We got the #3 pick. Discuss the possibilities. (1 Viewer)

[SharpesTriumph]

I'm not sure what I expect on draft night. There are so many unknowns.

Who is going to be there at 3?

What stars are even really available?

What value does the 3rd pick really have?

I admit that it's more likely I'm going to be disappointed on draft night. I'd be happy if we just kept the pick and took BPA.

Yeah BPA probably has the most fans happy. We also won't know what other options were realistically available so there is nothing precise or tangible to be upset about.

If we trade for Brown or Bridges I'll be more excited to think about our team in the playoffs next season, but less excited long term with Sharpe's future, while more concerned of the risk the win now moves flop. We'll always look back on that player at #3 and wonder what could've been. That could be a Jermaine Oneal 2.0 or even much worse situation.

Dream scenario is if we can do one of the above trades and also a second trade to flip other assets or future picks for acquiring a second all star. That would make us 2000 era contenders. Just seems extremely unlikely both these opportunities would be available and that Cronin/ownership can execute it.

One thing I will say if we draft BPA - its not certain that we won't trade that draftee a few days or weeks later. Perhaps the veterans we want become available in trade when their teams situations chance in free agencies and when other trades are completed. But of course is also not certain we won't flip Dame weeks later if we draft BPA. Its very rare to have a team in the Blazers situation that could go so strongly in such wildly different directions over a manner of weeks.

If we do trade the #3 pick for a veteran we know for certain we are trying to win now with Dame. If we draft BPA it'll be unclear if we are running it back, going young, or going to flip some youth for vets. Cronins comments at a press conference could be very telling of the next moves in that situation. If BPA is Scoot I'd assume its much less likely we just run it back adding him, and if its Miller much more likely we run it back.

 

[damianlillard]

For those who think Amen should be picked third, what do you think is his ceiling?

Assuming he fix his shot, something along the line of a slightly better scoring Scottie Pippen. Amen already has the tools to be a great defender, playmaker, and rebounder much like pippen. But it come down to his shooting. That’s his realistic ceiling. I’ve seen people compare him to SGA which is possible

 

[Natebishop3]

If Houston wanted to move up to 3, what would we want from them?

4+ who?

This is assuming that we want Amen. Let's say Scoot drops. They want Scoot. What would we want?

 

[TBpup]

I mean look at pick #1 - you have Olowakandi, Oden, Anthony Bennett, etc. Theres busts at every single pick of the draft.

Theres also veterans who were thought of for certain allstars then their career ended from injuries or immaturity or being overhyped the next year. Every move has some risk and uncertainty.

Wasn't Fultz #1 just a couple years ago?

One of my best friends played on that college team with Olowakandi. When it came out that he was projected to be a top NBA pick, they all thought that NBA scouts were idiots. He has told that story several times about teammates would just chuckle and comment that 'whatever team picks him, that is not going to end well.'

Apparently the scouts didn't interview teammates.

 

[wizenheimer]

If Houston wanted to move up to 3, what would we want from them?

4+ who?

This is assuming that we want Amen. Let's say Scoot drops. They want Scoot. What would we want?

#20

or 3 + 23 for 4 + Sengun

 

[illmatic99]

Assuming he fix his shot, something along the line of a slightly better scoring Scottie Pippen. Amen already has the tools to be a great defender, playmaker, and rebounder much like pippen. But it come down to his shooting. That’s his realistic ceiling. I’ve seen people compare him to SGA which is possible

These are some really lofty projections. I did ask for ceiling so maybe valid, but nothing he did on the court has come close to these names so far at his OTE level, so it would be based completely on his physical tools.

Not seeing the SGA thing tbh. Amen shot less than 30% from the midrange.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

If Houston wanted to move up to 3, what would we want from them?

4+ who?

This is assuming that we want Amen. Let's say Scoot drops. They want Scoot. What would we want?

I'd try to get their #20 and Sengun.

 

[damianlillard]

These are some really lofty projections. I did ask for ceiling so maybe valid, but nothing he did on the court has come close to these names so far at his OTE level, so it would be based completely on his physical tools.

Not seeing the SGA thing tbh. Amen shot less than 30% from the midrange.

