OFFICIAL AROUND THE NBA: JANUARY 2025

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Things that also matter:

For example, they have more experience than the core Blazers do (Shaedon, Scoot, DC and Ant) or are older or in some cases, just flat out better (Grant is a role player who they act like he's a star).

Shaedon, for example, is 2 years younger than Williams, just about 5 years younger than SGA and 4 years younger than Dort.

That amount of experience matters too. SGA having 4 years and 280 more games under his belt (243 more NBA games, and 37 college games) by the same age, Williams had 230 more games experience (counting college), that makes a HUGE difference.

When Jalen was Shaedons age, he was rookie averaging 14 ppg after 3 years in college (which makes a difference...see: Scoot and how detrimental his route was to his growth).

When SGA was Shaedons age, he was was averaging similar #'s as Shaedon (after a full year of college ball).

When Dort was Shaedons age, 14 ppg and a year of college.

Also, more importantly, their younger players have had more experience than Shaedon, Scoot and DC, and in the case of SGA, were drafted higher and had a higher ceiling than Simons (who was drafted the same year as SGA, and is oddly enough a year younger than SGA).

Take out Jerami (for the love of god, please take out Jerami) and the average age and experience on this team drops a bit. If you go on rotation players (so no Duop, Walker, Rupes and 2-ways) their total is 258ish for 11 players.

RW3 27, DA 26, Simons, 25, DBHooper 25, Tou 24, DAvdija 24, Murray 24, Sharpe 21, Scoot 20, DC 20, Rupes 20.

And even that's misleading, because RW3 barely plays. Take him out, and they're at 231 for 10 players.

all of that is probably accurate, but still, over the last 4 seasons

OKC: 24 wins-->40 wins-->57 wins-->68 wins (projected)
Port: 27 wins-->33 wins-->21 wins-->30 wins (projected)

pretty big difference in trajectory

I'm also not a big fan of strictly comparing age vs age of players. As you mentioned, experience is a factor. Sharpe is in his 3rd season. When SGA was in his 3rd season, he averaged 24 pts, 5 reb, 6 ast with a PER of 21.6 (Sharpe 14.7) and a .623 TS% (Sharpe .555). SGA was less than a year older then, than Sharpe is now

Sharpe vs SGA is probably an unfair gauge. SGA was 1st team All-NBA at 24. Unlikely Sharpe gets to that level in 2-3 years

Sharpe vs Jalen Williams seems more appropriate. Then we get into their pre-NBA experience and how big an advantage that gives Williams. But one thing about that that advantage is since both players are playing NBA games now, and Williams is getting playoff experience, Sharpe mat not ever overcome that pre-NBA advantage Williams has
 
Things that also matter:

For example, they have more experience than the core Blazers do (Shaedon, Scoot, DC and Ant) or are older or in some cases, just flat out better (Grant is a role player who they act like he's a star).

Shaedon, for example, is 2 years younger than Williams, just about 5 years younger than SGA and 4 years younger than Dort.

That amount of experience matters too. SGA having 4 years and 280 more games under his belt (243 more NBA games, and 37 college games) by the same age, Williams had 230 more games experience (counting college), that makes a HUGE difference.

When Jalen was Shaedons age, he was rookie averaging 14 ppg after 3 years in college (which makes a difference...see: Scoot and how detrimental his route was to his growth).

When SGA was Shaedons age, he was was averaging similar #'s as Shaedon (after a full year of college ball).

When Dort was Shaedons age, 14 ppg and a year of college.

Also, more importantly, their younger players have had more experience than Shaedon, Scoot and DC, and in the case of SGA, were drafted higher and had a higher ceiling than Simons (who was drafted the same year as SGA, and is oddly enough a year younger than SGA).

Take out Jerami (for the love of god, please take out Jerami) and the average age and experience on this team drops a bit. If you go on rotation players (so no Duop, Walker, Rupes and 2-ways) their total is 258ish for 11 players.

RW3 27, DA 26, Simons, 25, DBHooper 25, Tou 24, DAvdija 24, Murray 24, Sharpe 21, Scoot 20, DC 20, Rupes 20.

And even that's misleading, because RW3 barely plays. Take him out, and they're at 231 for 10 players.

Hold on a minute, let me type up a quippy retort.
 
all of that is probably accurate, but still, over the last 4 seasons

OKC: 24 wins-->40 wins-->57 wins-->68 wins (projected)
Port: 27 wins-->33 wins-->21 wins-->30 wins (projected)

pretty big difference in trajectory

I'm also not a big fan of strictly comparing age vs age of players. As you mentioned, experience is a factor. Sharpe is in his 3rd season. When SGA was in his 3rd season, he averaged 24 pts, 5 reb, 6 ast with a PER of 21.6 (Sharpe 14.7) and a .623 TS% (Sharpe .555). SGA was less than a year older then, than Sharpe is now

Sharpe vs SGA is probably an unfair gauge. SGA was 1st team All-NBA at 24. Unlikely Sharpe gets to that level in 2-3 years

Sharpe vs Jalen Williams seems more appropriate. Then we get into their pre-NBA experience and how big an advantage that gives Williams. But one thing about that that advantage is since both players are playing NBA games now, and Williams is getting playoff experience, Sharpe mat not ever overcome that pre-NBA advantage Williams has[/QUOTE ]
Sounds like talent + experience is important.
 
