We got the #3 pick. Discuss the possibilities. (1 Viewer)

[BIG Q]

I think Orlando is gonna go after pick 3 hard if Scoot is there.

Suggs/Franz/#6

for

#3/Nas/Filler

No need for Suggs. He is their bust. Take Franz, 6 and 11

 

[LayneStaley]

No need for Suggs. He is their bust. Take Franz, 6 and 11

If that happened I wonder what kinda haul 6/11/Ant would bring back? If Dame wants vets I can’t see is taking 2 lotto picks to camp.

 

[wizenheimer]

So honesty IS the best policy.

yes, but in marriage, insanity is a better defense

 

[illmatic99]

26 min mark.

Givony thinks Portland keeps the pick and selects between whoever falls among either Miller or Scoot.

Given his connections to Schmitz, I give this some weight.

 

[BBert]

yes, but in marriage, insanity is a better defense

That's how you got into that mess in the first place. May as well roll with it.

 

[wizenheimer]

Sub WCJ for Suggs and I might consider it. We'd need to send more money back

ok, that's overselling value of the 3rd pick, by a lot, in my view. Wendall Carter+Franz Wagner+ #6 for #3? That's 34 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists as the price of moving from 6 to 3. I think Orlando would balk hard at that

now, moving up 3 slots that high in a draft order is a substantial leap, so the Blazers can't sell the 3 cheaply. If this is truly a 3 player draft I'd think a more realistic trade would be Wagner + 6 + 11 for 3. Orlando would probably find that too steep though unless they really really wanted Scoot

I don't know what the Blazers would do with 6 + 11 + 23 in the same draft though

 

[Strenuus]

ok, that's overselling value of the 3rd pick, by a lot, in my view. Wendall Carter+Franz Wagner+ #6 for #3? That's 34 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists as the price of moving from 6 to 3. I think Orlando would balk hard at that

now, moving up 3 slots that high in a draft order is a substantial leap, so the Blazers can't sell the 3 cheaply. If this is truly a 3 player draft I'd think a more realistic trade would be Wagner + 6 + 11 for 3. Orlando would probably find that too steep though unless they really really wanted Scoot

I don't know what the Blazers would do with 6 + 11 + 23 in the same draft though

Probably get the clone of Zach Collins in there somewhere.

 

[Samuel]

What about keeping the pick and freeing up future picks to grab Bridges with Simons?

Then send out Watford, Keon and your less favored developmental players for 2nds and bring in vets to fill out your rotation.

 

[riverman]

What about keeping the pick and freeing up future picks to grab Bridges with Simons?

Then send out Watford, Keon and your less favored developmental players for 2nds and bring in vets to fill out your rotation.

I'd rather send out Nas than Watford

 

[HoopsFanAZ]

If Scoot is BPA at 2 and Charlotte doesn’t take him because of LaMelo as a 6’7 PG who is fond of the ball, then the bidding begins and exactly everyone knows what Portland (likely) wants: a high quality forward to be Dame’s #2.

Siakam is a year from UFA and wanting $$$. FVV and Trent want theirs this summer. Add in Poeltl. Then OG opts out next summer. Siakam is the odd man out to build around Scottie Barnes.

They already need guard depth. Simons and #3 in a package should be an improvement.
Dame, Sharpe, Siakam and Grant is the best since LMA … better IMHO.

 

[Predator]

Once workouts start, depending on his shooting, I think we will hear some Amen Thompson chatter

 

[Strenuus]

What about keeping the pick and freeing up future picks to grab Bridges with Simons?

Then send out Watford, Keon and your less favored developmental players for 2nds and bring in vets to fill out your rotation.

Bridges only gets here if we send the #3 along with anything else.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Perhaps I'm undervaluing #3, but I just don't see how Orlando considers Wagner/6/11 even close to reasonable. If that were offered, I think we'd absolutely have to jump at that, and hope it gets approved by the league before Orlando changes their minds.

 

[Strenuus]

Once workouts start, depending on his shooting, I think we will hear some Amen Thompson chatter

It would have been fun to see the tanking quips if Amen was the consensus #1 draft pick of the year lol. "Can I get an Amen?!"

 

[42N8Bounce]

Perhaps I'm undervaluing #3, but I just don't see how Orlando considers Wagner/6/11 even close to reasonable. If that were offered, I think we'd absolutely have to jump at that, and hope it gets approved by the league before Orlando changes their minds.

I posted this in another thread. The stat numbers agree with you -

Interesting site here that breaks down the value of each draft position.

The 3rd pick is given a relative value of 66.75.
The 23rd pick is given a relative value of 20.00.
Total value = 86.75

Orlando at 6 (52.75) + 11 (40.00) = 92.75

For this example, Orlando giving up the 6 & 11 picks would be valued at 92.75 compared to the single value of the #3 pick of 66.75. Add in the value of Wagner, and that looks like a lopsided trade in the favor of the Blazers. Take it and run!