I don’t see the SGA comparison but people have mentioned it

 

[wizenheimer]

I don’t see the SGA comparison but people have mentioned it

in college SGA shot 50% on two's, 40% on three's, and 82% of FT's. Amen shot a scintillating 57% of FG's but 23% on three's and 65% of FT's

 

[blazerfan11]

If Houston wanted to move up to 3, what would we want from them?

4+ who?

This is assuming that we want Amen. Let's say Scoot drops. They want Scoot. What would we want?

Houston has the 20th pick in the upcoming draft.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

- Draft miller
- Nurk / Nas / 23 for Ayton
- Ant / future draft capital for OG

Dame
Sharpe
OG
Grant
Ayton
Miller 6th Man
Thybulle
Winslow (Big Backup Playmaker)
Backup C ??

I really dig this. I think they gotta use the pick because of what the contract means for us.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Miller is a phenomenal player. No question. He can fill it up.

But he has not interviewed greatly and anyway you slice it, he delivered the gun that killed a single mother. There are red flags and none are about talent.

Practically everyone I hear has questions about his athleticism and ability to finish. They question his upside. This is the majority. I think he'll be good for sure. Not sure I know how good.

 

[RonBrewer]

Practically everyone I hear has questions about his athleticism and ability to finish. They question his upside. This is the majority. I think he'll be good for sure. Not sure I know how good.

I think his floor is a better shooting but less athletic Robert Horry. The question is his ceiling. I agree with you

 

[blazerfan11]

If you look at Lebron James as a rookie, he shot 43.8% on 2-pointers and 29% on 3-pointers. Amen's first season and highlights might look like Lebron's as a rookie.
Amen is always a threat to attack the hoop with his quickness and athleticism, and can make excellent passes from his drives.
He should also be able to help on defense with the same tools.

At 1:26 when the announcer says "I don't know how you describe that (pass)," contorting like that while passing is something of a trademark of Amen.

 

[LayneStaley]

For those who think Amen should be picked third, what do you think is his ceiling?

A 6’7 Ja Morant is my “ceiling”

 

[BankTeller]

3 for Wagner and 6. Ant, Nurk, 23 and a future first for Ayton and Payne. Draft BPA at 6. BPA at 43. Backup C with the TPMLE.

Dame, Shaedon, Wagner, Grant, Ayton, pick 6, Matisse, Payne, TPMLE backup C. Trendon, Keon, Knox, Drewbanks, pick 43 battling it out for end of bench PT.

Wagner would certainly help both timelines. Only going into year 3 but is good enough to help us compete. I would do this if one of the Thompsons are available, which is almost a sure thing.

Dame/Simons/Wagner/Grant/Nurk

That’s a pretty good starting 5, all things considered. Wagner + one of the twins > Mikal or OG to me. Your starting wings of the future would be all set up too with Sharpe and Ausar, and I feel like Wagner is good enough of a playmaker that he can initiate an offense in spurts.

But I’m not all that interested in Ayton. I’d be completely fine with trading for Ayton at a cheaper price tag. But at this point, he’s just a good, but not AS level player, on an AS salary. He’s 25, I’m not sure how much potential you can still squeeze out. We already have to pay a guy like that this summer already, having two combined with Dame’s salary is a nightmarish scenario.

Between Sharpe/Wagner/Ausar (or another wing at #6), there’s enough young guys that have ‘star potential’ to be on. In the end, too many guys who have then are going to become an ego-filled environment. That’s a character issue, and Ayton already concerns me in that area. Look for guys that fit the team vision and play-style instead. If Lively is it, find a way to acquire him by the end of the night. Then bring in the best backup C an MLE can buy.

Dame/Ant/Mays/Franz
Ant/Sharpe/Thybulle/Ausar
Franz/Ausar/Sharpe/Thybulle/Nas
Grant/Franz/Watford/Nas
Nurk/MLE/Lively/Watford

I’d rather bank on Lively’s potential at being a high level defensive anchor and a solid backup C to help Nurk hold the C rotation down. Maybe Badji gets another 2-way deal. That also saves us from trading another 1st. Ayton isn’t worth more than one 1st in the 20s, and at $30+m/year, I’d rather just not have him. 1sts should be used to attach to Nurk/Ant/Nas to find an upgrade in the case that Sharpe and/or Ausar show they need more minutes.

