now what? My personal preference is to keep the pick, try and trade Ant/Nurk (even Grant in a sign and trade if necessary given his weaknesses at the 4) and future picks, other young guys. However, from talking to a connection inside the team, Dame has evidently made it clear that he will ask out if Plan A above does not work out. Plan C is based on this intel being accurate. Plan B then becomes try and change his mind. I convince him to attend a workout with Scoot/Brandon Miller and see if I can get him hyped enough to be a little more patient with this process. What could this team do by adding Miller, trading Ant and Nurk for Jonathon Isaac and Wendell Carter Jr or ??? and signing Brook Lopez?

Plan C
Plan C then becomes the bad news. We couldn't hit on a trade, we couldn't convince Dame to give it another year with some incremental improvements and a high ceiling pick, so Dame asks out and we look for a trading partner. In my mind, the list of attractive young players looks even more interesting. You could also add Darius Garland, Bam, Scottie Barnes. Would MIN trade Anthony Edwards for Dame? Could we get Lauri + Kessler for Dame and Nurk?

Can we move past the trade Dame vs trade the pick camps and agree on Plan A/B/C?

 

[Natebishop3]

I think the question is, how good can he be? Can he create his own shot off the dribble? Can he attack the rim? Get to the free throw line? I haven't done a deep dig on him, but he seems more Michael Porter Jr. than Paul George. A good player, but if you're drafting at #3 you want great.

I trust our scouts and will be excited for anyone they decide to go with at #3 or wherever.

How good can he be? Hard to say. I'm not seeing a clear 100% star outside of Wemby... and even that dude has doubts because of the potential for injuries.

Can he create his own shot off the dribble? Yes.

Can he attack the rim? I don't see why not. He's 6'9 and he's athletic.

Get to the free throw line? That depends on the refs, no?

MPJ is a pretty good player. I think Miller will be a better defender and a better passer.

 

[Natebishop3]