View attachment 69645

7 teams with average ages less than a year older than Portland

OKC 30-6 (22-4 without Holmgren)
Hou 25-12
Memp 24-14 (Morant has only played 20 games)
Orl 22-17 (with heavy injuries)

no law says a young team has to be bad
Are you comparing our TALENT LEVEL to those teams? You’re not right?
 
Phi loses McCain for the season. Get on the horn Joe. Tale him off their hands!!
 
Phi loses McCain for the season. Get on the horn Joe. Tale him off their hands!!
They have 3 giant salaries then lots of small potatoes, I don’t see how they can trade for any of our vets. It would take 5-6 guys to fit Grant or Simon’s contract to make a trade.
 
Pretty sad PDX doesn't have one player of the best 25 players, under 25.
 
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Good coaches get the most out of their players. They have a good scheme and get them to buy into it.

I look at Taylor Jenkins in Memphis. They’re a really good team that plays above what their talent level on the team is. From top to bottom they aren’t one of the best rosters in the league. Not close. But every year they have guys who are unexpected contributors and buy into their role perfectly.

Jayden Wells a 2nd round pick has started for them all year. Pippen Jr has a major role. Last year it was Laraivia and Konchar.

Degnault is another one. They became a playoff team before anyone expected them to and the whole team buys into their defensive concept. He has every one of those guys playing like a dog.

Kerr is another one. This years particular roster outside of Curry is straight up hot garbage. They’re still a .500 team and will probably be a playoff team because they at least play defense at a respectable level.

Spoelstra is another. They have a couple good players. But generally their starting lineups are a mish mash of who’s? They always play hard and will probably be a playoff team again.
Warriors have been awful. They’ve lost 15 of their last 22 games. The playoffs are probably not in their future. They are a bad example for the point you are making.
 
Wow. Firing the coach really helped the Kings. Blew out the Celtics at home. 6 game win streak. Sabonis grabbed 28 rebounds.
 
Sixers lose at home to Pelicans. What an embarrassment. So much talent, can’t get it together.
 
The Pels won tonight without Zion. There is no way they're staying in the bottom three or with a worse record than us. Too many guys on that team that can win a game on there own let alone together.
 
The Pels won tonight without Zion. There is no way they're staying in the bottom three or with a worse record than us. Too many guys on that team that can win a game on there own let alone together.

I expect lots of continued injuries. They are 11 wins out of 10th seed. Just to get to a .500 record they'd have to go 34-10 the rest of the way. Ain't happening. Their best outcome for this season is a top-4 pick
 
I noticed that

I also noticed that of the 9 youngest teams, 4 have not only winning records, but have the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 9th best records in the league. 4 of the 9 youngest teams are in the top-10 teams in the league, and a 5th team has a .500 record. Meaning that only 4 of the 9 youngest teams have losing records.

I'm willing to grant that there could be some correlation to being a young team and finding more ways to lose games than win them. But that list of the 9 youngest teams, all within a year in average age, demonstrates that youth isn't quite as big a factor as many imagine. Looks like management and roster decisions have a much bigger impact

My still standing observation for a contender has been the majority of playing time goes to the MVP candidate and his supporting cast of three 17ppg capable players (or a dominant, skilled DPOY type like Rodman/Draymond/Ben Wallace). 3/5 of those starters must play defense. Bench depth (6th man and/or young player).

Most championship teams throughout history have featured this.

And many of these young, up and coming teams have done well in acquiring all these parts - namely, Houston, Memphis (especially if Wells or Edey pans out), and OKC...maybe Detroit if they balance their roster out a bit as they're currently a .500 team. Charlotte might be here but they're facing a boatload of injuries so it's not so clear, just yet. Orlando is missing one more guy - probably Simons tbh or maybe healthy Carter Jr.

Either way, my point is that this is why all these young teams have just popped in out of nowhere and are taking top seeding or play-in positioning away from veteran star studded rosters. They're literally constructing 10-12 year windows that match up with the typical blueprint of contending teams. This is not something that was present amongst young teams, even five years ago. Might be a signal of a new era.

For Portland, it's not as far off as one might think but there's work to be done. They are where OKC was before acquring Holmgren. Obviously, hinging your bets on acquiring a Top 2 draft pick like Holmgren is not reliable but that's what it'll take.

Otherwise, it's Sharpe and Deni (who has showcased he can score at will and is 17ppg per 36). Clingan provides defense and rebounding and I projected prior to the draft that he has Nurkic type offensive potential but that remains to be seen.

Now, I think that Portland might be stuck indefinitely with a Scoot-Simons-Sharpe rotation unless they get Harper. That's okay since Simons is a 17ppg guy. But you'd need to get the 4 that can pass/defend/score to makeup for Scoot-Simons combined limitations on defense and with playmaking. Ideally, that's Flagg or maybe Demin (could've been Amen too).

Because you look at OKC, Houston, Memphis, and Orlando. They have versatile star players at the 4. All championship teams in the modern era have them (ex. Lebron, AD, Love, Draymond, Giannis, Siakam, Tatum, Gordon) so if Portland wants to get to where Houston, Memphis, OKC, Orlando are, you gotta get that player.

Unfortunately, it's not Camara or Grant since they tend to stagnate with the ball in their hands. Camara is actually probably the bench depth, who tend to play meaningful minutes as a specialist role player.
 
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