 

[BankTeller]

If you look at Lebron James as a rookie, he shot 43.8% on 2-pointers and 29% on 3-pointers. Amen's first season and highlights might look like Lebron's as a rookie.
Amen is always a threat to attack the hoop with his quickness and athleticism, and can make excellent passes from his drives.
He should also be able to help on defense with the same tools.

How much better do you think Amen is than Ausar? If the possibility was out there, would you rather have Ausar and Franz or just Amen?

In theory, Ausar has all the ability Amen has minus the flashy playmaking. Ausar’s looks like he has a tigher handle right now, but for sure can play off the ball and has a smoother stroke. Defensively, he can still be elite on and off ball. Franz playmaking is fairly good at a lower volume than Amen and you have the right to offer him an extension this summer or just wait till FA in 2025.

 

[illmatic99]

they certainly interview well

 

[RR7]

I've watched nothing of the twins, have just looked at stats. Am curious why Amen is considered the more PG of the 2, Ausar the wing, and Ausar averaged(just slightly) more assists?
Everything about them is intriguing and, at the same time, horrifying, considering their age, the league they played in, and their MKG-esque shooting

 

[illmatic99]

If you look at Lebron James as a rookie, he shot 43.8% on 2-pointers and 29% on 3-pointers. Amen's first season and highlights might look like Lebron's as a rookie.
Amen is always a threat to attack the hoop with his quickness and athleticism, and can make excellent passes from his drives.
He should also be able to help on defense with the same tools.

At 1:26 when the announcer says "I don't know how you describe that (pass)," contorting like that while passing is something of a trademark of Amen.

lebron also had otherworldy athleticism and was stronger than 99% of the players at his position on day 1 in the NBA.

Are you saying the ceiling for Amen is LeBron James? This is based on his game film against 16-18 yr olds while he shot like shit from pretty much everywhere outside of 3 feet?

 

[illmatic99]

I've watched nothing of the twins, have just looked at stats. Am curious why Amen is considered the more PG of the 2, Ausar the wing, and Ausar averaged(just slightly) more assists?
Everything about them is intriguing and, at the same time, horrifying, considering their age, the league they played in, and their MKG-esque shooting

he was the primary ball handler and initiated offense more. he seemed to be better at initiating plays on the fast break.

i've been reading more and more about these dudes and am convinced we need to look away. That OTE shit is like AAU without structure (and you know how ridiculous the AAU is).

 

[RR7]

they certainly interview well

damn those shooting forms do not make me excited. You think about someone like Jerami Grant who would catch a pass near his head, and have a quick flick from above his head. And their 3 point shots look like mine when I was too weak to shoot, where I had to come from all the way under my chin and push it up there. Ugh

 

[illmatic99]

Wagner would certainly help both timelines. Only going into year 3 but is good enough to help us compete. I would do this if one of the Thompsons are available, which is almost a sure thing.

Dame/Simons/Wagner/Grant/Nurk

That’s a pretty good starting 5, all things considered.

So you are effectively replacing Hart with Wagner and adding no veteran depth to the bench. This is enough to make us "compete" vs the shitshow we saw from OCT-FEB?

Returning to the court this October with a Dame/Ant backcourt AND Nurk still as a primary C without a two-way point of attack defender added to the lineup would be a disastrous offseason for me.

 

[blazerfan11]

How much better do you think Amen is than Ausar? If the possibility was out there, would you rather have Ausar and Franz or just Amen?

In theory, Ausar has all the ability Amen has minus the flashy playmaking. Ausar’s looks like he has a tigher handle right now, but for sure can play off the ball and has a smoother stroke. Defensively, he can still be elite on and off ball. Franz playmaking is fairly good at a lower volume than Amen and you have the right to offer him an extension this summer or just wait till FA in 2025.

Ausar is described as a functional shooter. Not good or great, but better than Amen. Ausar is more consistent on defense. So Ausar is likely to contribute more off-the-ball than Amen.
One person said the difference in athleticism is apparent, Amen is better than Ausar. As in generational athleticism. But Ausar has good athleticism too, and good passing ability.