 

[wizenheimer]

What about keeping the pick and freeing up future picks to grab Bridges with Simons?

Then send out Watford, Keon and your less favored developmental players for 2nds and bring in vets to fill out your rotation.

what..why Watford?

people want to go for a youth movement, with or without Dame. Watford is only 22. He's got decent size and length; has good handles for his size; can dribble, pass, and rebound. Plays ok defense.

He's a good option as a 7-9 player in a rotation. Plus, he's signed for less than 2M/year; quite a bargain and the Blazers need bargain players

I don't see any good reason, at all, to dump him

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I posted this in another thread. The stat numbers agree with you -

Interesting site here that breaks down the value of each draft position.

The 3rd pick is given a relative value of 66.75.
The 23rd pick is given a relative value of 20.00.
Total value = 86.75

Orlando at 6 (52.75) + 11 (40.00) = 92.75

For this example, Orlando giving up the 6 & 11 picks would be valued at 92.75 compared to the single value of the #3 pick of 66.75. Add in the value of Wagner, and that looks like a lopsided trade in the favor of the Blazers. Take it and run!

The problem is some years the #3 has little difference in value vs #7. Other years that difference is enormous.

Just looking at a historical average but applying that to a specific draft year is a very inaccurate way to build assets on an NBA team.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

what..why Watford?

people want to go for a youth movement, with or without Dame. Watford is only 22. He's got decent size and length; has good handles for his size; can dribble, pass, and rebound. Plays ok defense.

He's a good option as a 7-9 player in a rotation. Plus, he's signed for less than 2M/year; quite a bargain and the Blazers need bargain players

I don't see any good reason, at all, to dump him

Perhaps poster was just trying to get salaries to match and wasn't thinking of Watford as relevant. Blazers could probably throw in Knox or a sign and traded Reddish instead though.

Only reason I would trade Watford is if another team really wanted him and it was part of a larger package that provided the Blazers with some prime assets. For example in a Dame trade, if the trading partner was very concerned about depth maybe they'd view Watford as very useful depth, but are shipping the Blazers multiple unprotected first round picks as well as superior young players back.

I find those types of scenarios very unlikely, so yes I agree with you, Blazers should likely keep Watford regardless of the direction of the team.

 

[wizenheimer]

Perhaps I'm undervaluing #3, but I just don't see how Orlando considers Wagner/6/11 even close to reasonable. If that were offered, I think we'd absolutely have to jump at that, and hope it gets approved by the league before Orlando changes their minds.

you're probably right

objectively?....it could be that Wagner + #11 for #3 balances the scales. But, if this is truly a 2 player draft after Wemby, it could be that Wagner + 6 is more balanced...or that could be a heavy Blazer lean

I think the next 3-4 weeks of the pre-draft combine, individual workouts, and interviews will reveal a lot. Of course, the phony leaks, gaslighting, deflections, and outright lies will be rampant....fun times!

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Bridges only gets here if we send the #3 along with anything else.

If they're unwilling to part with Claxton, it would be interesting to see if we can get Bridges without giving up Ant, and instead ship Ant elsewhere.

 

[tykendo]

what..why Watford?

people want to go for a youth movement, with or without Dame. Watford is only 22. He's got decent size and length; has good handles for his size; can dribble, pass, and rebound. Plays ok defense.

He's a good option as a 7-9 player in a rotation. Plus, he's signed for less than 2M/year; quite a bargain and the Blazers need bargain players

I don't see any good reason, at all, to dump him

Plus he's played against REAL NBA talent, and played pretty damn well. And continues to bring more to the table each year.

 

[wizenheimer]

Perhaps poster was just trying to get salaries to match and wasn't thinking of Watford as relevant. Blazers could probably throw in Knox or a sign and traded Reddish instead though.

Only reason I would trade Watford is if another team really wanted him and it was part of a larger package that provided the Blazers with some prime assets. For example in a Dame trade, if the trading partner was very concerned about depth maybe they'd view Watford as very useful depth, but are shipping the Blazers multiple unprotected first round picks as well as superior young players back.

I find those types of scenarios very unlikely, so yes I agree with you, Blazers should likely keep Watford regardless of the direction of the team.

no, he said send out Watford + others for 2nd's

obviously Watford will never be a star. He's unlikely to be a good starter; 22 is young, but it's old enough to make mostly valid projections. His ceiling may be as a '2nd-unit-swiss-army-knife-glue-guy'. That's not indispensable value, but it's also not something you toss away for a 2nd

 

[inconceivable]

Plus he's played against REAL NBA talent, and played pretty damn well. And continues to bring more to the table each year.