 

[RR7]

I see the upside...I also see Isaac Okoro comps flying through my head.

 

[BankTeller]

For those who think Amen should be picked third, what do you think is his ceiling?

Oh man, this is a fun question.

Defensively, I think he be one of the best on ball defenders in the league. I don’t know who to actually compare him to, but maybe like a taller Marcus Smart. He has 3 more inches on his height and wingspan, and is a lot more athletic. I also wanted to say Kawhi, but Kawhi’s wingspan is a whole 3 inches longer than Ausar (crazy) and a lot of defensive ability is going to be genetics if everyone maxed out their potential. So taller Marcus Smart, Kawhi with a shorter wingspan, or anywhere in between on defense. I’m only using guys I’ve seen btw.

Offensively, he can be as good on the fast break as anyone we’ve ever seen. He’ll be better than Russ because he’s bigger and stronger, but he won’t be Lebron because Lebron in his prime was 270+lbs of muscle. If Amen is drafted here, my hope is that he isn’t relied on as much as Lebron has been throughout his career, but he has the Lamelo kind of passing gift. I think he averages as many apg as Lebron does when he reaches his prime.

The obvious glaring hole is his shooting. And because of that, it’s hard to project any more than that. So until we see more from him to say otherwise, his ceiling is a 6’7 (in shoes), 240lb (what I project his prime weight to be at), 7’0 wingspan with Russ’ athleticism and play style (minus the ego issues) combined with Lamelo’s playmaking and with 1st team all defense credentials.

If he shows signs of a shot, we can start thinking of adding more to his ceiling. If Dame is here for at least two more years, do we start seeing a guy who is Russ-level in the fast break but also can shoot 3’s at a 35%+ clip? Who knows. I am fairly certain that Amen loves basketball though and is dedicated to getting better. Dame loves those guys.

If you want to get hyperbolic with it, the potential of Amen and Sharpe would be like having prime Lebron and prime Kobe on the same team.

 

[illmatic99]

I see the upside...I also see Isaac Okoro comps flying through my head.

I see Dyson Daniels and MCW. Both had a stronger body of work before entering the league.

 

[RonBrewer]

they certainly interview well

Love these dudes. Would take both if possible

 

[illmatic99]

Oh man, this is a fun question.

Defensively, I think he be one of the best on ball defenders in the league. I don’t know who to actually compare him to, but maybe like a taller Marcus Smart. He has 3 more inches on his height and wingspan, and is a lot more athletic. I also wanted to say Kawhi, but Kawhi’s wingspan is a whole 3 inches longer than Ausar (crazy) and a lot of defensive ability is going to be genetics if everyone maxed out their potential. So taller Marcus Smart, Kawhi with a shorter wingspan, or anywhere in between on defense. I’m only using guys I’ve seen btw.

Offensively, he can be as good on the fast break as anyone we’ve ever seen. He’ll be better than Russ because he’s bigger and stronger, but he won’t be Lebron because Lebron in his prime was 270+lbs of muscle. If Amen is drafted here, my hope is that he isn’t relied on as much as Lebron has been throughout his career, but he has the Lamelo kind of passing gift. I think he averages as many apg as Lebron does when he reaches his prime.

The obvious glaring hole is his shooting. And because of that, it’s hard to project any more than that. So until we see more from him to say otherwise, his ceiling is a 6’7 (in shoes), 240lb (what I project his prime weight to be at), 7’0 wingspan with Russ’ athleticism and play style (minus the ego issues) combined with Lamelo’s playmaking and with 1st team all defense credentials.

If he shows signs of a shot, we can start thinking of adding more to his ceiling. If Dame is here for at least two more years, do we start seeing a guy who is Russ-level in the fast break but also can shoot 3’s at a 35%+ clip? Who knows. I am fairly certain that Amen loves basketball though and is dedicated to getting better. Dame loves those guys.

If you want to get hyperbolic with it, the potential of Amen and Sharpe would be like having prime Lebron and prime Kobe on the same team.

thanks for the thoughtful response. i will respectfully disagree.

 

[Freshtown]

The dunc’ed on crew said that they thought with work, amen’s shooting ceiling could possibly be where Aaron Gordon or Scottie Barnes are right now.

thought that sounded about right.