Watford provides positive value/$$. He's like Dray

 

[inconceivable]

If they're unwilling to part with Claxton, it would be interesting to see if we can get Bridges without giving up Ant, and instead ship Ant elsewhere.

I like this way of thinking.

#3 + Ant for Bridges alone seems an overpay on our part to me. Admittedly, I could be unfair because I want the blazers to win every trade

 

[twobullz]

Perhaps poster was just trying to get salaries to match and wasn't thinking of Watford as relevant. Blazers could probably throw in Knox or a sign and traded Reddish instead though.

Only reason I would trade Watford is if another team really wanted him and it was part of a larger package that provided the Blazers with some prime assets. For example in a Dame trade, if the trading partner was very concerned about depth maybe they'd view Watford as very useful depth, but are shipping the Blazers multiple unprotected first round picks as well as superior young players back.

I find those types of scenarios very unlikely, so yes I agree with you, Blazers should likely keep Watford regardless of the direction of the team.

Yeah I would think Walker would go before Watford, unless another team was demanding Watford. They have similar contracts and Watford has shown a lot more.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

no, he said send out Watford + others for 2nd's

obviously Watford will never be a star. He's unlikely to be a good starter; 22 is young, but it's old enough to make mostly valid projections. His ceiling may be as a '2nd-unit-swiss-army-knife-glue-guy'. That's not indispensable value, but it's also not something you toss away for a 2nd

Ok yeah I tend to agree I would keep Watford over a 2nd.

Now if it was a super valuable 2nd, such as the Hornets 2nd in the next few years, that would be worth more. If its Denver 2nd the next few years then no, I'm not doing the deal.

There is an argument that Watford only really has value the next two season, as after that he will be an unrestricted free agent thus paid likely close to his market value. So if the Blazers aren't trying to contend in the next two years, having his production in excess of salary is sort of a waste for this team. So I can see where it could make sense to trade him to a contending team that needs depth immediately for 2nd round picks. That certainly doesn't have to be done this summer though, as even in that type of scenario, its fine to wait until the season or deadline to get something back for him. If he improves, he might even approach the realm of being worth a low first.

 

[wizenheimer]

I like this way of thinking.

#3 + Ant for Bridges alone seems an overpay on our part to me. Admittedly, I could be unfair because I want the blazers to win every trade

it would definitely be an overpay for the Mikal Bridges of his first 360 games when he averaged 13-4-2; even with his all NBA defense

but it wouldn't be an overpay for the Mikal Bridges from the 27 games he played for Brooklyn when he averaged 26-5-3 while playing all NBA defense

the issue is which Bridges would you be getting? Which one is the real Bridges or is it quite likely that the real Bridges lies somewhere in between on his extremely wide spectrum. I've seen Bridges a lot but I remain unconvinced he is really the #1 option he appeared to be in Brooklyn. He's definitely a high-level talent, especially when you factor defense. And if you pencil him in as swinging between SF and SG his size seems right.

personally, I'd say if the Blazers can get him for Ant + 3 they are doing fine. But I would NOT add more draft capital than the 3rd pick unless it's 2nd round picks.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I like this way of thinking.

#3 + Ant for Bridges alone seems an overpay on our part to me. Admittedly, I could be unfair because I want the blazers to win every trade

Yeah I really like this #3 pick more as I do research and think about where this franchise roster talent is at. I was super disappointed not to get #1 after that lottery commercial break, but have quickly moved on to being very excited with the second best pick we've had since 1984.

Now if the Nets are super high on that pick and offer both Bridges & Claxton for Nurk & #3 then yes I do that. We still have Ant, and we upgrade two starting spots. Unlikely they go for that trade. But if they are super high on Scoot/Miller its not impossible.

Trading the #3 needs to get the Blazers knocking on the door of contention immediately. They don't need to be favorites, but they need to be realistically in the mix. Otherwise just keep the pick, draft BPA, and take the time to evaluate what to do with Dame/rest of the roster afterwards.

 

[wizenheimer]

There is an argument that Watford only really has value the next two season, as after that he will be an unrestricted free agent thus paid likely close to his market value.

are you sure he will be UFA? You're probably right but I seem to recall a provision about when a two-way is converted to a regular contract the the season of conversion doesn't count toward that 4-seasons-in-the-league = UFA standard. He'd be in the category of a 2nd round pick who signed a 3-year deal

probably not the case but we also don't know all the details of the new CBA either

 

[Strenuus]

If they're unwilling to part with Claxton, it would be interesting to see if we can get Bridges without giving up Ant, and instead ship Ant elsewhere.

There's no earthly way we're getting bridges without giving up #3 and ant or sharpe. I want to trade ant, but I still don't think #3 and ant is enough, imo.